Neodymium speaker prices?

Myth_103 · #1 06-21-2011, 01:18 PM

I may have missed the boat on this, but I haven't looked at speaker prices in 4-6 months and just noticed the insane price increases. Why did the kappalites as well as deltalites jump so much in price here lately? Inflation? Gas prices? Then again... I'm not sure that'd necessarily cause for the doubling. There goes my hobby of building bass cabinets!

rpsands · #2 06-21-2011, 01:18 PM

Search neodymium in the forum

BassmanPaul · #3 06-21-2011, 01:32 PM

Yep, it's been much discussed and probably cussed as well!

cbrophy · #4 06-21-2011, 01:40 PM

Blame the Chinese Gov't.

jmac · #5 06-21-2011, 01:43 PM

Here is a pretty good article from Pro Sound News.

Subscribe to Pro Sound News

Sorry, I couldn't figure out how to copy/paste the article. It's starts on the front page and continues on page 60.

Rafael · #6 06-21-2011, 02:36 PM

I actually did search the fori [forums?] and didn't find a whole lot about it...and I'm counting my lucky stars that I bought 5 10s before the price went through the roof! They already weren't cheap and now they're outa sight! On another point even if the unit cost to the mfg doubled as claimed in the article, it still fails to account for the huge increase, and points out an area of weakness in our retail model: Going from $10 to $20 in cost of one component results in a $50 to $60 increase at the retail level because every middleperson doubles the increase as they pass on the cost.

AwkwardLoudness · #7 06-21-2011, 05:00 PM

China announced a couple months ago that they would immediately reduce the amount of exported neodymium AND raise the price. There are efforts to ramp up mining of neodymium in the USA, but it's far from certain that this will reduce the price. It won't be happening soon anyway.

Here is a recent thread on the topic
The End of Neodymium Cabs?

Myth_103 · #8 06-21-2011, 06:03 PM

Well that is very disappointing. I guess you REALLY get what you pay for now!:/

Passinwind · #9 06-21-2011, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpsands

Search neodymium in the forum

That'll get you here.

Myth_103 · #10 06-21-2011, 08:06 PM

How do you figure companies selling cabs with neodymium speakers will react to that price hike?

Sundogue · #11 06-21-2011, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Myth_103

How do you figure companies selling cabs with neodymium speakers will react to that price hike?

The way they always do...

Discontinue production, or pass the cost onto the consumer.

R Baer · #12 06-21-2011, 09:24 PM

There have been a lot of recent developments in the neo issue and none of it is good. A recent email to me from Eminence was nothing but bad news. So much so that they are basically recommending their customers start looking into alternatives to their neo drivers. Here's just a bit from the email:

...On June 2nd, we were informed by our magnet supplier that they could not accept a recent order for neodymium magnets because (and I quote the supplier here),

"the rare earth mines have stopped selling until the Chinese Ministry of Minerals revises the 2011 quota. The existing quota for how much RE can be mined was set in December and will run out by August. That means unless they increase the quota, the mines will not be allowed to sell any more RE until January 2012. It is widely expected that the quota will be increased because too many factories would shut down. I just talked to some of our competitors that I get along with and they all told me the same thing, that no new quotes or orders are being accepted in China."

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sundogue

The way they always do...

Discontinue production, or pass the cost onto the consumer.

There really is no other option. I certainly couldn't stay in business long by charging the same price for my cabinets when my cost on the drivers has increased 100%. Folks, this isn't about us cabinet manufacturers gouging bass players to take advantage of the situation. The simple fact is that neo is becoming scarce for use in our industry. So much so, that we could be seeing the end of neo as a speaker magnet material.

