Are jobs becoming obsolete?

[metron]

I saw an interesting article on CNN about how jobs may become obsolete or that it may be happening already. It was an interesting idea that I hadn't thought of previously.

The gist is that jobs are a relatively new concept. Way back when people basically worked for themselves up until the Renaissance through the Industrial Revolution to today where corporations and jobs were created. It was easy to keep everyone working 50 years ago when our economy was production based and people made lots of "stuff". Now technology and outsourcing renders a lot of the production side unnecessary. The workforce is much more skilled than ever before yet less workers are needed with technological advancements.

With not enough jobs to go around and millions of Americans out of work, what happens next? I think we may be in for a sort of economic paradigm shift but I don't know what it's going to look like. IMO it's most likely to be a digression. I think people are going to have to learn to be more thrifty, consume less, and how to produce for themselves. But it could be much bigger than that.

So do you think the concept of working at a job for a living is slowly becoming obsolete? If so what does your idea of the future look like?

[sloasdaylight]

Originally Posted by metron

I saw an interesting article on CNN about how jobs may become obsolete or that it may be happening already. It was an interesting idea that I hadn't thought of previously.

The gist is that jobs are a relatively new concept. Way back when people basically worked for themselves up until the Renaissance through the Industrial Revolution to today where corporations and jobs were created. It was easy to keep everyone working 50 years ago when our economy was production based and people made lots of "stuff". Now technology and outsourcing renders a lot of the production side unnecessary. The workforce is much more skilled than ever before yet less workers are needed with technological advancements.

With not enough jobs to go around and millions of Americans out of work, what happens next? I think we may be in for a sort of economic paradigm shift but I don't know what it's going to look like. IMO it's most likely to be a digression. I think people are going to have to learn to be more thrifty, consume less, and how to produce for themselves. But it could be much bigger than that.

So do you think the concept of working at a job for a living is slowly becoming obsolete? If so what does your idea of the future look like?

Maybe if we completely revert to the way things were in the dark ages. Otherwise, no.

[maxgrant]

Originally Posted by metron

I saw an interesting article on CNN about how jobs may become obsolete or that it may be happening already. It was an interesting idea that I hadn't thought of previously.

The gist is that jobs are a relatively new concept. Way back when people basically worked for themselves up until the Renaissance through the Industrial Revolution to today where corporations and jobs were created. It was easy to keep everyone working 50 years ago when our economy was production based and people made lots of "stuff". Now technology and outsourcing renders a lot of the production side unnecessary. The workforce is much more skilled than ever before yet less workers are needed with technological advancements.

With not enough jobs to go around and millions of Americans out of work, what happens next? I think we may be in for a sort of economic paradigm shift but I don't know what it's going to look like. IMO it's most likely to be a digression. I think people are going to have to learn to be more thrifty, consume less, and how to produce for themselves. But it could be much bigger than that.

So do you think the concept of working at a job for a living is slowly becoming obsolete? If so what does your idea of the future look like?

No the problem is not that jobs are becoming obsolete. It's that supply-side economics has reached its maximum irrelevance and has failed just about completely. It turns out that huge tax breaks and giveaways to big business encourages them to -- hoard that money. We are in need of a demand-side stimulus to our economy and nobody is willing to admit this fundamental fact -- nobody will hire more workers unless their products are in more demand.

Someday, maybe, in another generation or so the ability to put solar on your own roof, download designs for products from the internet and print them on a 3-d "fabber" may start to render the kind of economy you are imagining, but whoever on CNN is blathering about jobs being obsolete is probably about as knowledgable about jobs and economics as they are about sports and celebrity gossip -- which is to say not at all.

[sloasdaylight]

Originally Posted by maxgrant

No the problem is not that jobs are becoming obsolete. It's that supply-side economics has reached its maximum irrelevance and has failed just about completely. It turns out that huge tax breaks and giveaways to big business encourages them to -- hoard that money. We are in need of a demand-side stimulus to our economy and nobody is willing to admit this fundamental fact -- nobody will hire more workers unless their products are in more demand.

Someday, maybe, in another generation or so the ability to put solar on your own roof, download designs for products from the internet and print them on a 3-d "fabber" may start to render the kind of economy you are imagining, but whoever on CNN is blathering about jobs being obsolete is probably about as knowledgable about jobs and economics as they are about sports and celebrity gossip -- which is to say not at all.

Yea, cause Keynesian economics has such a great track record...

