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View Poll Results: Do you change your original choice? | |
No, it doesn't change my odds
|    | 20 | 50.00% | |
Yes, it makes my odds better
|    | 20 | 50.00% |
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04-11-2008, 04:22 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Seattle, WA | | | "Let's Make a Deal" brain teaser
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Remember "Let's Make a Deal" with Monty Hall? Well here's a brain teaser based on the show...
Behind 3 doors are 2 goats and a brand new car. You have to try and pick the door with the car behind it.
You pick a door.
Monty then opens one of the doors that you did NOT pick and shows you a goat. He then offers you the opportunity to change your choice between the two remaining doors (of which you've picked one).
Do you change your choice or not? |
04-11-2008, 04:24 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: May 2007 Location: Clarkston, MI | | | no
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Originally Posted by santucci218  Go ahead, ill sleep with men and drink and have fun. | Mark Wilson Is The Greatest!
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04-11-2008, 04:30 PM
| | | | Yes.
The opening of the unchosen door has changed something. Something which I won't explain, but the guy in that 21 movie will. |
04-11-2008, 04:36 PM
| | | | Unless you REALLY like goats... |
04-11-2008, 04:54 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Modesto, CA | | | Nope, car or goat, it's a win-win.
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04-11-2008, 05:13 PM
| | Thor's Hammer 2.1.3beta | | Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: South Houston, TX | | | Meh.
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Originally Posted by spade2you ...Too many anti-gun people messin' with Texans. I hear they get guns in their Happy Meals down there. :p | Lefty Union Member #110 Carvin Club Member #14
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04-11-2008, 05:29 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Dartmouth, Canada | | | Yes. If you analyse the situation the odds are better if you change. This is because the door opened to reveal a goat wasn't a random choice. Switching increases your probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. |
04-11-2008, 05:32 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Seattle, WA | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Geoff St. Germaine Switching increases your probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. | it's actually 1/3 to 1/2. |
04-11-2008, 05:49 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Metro Detroit, Michigan | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jady Nope, car or goat, it's a win-win. | Agreed.
Would the show actually let you keep the goat? |
04-11-2008, 06:27 PM
|  | Registered User
Endorsing artist: Brubaker Guitars | | Join Date: Mar 2000 Location: Gaithersburg, Md | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Geoff St. Germaine Yes. If you analyse the situation the odds are better if you change. This is because the door opened to reveal a goat wasn't a random choice. Switching increases your probability of winning from 1/3 to 2/3. | Not following the logic there. |
04-11-2008, 06:30 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: New City, NY | | | Picking a different door changes nothing. When one door is opened, and a goat is revealed, it is removed from the equation. So whether you stick with the door you picked first, or you choose the other door, your odds are the same, 1/2.
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Originally Posted by fdeck Of course I plug my little amp into a power system known in the industry as THAT OUTLET OVER THERE. :D | |
04-11-2008, 06:35 PM
|  | You don't want to do that. Trust me. Forum Administrator | | Join Date: Mar 2000 Location: atlanta ga | |
__________________ Talkbass Forum Administrator Ask me, I'm here to help. Lord Only on Myspace - 4 New Lord Only Tracks from our 2nd CD Lord Only - yes. we're back. sorta versatile residue -12 minute instrumental I find it elevating and exhilarating to discover that we live in a universe which permits the evolution of molecular machines as intricate and subtle as we. - Carl Sagan Rock 'n' Roll... It's got nothing to do with journalists, and it hasn't really even got anything to do with musicians, either. - Pete Townsend |
04-11-2008, 06:36 PM
| | You don't want to do that. Trust me. Forum Administrator | | Join Date: Mar 2000 Location: atlanta ga | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Johnson Not following the logic there. | explained in wiki link above  .
__________________ Talkbass Forum Administrator Ask me, I'm here to help. Lord Only on Myspace - 4 New Lord Only Tracks from our 2nd CD Lord Only - yes. we're back. sorta versatile residue -12 minute instrumental I find it elevating and exhilarating to discover that we live in a universe which permits the evolution of molecular machines as intricate and subtle as we. - Carl Sagan Rock 'n' Roll... It's got nothing to do with journalists, and it hasn't really even got anything to do with musicians, either. - Pete Townsend |
04-11-2008, 07:34 PM
| | | | I really enjoyed that! Thanks. |
04-11-2008, 07:37 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: New City, NY | | | Ok, when you factor in the specific choice that the host makes when choosing which door to reveal, the odds do change. That wasn't completely clear in the OP.
__________________ Quote:
Originally Posted by fdeck Of course I plug my little amp into a power system known in the industry as THAT OUTLET OVER THERE. :D | |
04-11-2008, 07:43 PM
| | | | I always wondered if the host was hinting when he would says that. A wink wink thing. You still have to wonder if that too was a factor. |
04-11-2008, 08:39 PM
|  | is, against all odds, still a scuba viking. | | Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Alta Loma, California | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Lalabadie Yes.
The opening of the unchosen door has changed something. Something which I won't explain, but the guy in that 21 movie will. |
HA!! that's exactly what popped into my head as soon as I read the question.
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Originally Posted by Dr. Cheese It is never the duty of the oppressed to make a bigot feel comfortable. | |
04-11-2008, 08:44 PM
|  | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Rochelle, Illinois | | | Isn't some mysterious guy supposed to phone Monty and tell him to offer me some cash in exchange for walking away from the car and the goats?
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04-11-2008, 09:07 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Dartmouth, Canada | | Quote:
Originally Posted by seventhson it's actually 1/3 to 1/2. | No, it's 2/3. It would be 1/2 if the host randomly opened one of the doors. |
04-11-2008, 09:08 PM
| | Registered User | | Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Dartmouth, Canada | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad Johnson Not following the logic there. | It's handled in the link. We had this problem in a probs and stats class in university. | | Thread Tools | Search this Thread | | | | 
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