...For the long term, we are currently skeptical of the viability for continued use of neodymium magnets in loudspeakers. We do not profess to be economist, but many factors lead us to this conclusion:

China’s domestic production quotas increase while export quotas decrease
China controls over 95% of the actively mined rare earth mineral reserves
No new mining projects outside China represent significant production volume that will be available for sale for non-government related applications
Hybrid car and windmill production dwarf neodymium usage in other industries as does the ability of these industry’s to strategically purchase and manage raw materials
There is some speculation that China will deplete their most manageable rare earth reserves within 10-20 years

Plstrns · #13 06-21-2011, 09:34 PM

I'd love to know where the actual profit is going. Didn't neodymium (hope that's right) prices double making the raw material less than a dollar more a pound? What are there, a dozen middlemen?

Sundogue · #14 06-21-2011, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Plstrns

I'd love to know where the actual profit is going. Didn't neodymium (hope that's right) prices double making the raw material less than a dollar more a pound? What are there, a dozen middlemen?

We are a fear based society that feeds off this crap. Yes, it's reality, but at the same time it's like chumming for sharks.

Neo prices are going up, let's all get our buckets out to rake in our share.

Nothing is better for the bottom line than making people afraid. Who stands to gain the most are the ones with the biggest buckets of chum. I feel bad for the guys holding thimbles and no guts.

DukeLeJeune · #15 06-21-2011, 10:01 PM

The bass cab industry is a rather small player in the neodymium market, and we can get by with ceramic magnets if we have to. Other industries are going to be much harder hit.

It will take about two years for new sources of neodymium to reach the market in significant quantities, and that may not restore stability to the market. Right now China holds most of the cards, and will be in a position to crush their fledgling competitors with low neodymium prices as soon as they begin to produce. So in two years we might see the beginning of a period of low neodymium prices, followed by skyrocketing prices once China's competitors have been put out of business (a similar chain of events is precisely why the Chinese neodymium industry has no competitors today). I've seen that sort of thing in another industry that I was involved in at one time, and in that industry the big player didn't have nearly the position of power that China enjoys in this case.

Plstrns · #16 06-21-2011, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DukeLeJeune

The bass cab industry is a rather small player in the neodymium market, and we can get by with ceramic magnets if we have to. Other industries are going to be much harder hit.

It will take about two years for new sources of neodymium to reach the market in significant quantities, and that may not restore stability to the market. Right now China holds most of the cards, and will be in a position to crush their fledgling competitors with low neodymium prices as soon as they begin to produce. So in two years we might see teh beginning of a period of low neodymium prices, followed by skyrocketing prices once China's competitors have been put out of business (which is precisely why the Chinese neodymium industry has no competitors today). I've seen that sort of thing in another industry that I was involved in at one time, and in that industry the big player didn't have nearly the position of power that China enjoys in this case.

Sounds like they use the W..mart business model.

seamonkey · #17 06-21-2011, 10:20 PM

There is a big consumer industry, and big industrial industry for Neodymium magnets
Want to bet that what is limited is exporting magnets?
The whole finished goods from China probably will not be limited, i.e. whole finished cabinets.

eastcoasteddie · #18 06-22-2011, 10:54 AM

I spoke to Dave at Avatar a few weeks ago about this. Once all their Neo cabs/speakers are sold, Avatar will only offer Ceramic magnet speakers/cabs.

Sundogue · #19 06-22-2011, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eastcoasteddie

I spoke to Dave at Avatar a few weeks ago about this. Once all their Neo cabs/speakers are sold, Avatar will only offer Ceramic magnet speakers/cabs.

That's too bad. The TB153 is a killer cab and there simply is no comparable ceramic driver that doesn't already cost more than the (currently priced) 3015LF and also weigh A LOT more.

Not to mention one that will work as well in that cab's internal volume.

craig.p · #20 06-22-2011, 12:12 PM

I agree with Duke that we can get by with non-neo magnets again. We have for decades, in some of the most-demanding environments.

Also you can bet your booty that the driver manufacturers are scrambling at this moment to tool up for drivers that, parameter-wise, are direct replacements for their (soon-to-expire) neo counterparts, so the cab builders don't have to change their designs -- because now is a great opportunity for those driver manufacturers either to lose cab customers or to keep them during this transitional period.