'09 Tour de France

[CapnSev]

4th of July prologue was today, with Lance being knocked out by two of his own teammates- both of whom are serious overall contenders.

With the list of names in this thing, it's going to be one heck of a Tour. I'm way excited for this year's Tour, and I think Lance might be in for more of a workout than he thinks.

Any predictions from the TB crowd?

[spade2you]

I think this one could be a real nail biter. My gut goes with Contador and perhaps Levi. As long as Astana works together, I can see a lot of podiums and them taking the most points as a team. I was surprised with Menchov and very surprised with Cavendish.

Still, good overall American and American team presence. I realize Lance probably isn't going finish in the top 5 he may fight to keep a nice spot in the top 10 or snag some stage wins. Despite winning the TDF several times, he didn't have the most single stage wins.

Regardless, perhaps with the US presence, it might rekindle road biking a bit.

[CapnSev]

I don't think Lance's ego will settle for less than a top 5 finish.

I also think having so many big guns on Astana is going to make the team implode, but we'll see.

I actually hope that the Tour doesn't stir up cycling any more than it already is. IMO, there's way too many people around here that ride/race with a snob complex. It always makes me laugh how many people I see every year riding out on the road in July though. It seems like the roads are covered with bikes during the Tour!

[spade2you]

Originally Posted by CapnSev

I don't think Lance's ego will settle for less than a top 5 finish.

I also think having so many big guns on Astana is going to make the team implode, but we'll see.

I actually hope that the Tour doesn't stir up cycling any more than it already is. IMO, there's way too many people around here that ride/race with a snob complex. It always makes me laugh how many people I see every year riding out on the road in July though. It seems like the roads are covered with bikes during the Tour!

I also have the same logistical concern with Astana. Working as a team will nothign short of guarantee good GC standings for Leipheimer and Contador. Getting greedy only shoots both of their chances. Levi seems to be a smart guy. Contador is talented, but I think his ego could make a few poor choices.

LOL, as for too many bikes, I live in the polar opposite. Motorists hate us and there really aren't a lot of racers. More often than not, men's 5 and women's 4 are together. Men's 1-3 are combined, which means a lot of the 3's will work their ass off to finish respectably in the races.

[CapnSev]

^ LOL! Bummer.

I guarantee that the criterium and hill climb races I'm doing in a couple weeks will be packed. I'm guessing there will be 80+ guys in the CAT 5s.

As for the Tour, my predictions are:

Either Lance or Contador wins overall. Contador hasn't lost a grand tour he's entered, but Lance is like the silent assassin. He'll probably explode in the mountains and kill everyone.

Cavendish - Green

Sastre - KOM

[fdeck]

Can we bet on who will be disqualified?

[spade2you]

I'm surprised you'd put Lance above Levi. Levi did very well in the ToC and Giro, although perhaps he's past his peak for the year and Lance was gearing up.

If I had to guess, I think there would be a total of about 100 riders across the board.

[doctorjazz]

I'm thinking Levi as my main pick for the Mellow Johnny, but I'm not counting Lance out just yet. I'd certainly like him to win, anyway.

[CapnSev]

Originally Posted by fdeck

Can we bet on who will be disqualified?

LOL! Just pick a name out of a hat!

(It will probably be some French dude first, like it usually is every year )

As far as putting Lance over Levi, judging by past tours, Levi just can't hang with Lance & co. in the mountains. Levi is a good all-around contender, but he lacks that "killer instinct" and attacking power. I'd like to see Levi win, but I don't think it's gonna happen.

[spade2you]

In terms of doping, I would guess that there's a lot and certain riders get a free pass for the sake of ratings.

[Scarlet Fire]

I'd love to see Levi win it, but I just don't think he has what it takes to hold onto a lead through the mountains. I'm guessing Contador will wind up winning it all at the end.

[doctorjazz]

Originally Posted by spade2you

In terms of doping, I would guess that there's a lot and certain riders get a free pass for the sake of ratings.

Well, duh. One of my favorite bits of doping history was Henri Desgrange reminding riders in the 1930 Tour that they had to bring their own drugs.

I'd generally concur with your statement, although to touch on one of the hot-button debates where doping is concerned I'd say that Lance isn't one of the "certain riders." Too many people would love to see him burn.

[fokof]

I would like to see Cadel Evans but he hasn't got the team behind to back him up.

I see Cancellara or Roman Kreuziger on the top podium.

[CapnSev]

Cavendish wins #1 today.

I don't see Cancellara anywhere near the podium at the finish. He'll be dropped hard in the mountains.

[Scarlet Fire]

Amazing finish to today's stage. That breakaway totally mixed everything up. The time trial tomorrow is going to be very interesting.

[bassteban]

We're watching the rerun now- only caught the latter half the first time through. Those Columbia guys are beautiful.

Edit: I am an idiot; I'm watching all those crashes again. It's like the severed head on the side of the road- can't look away.

[MJ5150]

Let me know when Lance is winning, then I'll start paying attention.



-Mike

[bassteban]

I hate getting sucked into this stuff- now I want/need a road bike.
PHIL LIGGETT ROCKS!

[EricF]

So far, things have gone pretty much as I would have guessed...

Stage 1 - Cancellara proved that he really is the best in the world against the clock. The guy is a total stud, but not an overall contender. Contador showed that he is the one to beat for the overall. His climbing is spectacular, but being able to TT like he did on opening day sent a big message to the rest of his competition. With Astana putting guys inthe top 4 of the TT, I expect the Team TT to be a slaughter by Bruneel's squad - assuming they can keep the group rolling smoothly. Based on what we've seen in the past, however, Bruneel knows how to get his team ready for the event. Lance rode the TT well, but his age, 4 years away from racing, and his injury earlier this year have left him a half-step behind the best of the best. A 10th place is totally respectable, but this is not the same Lance that we knew before. I expect him to suffer in the mountains, and I hope his ego will allow him to support Contador - who Lance himself has claimed to be the best stage racer in the world right now. It would be a huge disappointment if it turns into an ugly, bitter battle like the days of LeMond and Hinault. I'm not too worried about Kloden or Levi trying to steal the show. I think they're pro enough to do their job. A top 10 for Lance is likely, but I doubt we'll see him on the podium.

Stage 2 - Cavendish did what he does best, and we once again saw why he's the best sprinter in the game. His team could not have done a better job delivering him to the finish. Hincapie and Renshaw drove the pace so hard that gaps started opening in the front end of the group, which only made Cavendish's job easier. Once the little Manx rocket lit the fuse, no one could match his acceleration, and was still increasing his gap over his chasers as he crossed the line. That's one fast kid!!!

Like it was 2 years ago, I expect the big GC battle to be between Contador and Evans. Sastre could certainly get into the mix, too, but I think his win last year was largely due to the fact that Astana was not in the race. I also expect to see some real fireworks by the Schleck brothers. More than anything else, I want to see a good race.

[Passinwind]

Originally Posted by MJ5150

Let me know when Lance is winning, then I'll start paying attention.

Could be soon. He's up to third after three stages.