BURKS OFFICIAL TB NBA 2008 Thread

[burk48237]

Here's how I rank the contenders, and a few choice comments about the pretenders as we near the All Star break:

First a few comments about NBA Championship necessities:
1) A good point guard, teams that turn the ball over, that don't play good D at the point of attack, and don't get easy shots can't win.
2) Good individual defensive players, team defense works in the regular season (Chicago Bulls last year), but during the playoffs, an opposing coach has a chance to concentrate on mismatches.
3) Good free throw shooting
4) A dirty work big man, who can defend in the post, rebound, shot block, and get some easy baskets.
5) A low post scorer for when the offense slows down.

All of the Contenders this year are flawed, and it's very possible that none of the top three won't even be in the finals, but I doubt it. Obviously a major trade could change this.

CONTENDERS

1)Boston Celtics
Why they win: The have three great players whose styles complement each other. They play tenacious defense. They appear to be committed to team play
Why they won't: One of those three players is injury prone (Ray Allen). Their depth is not tested or playoff quality. Lack of tested quality at point guard.

2)Detroit Pistons
Why they win: They have a balanced attack with an improved bench. A very good point guard and Rasheed Wallace. They have some very good individual defensive players and shoot at the foul line. They take care of the ball better then anyone else in the league.
Why they won't: Rasheed Wallace. Bench hasn't been thru the playoffs yet. Can Flip Sanders coach in the playoffs?

3)TIE Dallas Mavericks:
For the record I think they're a bunch of chokers and won't win in the finals, but the other teams in the west have some big flaws.
Why They Win: Balanced offensive attack, with a couple of really hard to guard players. They work hard on defense, have a good bench and they're athletic
Why They'll Lose: Dirk Nowitzki, lack of quality and decision making at the point. They have lots of bad match-ups on individual defense.

3) TIE San Antonio Spurs:
I wanted to pick them to come out of the west, but they're are playing with a nagging lack of urgency, and while they've been good, they have been inconsistent from year to year, and never made the finals twice in a row.
Why they win: Their the Spurs, Great coaching, and three of the most fundamentally sound players in the game. The second best low post presence of the contenders.
Why they won't: They're old. They turn the ball over, while T. Parker is flashy, he can be sloppy with the ball, and he gets hurt by bigger point guards (C. Billups, D. Williams)

4) New Orleans Hornets
Why they win: Chris Paul (the player I would pick to build a team around). A good low post presence with Tyson Chandler. Great athleticism in the most underrated player in the league, David West.
Why they won't: Lack of Depth, lack of playoff experience. Too young

5) Utah Jazz:
If the Jazz had the two guard of ANY of the five teams above them I'd pick them for the title.
Why they win: A great point guard, inside-out offensive ability of their big men, and the best post offensive player in the game. Kyle Korver may open up the offense with his outside shooting.
Why they don't: Not enough offense from either the two or the three. Neither of their big men are good post defenders. Not enough depth in the backcourt.

6) Phoenix Suns:
Why they win: Potent offense with lots of weapons. The addition of Grant Hill should eliminate some of the playoff brain farts off the bench.
Why they lose: They have two of the worse individual defenders in the NBA (Steve Nash, Amare Stoudomeir) and no commitment to defense. They give up a lot of offensive rebounds which stalls their offense in the playoffs. No team has ever won a title on offense only, they came brain-farts away from getting to the finals last year and they would have beaten Cleveland easily. So maybe there's a first time for everything but they don't look as consistent this season.

PRETENDERS

7) Cavaliers: They did nothing to improve, and they still rely far to much on one man. I don't believe even Flip Saunders is stupid enough to let Lebron beat him again.

8) Lakers: If Bynam was healthy, they might have a shot. But the injuries will take there toll.

9) Magic: No point guard-no finals

10)Nuggets: Not enough balls for Anthony and Iverson, and way too many defensive issues

11) Wizards: They may take out a team above them. They play hard, and fairly smart, but Antonio Daniels at PG

12) Warriors: Lots of offense no D. Signing Weber only shows how desperate they are.

13) Rockets: What a mess, the third biggest waste of talent in the league. No PG or no dirty work big man. If you can't handle the ball, don't rebound, or play post defense you can't win the big games.

14) Trailblazers: Nate Macmillan is the coach of the year but they're to young. Watch out next year.

Are You Kidding?

Chicago Bulls: All of their playoff problems from last year have been magnified. Two undersized and overmatched (on defense) starting guards. An overpaid, past his prime center who is eating their cap space, and no post offense.

New York Knicks: So much talent, so little common sense.

