How low will the DOW go?

The Crusader · #1 11-20-2008, 07:56 AM

In your opinion, how low will the Dow Jones Industrial Average go before it has bottomed out?

Georynn · #2 11-20-2008, 08:08 AM

You should place a constraint on the time frame...

This way when people pick a number, they can be wrong,
otherwise, I'm sure any number can be achieved no matter how high or low, given enough time.

I say it will end this week down from where it started the week, by 550 points.
It'll be down today but up tomorrow...

In the coming weeks, could go lower than 7000....

Relic · #3 11-20-2008, 08:09 AM

it really all depends on what's ahead in the next few weeks and months. Bail-outs may help superficially but will only prolong the inevitable.
Personally I think it's going to go disturbingly low before it bottoms out and stats coming back up.

The Crusader · #4 11-20-2008, 08:12 AM

nah, no time constraint. my question is how low do you think before it starts to rebound and not return to that low (I don't want to say ever again, but......)

Rich L · #5 11-20-2008, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NS2A

By the way, a house isn't an investment. Something you pay into for 30 years then never realize the gains isn't an investment - it's a liability. Once people get that thru their thick skulls, we'd be better off financially - at least on that front.

+1!

buzzbass · #6 11-20-2008, 09:20 AM

don't care, I don't have any money there. or anyplace else, for that matter. it's fun to watch though.

**Ívar Þórólfsson** · #7 11-20-2008, 09:41 AM

Leave politics out of this discussion!

I have already deleted several posts here!

Scarlet Fire · #8 11-20-2008, 11:10 AM

Why stop at 6000? I say go big or go home. Let's get it down to 4000.

Rich L · #9 11-20-2008, 11:22 AM

Unfortunately, 4000 is not out of the question...wouldn't be surprised to see it that low over the next year or so.

Received my first ever warning for an earlier post on this topic, so I will leave it at that.

NS2A · #10 11-20-2008, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ívar Þórólfsson

Leave politics out of this discussion!

I have already deleted several posts here!

Well, I need to restate without quoting Rich then...

One of the big reasons we're in this mess is greed! Like the old saying, "Pigs get salughtered" everyone contributed to this. I've worked in the brokerage business since college and I've had clients tell me (during the dot com bubble) they're firing thier financial advisors because their advisor only made them 40% over the year! I've seen advisors take crazy risks with their clients money so they can squeeze an extra % out of the portfolios because then they make a few extra thousand. Like the 300k they make a year doesn't do it?

Christopher · #11 11-20-2008, 12:12 PM

I think it's at or below "bottom" now. Twenty years ago the Dow was around 2500. I have a hard time believing that productivity in the U.S. hasn't at least tripled during those two decades.

NS2A · #12 11-20-2008, 12:19 PM

My prediciton is 6800 by year end. There's nothing good on the horizion. Nothing. When the DOW was at 12k a little over a year ago, I took 80% of my money and put it into cash because then I saw no good numbers on the horizion.

Then it went to 14k

and my buddies at work started ribbing me about it. I was confident there was no good numbers coming out, so I did get out of the 20% slowly and felt just fine about it. Not bragging, just sayin' I see nothing good for awhile. It's hard to time a bottom and the top. If you think it's going to go lower, it's best to get out now and when it starts to bump back (not just a day or two mind you), get back in.

See, Financial people won't tell you that as it doesn't make them money on commissions.

Philbiker · #13 11-20-2008, 01:35 PM

3000 - not on your list. It will take 4-5 years (hopefully).

JimB52 · #14 11-20-2008, 06:39 PM

When it gets to zero, BUY!

Spector_Ray · #15 11-20-2008, 08:12 PM

It'll go down just enough to wipe out my retirement, then it'll rebound quite nicely.

Geddyfleaharris · #16 11-21-2008, 06:34 AM

I really hope it doesn't go to the low 6000s as most people in the poll are voting for because that will drag our Canadian Stock Market with it. I have retirement funds in both markets so basically a double whammy.

While the world economy is in the toilet right now, the market is being driven down by fear. IMO this is almost as bad as when oil was being driven up by speculators. Yes there are certain areas of the economy that are obviously in dire straights but it is not like the economy will grind to a complete hault. There is an intrinsic, base value to companies that are part of the stock market that I have heard is represented by a Dow in the neighborhood of 7500 to 8000, give or take. If that number is correct, if the Dow is below those numbers, then the traders are ignoring the basic value of companies. Even the Big 3 automakers, in as bad of shape as they are in, are still worth something just because of the property, plants and intellectual property that they own.

Philbiker · #17 11-21-2008, 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geddyfleaharris

I really hope it doesn't go to the low 6000s as most people in the poll are voting for because that will drag our Canadian Stock Market with it. I have retirement funds in both markets so basically a double whammy.

While the world economy is in the toilet right now, the market is being driven down by fear. IMO this is almost as bad as when oil was being driven up by speculators. Yes there are certain areas of the economy that are obviously in dire straights but it is not like the economy will grind to a complete hault. There is an intrinsic, base value to companies that are part of the stock market that I have heard is represented by a Dow in the neighborhood of 7500 to 8000, give or take. If that number is correct, if the Dow is below those numbers, then the traders are ignoring the basic value of companies. Even the Big 3 automakers, in as bad of shape as they are in, are still worth something just because of the property, plants and intellectual property that they own.

We have a winner!!

IMO, the fact that stock prices are so far removed from the actual value of companies is an important indication of just how completely screwed up the whole system is. Similar disconnects existed in the 20s and 30s.

IMO this is a lot worse than most people think and will require much more intervention than is currently happening.

guy n. cognito · #18 11-21-2008, 07:12 AM

Expecting lackluster 4th quarter number for almost all retailers (except WalMart), which should have an impact on production in 2009, I'm expecting the bottom somewhere south of 7000 late in the 1st quarter next year.

Of course, that's a total guess......

GregC · #19 11-21-2008, 08:00 AM

I have pretty much no doubt the Dow will go below 7000. That's only a 10% drop from where it is right this minute, and the markets have been incredibly volatile and investor sentiment is so negative--it could easily drop to that level in one or two days.

Now where it goes from there, I don't know. My job is such that I hear from a lot of really smart investors and frankly, their messages are mixed. Some believe banks in general are teetering on the edge (not just Citi), that we're in need of massive stimulus--yes, far more massive than TARP--and that we'll need to print money like crazy because of the utter lack oif liquidity. Others are much more optimistic and believe the selling is almost completely panic-driven, and that we're near a bottom. We shall see.

It would be nice to believe one could get out of the market now and time the recovery almost perfectly, but I think only a very lucky few will end up doing that. Not a good strategy, IMO.

Unrepresented · #20 11-21-2008, 10:26 AM

There is no choice in the polls for "We will all be subject to the will of Master Blaster in the Thunderdome."