A Discussion on the Evolution of Technology and Human Socialization

FreaqyFrequency · #1 02-14-2009, 04:13 PM

Take a look at this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UHDTV

They expect this format to be released in less than 9 years after the revolutionary Blu-Ray disc and player was released.

Now I don't necessarily mean to come across as Ray Kurzweil, but this, along with other phenomena that has occurred in the past 10 years, brings home to me the fact that technology is moving forward so quickly, that we can't really imagine what the world will be like in 5 years. 5 years ago, if someone had brought up the words YouTube or Facebook, you'd be wondering what they were smoking. And MySpace was just barely known in 2004.

All of this just fascinates me, especially considering that I'm so young and have so much life ahead of me to see this all happen.

Discuss!

iamlowsound · #2 02-14-2009, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreaqyFrequency

Take a look at this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UHDTV

They expect this format to be released in less than 9 years after the revolutionary Blu-Ray disc and player was released.

Now I don't necessarily mean to come across as Ray Kurzweil, but this, along with other phenomena that has occurred in the past 10 years, brings home to me the fact that technology is moving forward so quickly, that we can't really imagine what the world will be like in 5 years. 5 years ago, if someone had brought up the words YouTube or Facebook, you'd be wondering what they were smoking. And MySpace was just barely known in 2004.

All of this just fascinates me, especially considering that I'm so young and have so much life ahead of me to see this all happen.

Discuss!

That is nuts. Think about it this way, my grandparents went from driving horse and buggies when they were born to having facebook, youtube and digital cameras. What is it going to be like for us?

lowsound

IconBasser · #3 02-14-2009, 04:48 PM

I just find it pretty incredible what the 20th century has brought us.

At the turn of the century, people were riding horses. 40 years later, we had nuclear power, Holy Crap!

Technology is progressing at such an extreme rate, that I fear humans can't keep up. We are surrounded by insanely complicated gadgets and gizmoids, yet if you asked any schmuck on the street how to build one, 99.9% of the time, you'd get an answer of "uhhh.. I dunno"

I think that eventually (I dunno when), we'll see a fundamental transformation in humankind: humans will begin to use computers to enhance their own brains. Think about it, we already have portable computers to look stuff up and calculate things, I think it's only a matter of time before we take the next step forward and become part machine.

your thoughts?

funkometer · #4 02-14-2009, 04:54 PM

Im sure our gov prob already has this technology, and is waiting for the right time to $$$$$$

FreaqyFrequency · #5 02-14-2009, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IconBasser

I think that eventually (I dunno when), we'll see a fundamental transformation in humankind: humans will begin to use computers to enhance their own brains. Think about it, we already have portable computers to look stuff up and calculate things, I think it's only a matter of time before we take the next step forward and become part machine.

your thoughts?

I think Mr. Kurzweil would agree.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_Kurzweil

hbarcat · #6 02-14-2009, 05:04 PM

My daughter rolls her eyes whenever I show her a new vinyl record album that I bought. She thinks CD's are old fashioned. I tell her about how there were no home computers when I was her age and she stares at me like I just sprouted an extra nose.

scorpionldr · #7 02-14-2009, 05:21 PM

I can see the flying cars thing happening.

hbarcat · #8 02-14-2009, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FreaqyFrequency

Now I don't necessarily mean to come across as Ray Kurzweil, but this, along with other phenomena that has occurred in the past 10 years, brings home to me the fact that technology is moving forward so quickly, that we can't really imagine what the world will be like in 5 years.

It's interesting that you brought up Kurzweil - he is a strong advocate for the Law of Accelerating Returns and he expects that technology will continue to increase exponentially. This is a risky thing in which to put your faith. History shows us that when we see something growing exponentially, it is only temporary and will usually level out and take on what is called a "sigmoidal" curve.

As this applies to your example of video resolution increasing exponentially, consider that the same thing happened with audio resolution. Audio technology also progressed exponentially until it reached a point that the consumer no longer cared and they stopped buying products that sounded better even though they were available at nearly the same price. Consumers, instead, choose to buy products that are more convenient and have more bells and whistles rather than provide higher music fidelity. There will soon come a time when consumers will be satisfied with the available video resolution and will instead choose to buy products that are more portable or compact or more convenient or have other capabilities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_...rating_Returns

**bassybill** · #9 02-14-2009, 05:30 PM

It's interesting to contemplate the ultimate capacities of digital technology. When we approach the "one electron in the right place = one bit" limit, then Terabyte storage capacities will be microscopic.

William Gibson ftw. In the short term, anyway.

iamlowsound · #10 02-14-2009, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbarcat

My daughter rolls her eyes whenever I show her a new vinyl record album that I bought. She thinks CD's are old fashioned. I tell her about how there were no home computers when I was her age and she stares at me like I just sprouted an extra nose.