Miami Heat: Has there ever been a less deserving NBA champion then the Heat of two years ago? If the officials would have been even marginal in that series, instead of worshiping at Wades feet, they would have been beaten by the choker Mavs! The biggest injustice in NBA history is Antoine Walker has a ring, the only thing that could be worse is if Stephan Marberry got one.

[Chris Fitzgerald]

Originally Posted by b'urk48237

Miami Heat: Has there ever been a less deserving NBA champion then the Heat of two years ago?

No. In fact, I can't think of a less deserving champion in any sport.

If the officials would have been even marginal in that series, instead of worshiping at Wades feet, they would have been beaten by the choker Mavs!

Agreed. * That was the worst officiating I've ever seen, and I considered not watching the NBA any more after that series. Wade spends more time on the floor than an area rug. A guy built like that who falls down that easily ought to get his balance checked instead of getting free unlimited passes to the free throw line. It was bad enough when it was Magic Johnson parading to the line, but at least he was Magic. I still hate Kobe's "fake your man into the air, then jump into him, yell, then throw the ball in the air and get up looking angry" move more than any in basketball, but at least it takes advantage of a COMPLETELY RETARDED loophole in the rules. In Wade's case, it looked like the cigarette smoking man simply told the refs to blow the whistle every time Wade fell down, and they did. Needless to say, I'm quite enjoying Miani's fall from grace this year.
















* See, Steve and I can *occasionally* agree on something!

[Eric Perry]

I have nothing to offer other than GO JAZZ!!!!!!!

[P. Aaron]

I've watched about 6 minutes of the NBA this year, then my wife came into the room and told me that Britney was going back to the hospital/court and I changed the channel.

[MakiSupaStar]

I agree with you about the Lakers. Injuries will be their downfall. However, I'm still watch their games.

[Atoz]

Originally Posted by Eric618

I have nothing to offer other than GO JAZZ!!!!!!!

+1... The Korver trade was really a good one for the Jazz, as it gave them some badly needed outside shooting. It's too bad he can't really play defense.

[BassManPatsFan]

Go Celts! I went to the game a few weeks back where they beat the Trailblazers 100-90 and Ray Allen scored 35 points. Excellent game, or at least second half.

[markjazzbassist]

i love how you hate on the Cavs just cause we beat you last year. you didn't think we could beat you last year and we did. we'll do it again this year too.

[MakiSupaStar]

Originally Posted by markjazzbassist

i love how you hate on the Cavs just cause we beat you last year. you didn't think we could beat you last year and we did. we'll do it again this year too.

You say "we". You're on the team now?

[markjazzbassist]

Originally Posted by MakiSupaStar

You say "we". You're on the team now?

you got me. at least Lebron's never lost to Kobe

[Fontaine]

Go Raptors

[burk48237]

Originally Posted by markjazzbassist

i love how you hate on the Cavs just cause we beat you last year. you didn't think we could beat you last year and we did. we'll do it again this year too.

Fair enough, But WHY is Cleveland better then last year? The Pistons starters are averaging about six minutes a game less then at this time last year. Because they are getting significant contributions off their bench. They should be fresher, and I believe because of this, and the fact that Chris Weber isn't playing (addition by subtraction) they are a better team then last year.

[MakiSupaStar]

Originally Posted by markjazzbassist

you got me. at least Lebron's never lost to Kobe

Touche.

[markjazzbassist]

Originally Posted by burk48237

Fair enough, But WHY is Cleveland better then last year?

You got me we aren't better, i was pretty pissed this offseason when the GM did nothing.

luckily Lebron is carrying the team and hopefully he'll stay when his contracts up.

[Jared Lash]

Not a bad analysis Burk. I agree with almost everything you said.

A couple quibbles though.

I would have both the Lakers and the Suns well above the Jazz and possibly the Warriors as well. The Jazz have had a nice spurt lately and the Lakers just came off their worst losing streak of the season, but Bynum will be back in plenty of time for the playoffs. Plus, Jerry Sloan (to his credit) always has his guys playing with high intensity. What that seems to translate to in the playoffs is a team that can't step it up as much as other teams do in the postseason.

Tyson Chandler is not a post presence. A long, active bodied rebounder and shotblocker, but not post presence.

The Rockets were my darkhorse candidate this season. I'm a big Rick Adelman guy, and I thought he'd jump them up to the next level. You can't really discount T-Mac's knee injury, but he seems to always be hurt. They can still make a push, but they'd need to get it together fast.

The Knicks definitely have very little sense, but I wouldn't say they have a lot of talent. I like some of their role players (Lee, Balkman) but they lack stars. Randolph is soft and overrated, Marbury (besides being incredibly selfish) is past his prime and Jamal Crawford should have had someone tell him long ago that he isn't good enough to shoot at the volume he does.