[hbarcat]

That article was written by someone who is trying to prove they are the smartest person in the room. I would argue that they don't understand even the most basic of economic concepts.

One of these concepts is that you can't borrow money from your own future for extended periods of time without having a real plan to pay it back. This is true for individuals, businesses and governments. Yet nearly every western country (Europe and North America) has been spending money this way for decades and now is experiencing a debt crisis. Of course, this means that every economy will take a hit in productivity and that means jobs go away. It really is no more complicated than that and it isn't necessary to invent some kind of "pardigm shift" to explain this simple economic cause and effect.

Every country that has too much accumulated debt needs to take steps to eventually get their debt under control. Achieve this and jobs will come back.

[metron]

Honestly i didnt even link the article because a lot of it is blather but i was at least intrigued by the idea. Not literally that jobs are becoming obsolete but our current way of making a living may be.

[hbarcat]

Originally Posted by metron

Honestly i didnt even link the article because a lot of it is blather but i was at least intrigued by the idea. Not literally that jobs are becoming obsolete but our current way of making a living may be.

Our current way of making a living (specilization of jobs) is the way it is because of our level of technology. For that to become obsolete would mean our level of technology would be fundamentally changed. Perhaps there will be some new leap forward that no one can predict. But that isn't here at this time so it can't be affecting jobs now.

The only other alternative is for our technology to go away and for us to return to pre industrial times. That's certainly possible, but I don't think too many people would want to live that way. Also, considering that the Earth can only support a little less than 1 billion people in the absense of our current hi-tech food production, it would mean at least 80% of the Earth's current human inhabitants would have to starve to death.

[Jim Nazium]

I didn't agree with all of the points in the article, but I think he may be on to something. Early in the 20th century, some people beleived that technology and automation would increase productivity so much that people could work a lot less. By 2000 we were all laughing at that prediction, since we were working harder than ever. Now, it seems that there is indeed less work being done, but the problem is that some of us are working out butts off and some people are unemployed. My question is, could more people be happier if there was more part-time work? Like, instead of having 4 people work 5 days a week, have 5 people work 4 days a week. So, we can have the same standard of living we have now, but incomes would be more evenly distributed. I'd be happier with more free time, and the newly employed person would be happier to have a job. I like that solution better than the encouragement to "buy more stuff" because it "stimulates demand". We have enough stuff already.

[metron]

Originally Posted by hbarcat

That article was written by someone who is trying to prove they are the smartest person in the room. I would argue that they don't understand even the most basic of economic concepts.

One of these concepts is that you can't borrow money from your own future for extended periods of time without having a real plan to pay it back. This is true for individuals, businesses and governments. Yet nearly every western country (Europe and North America) has been spending money this way for decades and now is experiencing a debt crisis. Of course, this means that every economy will take a hit in productivity and that means jobs go away. It really is no more complicated than that and it isn't necessary to invent some kind of "pardigm shift" to explain this simple economic cause and effect.

Every country that has too much accumulated debt needs to take steps to eventually get their debt under control. Achieve this and jobs will come back.

I think there is a near zero chance that will be achieved so I think the current economic downtrend will continue until catastrophic things happen and changes on everyone become forced. Hence a paradigm shift. Not something invented but happening beyond our control.

Im not trying to be doom and gloom or anything. Im just interested in considering the concept that major unexpected things will happen, as opposed to us collectively finding a way to fix our economic problems and move forward as we were.

[MakiSupaStar]

I think that were going to see less dependence on jobs for certain things. For instance, I think we're already seeing the trend where people are starting to grow portions of their own food, are starting to process alternative fuels for their vehicles (converting regular diesels to bio-diesel for example), and are using alternative forms of transportation (bicycles, rapid transit, golf carts, skateboard, etc) to create a more centralized existence. People are looking for ways in which they are dependent upon their job for less. So for instance, a person might require a 16 dollar an hour job to pay rent, buy groceries, bills, gasoline, etc, they now only need a job that pays 8-10 dollars an hour because of adjustments they're making. Just a thought. I have no basis for this other than things that I'm suddenly taking notice of around me, as well as things that I'm personally looking into.