She probably listens to mp3s at 128kb/s and wouldn't know good sound quality if it punched her in the face. Vinyl is still the best medium ever invented for the transferring of sound in a high quality. I can have a FLAC file and the same song on vinyl played through the same system and the vinyl will sound better every time.

lowsound

Jim Nazium · #11 02-14-2009, 05:42 PM

I agree with hbarcat. There's only so much video resolution you can see anyway. And I'm skeptical of Kurzweil's claims. I agree that technology has made incredible advances recently, and likely will continue to do so. But Kurzweil claims that within 20 years computers will have surpassed human intelligence, and I just don't think so. The processing power to compete with a human brain may exist by then, but we don't even have an outline of a theory of how to program general intelligence.

iamlowsound · #12 02-14-2009, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hbarcat

It's interesting that you brought up Kurzweil - he is a strong advocate for the Law of Accelerating Returns and he expects that technology will continue to increase exponentially. This is a risky thing in which to put your faith. History shows us that when we see something growing exponentially, it is only temporary and will usually level out and take on what is called a "sigmoidal" curve.

As this applies to your example of video resolution increasing exponentially, consider that the same thing happened with audio resolution. Audio technology also progressed exponentially until it reached a point that the consumer no longer cared and they stopped buying products that sounded better even though they were available at nearly the same price. Consumers, instead, choose to buy products that are more convenient and have more bells and whistles rather than provide higher music fidelity. There will soon come a time when consumers will be satisfied with the available video resolution and will instead choose to buy products that are more portable or compact or more convenient or have other capabilities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_...rating_Returns

Your statement puts everything on the consumer. Yes, audio technology reached a pinnacle then dropped off because of the consumer, on a sound medium level. It could -- and still could -- have gone further. Just because it didn't, doesn't mean that it couldn't. The same with tvs, they will reach a point where the viewer wont really care about having it look better, but the technology will still be able to advance further.

lowsound

**bassybill** · #13 02-14-2009, 05:44 PM

There's a thread in Miscellaneous about vinyl vs. CD vs. mp3 or whatever. I can hear some differences between media but such differences are pretty minor, to my ears.

iamlowsound · #14 02-14-2009, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jim Nazium

I agree with hbarcat. There's only so much video resolution you can see anyway. And I'm skeptical of Kurzweil's claims. I agree that technology has made incredible advances recently, and likely will continue to do so. But Kurzweil claims that within 20 years computers will have surpassed human intelligence, and I just don't think so. The processing power to compete with a human brain may exist by then, but we don't even have an outline of a theory of how to program general intelligence.

I am firmly in the dualist camp on this one. I don't believe that AI will ever be achieved, because I believe that there is part of intelligence that is not physical. The whole AI argument breaks down as soon as there is any type of intelligence that is not purely physical, no matter how small.

lowsound

hbarcat · #15 02-14-2009, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamlowsound

That is nuts. Think about it this way, my grandparents went from driving horse and buggies when they were born to having facebook, youtube and digital cameras. What is it going to be like for us?

lowsound

My grandmother is 87 and I have to go over to her house to help her with her TV/DVD/VHS setup. She is very intelligent and has a fantastic memory and has always been an independent and capable person but she just can't understand the concept of navigating a menu on a TV screen with a remote control.

I know I'm going to be like that if I manage to live that long. My grandkids will come over to my house to try yet again to show me how to use the awesome birthday present they gave me (some device that everyone has to have that they decided I can't live without) and even if I eventually understand what it does, I will be forever incapable of understanding how to operate it.

IconBasser · #16 02-14-2009, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iamlowsound

I am firmly in the dualist camp on this one. I don't believe that AI will ever be achieved, because I believe that there is part of intelligence that is not physical. The whole AI argument breaks down as soon as there is any type of intelligence that is not purely physical, no matter how small.

lowsound

I disagree. I think AI is probably only a decade or two away.

(this isn't based on any fact or statistic, just my gut reaction)

mothmonsterman · #17 02-15-2009, 04:30 AM

There's a huge problem with the rate of technology growth and the rate of the education of the users of that technology.
Though we can't imagine what it will be like, we can't imagine the lack of people that will be able to make use of it.

armywalaby · #18 02-15-2009, 05:57 AM

I just farted.

FreaqyFrequency · #19 02-15-2009, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mothmonsterman

There's a huge problem with the rate of technology growth and the rate of the education of the users of that technology.
Though we can't imagine what it will be like, we can't imagine the lack of people that will be able to make use of it.

To a certain extent, I agree, but there will always be consumers who go out and will sell their souls in order to get and understand how the latest and greatest works. There is never a lack of people who pride themselves on having the latest technology and knowing how to use it.