Finally, they have no legit shot this year, but I like a few things about the Magic. Howard is a beast and Turkoglu is playing at an all-star level. Lewis is vastly overpaid, but he's becoming a vital contributor too. A few moves this offseason and they could challenge next year.

I shudder to think how good the Blazers could be next year. Especially if Oden comes back healthy.

[burk48237]

Originally Posted by TheBigO

Not a bad analysis Burk. I agree with almost everything you said.

A couple quibbles though.

I would have both the Lakers and the Suns well above the Jazz and possibly the Warriors as well. The Jazz have had a nice spurt lately and the Lakers just came off their worst losing streak of the season, but Bynum will be back in plenty of time for the playoffs. Plus, Jerry Sloan (to his credit) always has his guys playing with high intensity. What that seems to translate to in the playoffs is a team that can't step it up as much as other teams do in the postseason.

Tyson Chandler is not a post presence. A long, active bodied rebounder and shotblocker, but not post presence.

The Rockets were my darkhorse candidate this season. I'm a big Rick Adelman guy, and I thought he'd jump them up to the next level. You can't really discount T-Mac's knee injury, but he seems to always be hurt. They can still make a push, but they'd need to get it together fast.

The Knicks definitely have very little sense, but I wouldn't say they have a lot of talent. I like some of their role players (Lee, Balkman) but they lack stars. Randolph is soft and overrated, Marbury (besides being incredibly selfish) is past his prime and Jamal Crawford should have had someone tell him long ago that he isn't good enough to shoot at the volume he does.

Finally, they have no legit shot this year, but I like a few things about the Magic. Howard is a beast and Turkoglu is playing at an all-star level. Lewis is vastly overpaid, but he's becoming a vital contributor too. A few moves this offseason and they could challenge next year.

I shudder to think how good the Blazers could be next year. Especially if Oden comes back healthy.

Good stuff, a few quick points:

New Orleans also has David west, inbetween the two they play pretty good down low.

Do you really rate the Lakers higher without Bynam? I think thats a huge loss, Azziz is hurt too.

The Suns biggest problem is they can't stop ANYONE, I can just see Boozers eyes lighting up every time he gets to work in the post against Stoudimier. And I think of all the point guards in the league, the two Nash has the most trouble with are the big physical ones, Williams and Billups. The hole at the two will be Utah's undoing, also Okur has some real problems playing post D.

The Rockets I just can't buy in too. They have two very uncomplimentary players centering the offense. A slasher and a post player. Scola brings very little to the table, and Rafer Alston is the point guard, Ugh! They would be wise to trade Mcgrady, IF they can get comparable value. I do think he's injured, but the problem is he's ALWAYS inured. In all sincerity I think they're overrated because they play team defense during the regular season, and Battiers hustle plays (everyone except Antoine Walker hustles the playoffs). If the Rockets make it, it's first round Bye, Bye.

The Knicks have Curry and Randolph both 20/10 guys who are young and admittedly a bit flawed. Put either one on a contender they become key cogs in a good run. Jamal Crawford could be a starting two on half of the top six teams. And Quentin Richardson use to shoot the lights out in Phoenix. There is no reason they shouldn't be a playoff team. But the pieces fit awful they are undisciplined and take terrible care of the ball. Their issue, Point guard leadership and Coaching.

[StanFan]

How about the All-Star rosters? Anybody you think is missing?
http://www.nba.com/allstar2008/reserves_080131.html

I would've liked to see Jose Calderon squeeze his way on to the team. He's performed very well in TJ Ford's absence, so well that Ford will have to work hard to win his starting spot back when he is healthy.

[Jared Lash]

Originally Posted by burk48237

Good stuff, a few quick points:

New Orleans also has David west, inbetween the two they play pretty good down low.

West can score in the paint, but usually only with a mismatch. He's not big enough to bang regularly, which is why most of his points come from facing the basket. West is a very good player for them (I believe he just made the all-star team) but he's not a huge threat down low. In fact, NOR drafted both Hilton Armstrong and Cedric Simmons hoping one of them could help their big man situation and neither did. Simmons was dealt to the Cavs for a way over the hill David Wesley. I like the Hornets a lot and being a Kings fan, it's nice to see Peja and especially Bobby Jackson on a successful team, but if there's anything they need, it's a low post scorer.

Originally Posted by burk48237

Do you really rate the Lakers higher without Bynam? I think thats a huge loss, Azziz is hurt too.