[onosson]

I have only a few times in my life held what might be called a "real job", and only once, for a period of a year, was that my ONLY job. Over the past 20+ years I have earned most of my income playing gigs, supplemented by working part-time in painting and construction, and hope to be starting a university sessional position in 2012. All of those are contract or piece-work. I don't really envision a time in my life when that won't be the case, it's what I'm used to. I should add that I have bought and paid for a house in that time, have always paid cash for vehicles, and have a family with two young children. I don't make much, but I spend it wisely. The notion of a "regular job" with benefits etc. is pretty foreign to me. (For the record, I am Canadian, so I don't have the kind of worries over healthcare that someone in the US might)

[charlie monroe]

Originally Posted by metron

Now technology and outsourcing renders a lot of the production side unnecessary.

This is it in a nutshell. Jobs aren't becoming obsolete, however, American production jobs have become too expensive for the global economy. Mexico and the Far East have usurped our position of manufacturer to the world.

The US economy has become one of consumerism and our largest product is service, as opposed to durable goods as in the past.

There will always be positions that can only be filled by humans, but the level of remuneration for those in the blue collar class is in a downward spiral.

This is a very difficult subject to discuss while keeping political views suppressed

[onosson]

I'll follow that up after reading Maki's mention of growing food. We have had a small vegetable garden in our backyard for several years now. We have a short growing season up here (there could likely be snow before Halloween) so we don't get a ton of stuff out of it. But this year we found out about a great little farmshare run by a producer outside our city. For about $10 a week we have been getting more than enough vegetables to feed our family all summer, locally and organically produced, and at a pickup location 5-10 minutes away. We have also bought cuts of meat direct from local farmers in the past. I'm sure that this kind of food-sourcing will definitely continue for us in the future.

[MakiSupaStar]

Originally Posted by charlie monroe

This is it in a nutshell. Jobs aren't becoming obsolete, however, American production jobs have become too expensive for the global economy. Mexico and the Far East have usurped our position of manufacturer to the world.

The US economy has become one of consumerism and our largest product is service, as opposed to durable goods as in the past.

There will always be positions that can only be filled by humans, but the level of remuneration for those in the blue collar class is in a downward spiral.

This is a very difficult subject to discuss while keeping political views suppressed

I agree. Part of the problem is our tariffs for imports are ridiculously low. I read that they're somewhere around 2%. So it's cheaper for companies based here in this market to manufacture/process something overseas and ship it back into the market than to keep it local and distribute it locally. Yet we don't hear to much about that tariff because many large corporations and other countries have lobbied to keep it at that level.

[iamdenialNJ]

Minimum wage jobs? NO!

Jobs that pay enough to support yourself independently (let alone a family)? YES!

[Popbumper]

Originally Posted by sloasdaylight

Yea, cause Keynesian economics has such a great track record...

+1

Chris

[Jazz Ad]

Let's try another jump in the past.
For all human history but the last 400 years, Asian nations have dominated the Earth.
The development of Western countries really is news even in historic times. I don't see this domination lasting very long.

Industry and companies are much older than OP's description. There already were established companies and factories 2000 years ago in Japan, India and the Roman World.

[rockstarbassist]

As long as I get a lump sum payment of 1.234 metric tons of gold that I can use to buy whatever currency I want, then sure, you can have my job.

But no. That's just silly to think. Everyone working for the "greater good" akin to Star Trek is just that- fiction. No one's going to give you anything for free, which means you're not going to receive anything for free.

[Jazz Ad]

Indeed. Greed is what keeps the world together.

[metron]

Originally Posted by MakiSupaStar

I think that were going to see less dependence on jobs for certain things. For instance, I think we're already seeing the trend where people are starting to grow portions of their own food, are starting to process alternative fuels for their vehicles (converting regular diesels to bio-diesel for example), and are using alternative forms of transportation (bicycles, rapid transit, golf carts, skateboard, etc) to create a more centralized existence. People are looking for ways in which they are dependent upon their job for less. So for instance, a person might require a 16 dollar an hour job to pay rent, buy groceries, bills, gasoline, etc, they now only need a job that pays 8-10 dollars an hour because of adjustments they're making. Just a thought. I have no basis for this other than things that I'm suddenly taking notice of around me, as well as things that I'm personally looking into.

I believe that a sizeable movement toward a more "centralized existence" is almost inevitable. The daily commute uses a lot of fuel. Shipping/moving food does as well.

Originally Posted by Jazz Ad

Let's try another jump in the past.
For all human history but the last 400 years, Asian nations have dominated the Earth.
The development of Western countries really is news even in historic times. I don't see this domination lasting very long.

Industry and companies are much older than OP's description. There already were established companies and factories 2000 years ago in Japan, India and the Roman World.

True but werent they more like enslavement situations as opposed to the modern "at will" model of corporations?