At the moment? No. But in the long run, yes. Bynum will be back by Mid March, plenty of time to work him back in before the playoffs. He's made huge strides in his game. Still, his injury wouldn't hurt nearly as much if Chris Mihm was healthy and could give them solid minutes. He should be back before the all-star break. Ariza is a nice roleplayer, but his injury doesn't really affect the team in any meaningful way. He's just the latest in a line (Devean George, Mo Evans etc) of athletic wings that the Lakers always seem to have on the bench.

Originally Posted by burk48237

The Suns biggest problem is they can't stop ANYONE, I can just see Boozers eyes lighting up every time he gets to work in the post against Stoudimier. And I think of all the point guards in the league, the two Nash has the most trouble with are the big physical ones, Williams and Billups. The hole at the two will be Utah's undoing, also Okur has some real problems playing post D.

As you know, the NBA is all about matchups. It all depends on who the Suns face in the playoffs. And their defense isn't that bad. Sure, they give up a lot of points, but I think opp FG% is a more telling stat and they are middle of the pack in that regard (Boston is 1st BTW). Like any high powered offensive team, I think they have a puncher's chance in any game and most playoff series. With them I'm always looking to see how Nash holds up, and very skeptical about their frontcourt depth.

Originally Posted by burk48237

The Rockets I just can't buy in too. They have two very uncomplimentary players centering the offense. A slasher and a post player. Scola brings very little to the table, and Rafer Alston is the point guard, Ugh! They would be wise to trade Mcgrady, IF they can get comparable value. I do think he's injured, but the problem is he's ALWAYS inured. In all sincerity I think they're overrated because they play team defense during the regular season, and Battiers hustle plays (everyone except Antoine Walker hustles the playoffs). If the Rockets make it, it's first round Bye, Bye.

TMac and Yao could be very good compliments (Kobe and Shaq did just fine when they could co-exist) but it seems no one in Houston is smart enough to surround them with shooters or realize that 6 mediocre PGs don't equal one good one. If they could actually surround them with the right role players and keep both stars healthy, I really think they could contend for a title. But those are two big ifs.

Originally Posted by burk48237

The Knicks have Curry and Randolph both 20/10 guys who are young and admittedly a bit flawed. Put either one on a contender they become key cogs in a good run. Jamal Crawford could be a starting two on half of the top six teams. And Quentin Richardson use to shoot the lights out in Phoenix. There is no reason they shouldn't be a playoff team. But the pieces fit awful they are undisciplined and take terrible care of the ball. Their issue, Point guard leadership and Coaching.

I hate, HATE Jamal Crawford's game. Right up there with Francis and Mobley in terms of terrible basketball IQ on the offensive end. Everyone shot the lights out in Phoenix. It's a great place to go to boost your stats and audition for a big contract. In truth, the best part of Q's game was always his ability to post up smaller guards. Injuries and misuse have made him an afterthought. I like Eddy Curry because he's a solid post scorer, but he's SOOO soft as a rebounder and is just too slow on defense, not blocking shots or even clogging the lane effectively. Randolph has become too much of a jump shooter and was a poor defender before the microfracture surgery. He's probably a better player than I give him credit for (at 17 & 10 a night) but it's hard for me to be objective because I think he's a scumbag.

[burk48237]

Originally Posted by StanFan

How about the All-Star rosters? Anybody you think is missing?
http://www.nba.com/allstar2008/reserves_080131.html

I would've liked to see Jose Calderon squeeze his way on to the team. He's performed very well in TJ Ford's absence, so well that Ford will have to work hard to win his starting spot back when he is healthy.

I really can't complain too much. I think Brandon Roy should have been on the team. Look at Portland's record and they don't have one all-star? I also think Jason Kidd has become the most overrated player in the league. Yes he plays defense, is and intelligent passer, and he rebounds, But would you really want his shooting ability on the floor at point guard for 40 minutes a game? I wouldn't unless I had a lot of scorers around him. I can think of at least 4 maybe 5 point guards I'd take over him. Too me the top points in the the league are Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Chauncy Billups, Baron Davis, Steve Nash, and then Kidd. Kidd is starting, Davis didn't even make the team.

[Jared Lash]

Brandon Roy is on the team, as well he should be.

I think if Kevin Martin hadn't been injured and kept up his early pace that he should have gotten some serious consideration.

I'd take Jason Kidd over Chauncey Billups, who isn't nearly as complete a PG or a real distributor as the others, but I agree with the rest of your PGs. Then again, Jason Kidd is 34 or so and has been a top two PG for most of those years. And other than Billups, the rest of the PGs you mentioned are all in the West, which is why Kidd made the team. If Baron Davis were in the East, he'd likely have made the squad.