NCAA Football 2012 - Week 13

[Eublet]

New thread!

It's Iron Bowl Week. The opening line was Bama by 34 pts. Just hard to believe that. Sadly, I'm more looking forward to other games this week.

FSU-Florida - it's tough picturing a Florida win this week with the QB out, but I hope they can pull it off.

Also looking forward to USC-Notre Dame. I'm pulling for the Irish at this point so we can hopefully face them in the NC game. Danny Sheridan said last night that every SEC team in the top 10 would be a 10 point favorite over ND if they were playing this weekend.

Oregon St - Oregon. Go Ducks. I don't want your season to be totally ruined but I'm thankful for the second chance.

I hope Spurrier can knock off Clemson.

I love rivalry weekend!

[Lonesomedave]

got my popcorn....

[plankspanker13]

It's Hate Week.

GO BLUE!!!!

[Tractorr]

Originally Posted by Eublet

FSU-Florida - it's tough picturing a Florida win this week with the QB out, but I hope they can pull it off.

This is such a tough one. I think this is going to be a very close game. While Florida's offense has not looked very good before Driskel went down, they still are far more battle tested than FSU. Also, FSU lost to NC State who lost to Tenn. There is a possibility that Driskel will be back for this game.

All I know for certain is that I will be having a heart attack this whole game.

[MonetBass]

One word: BEDLAM! Oklahoma State's defense has really stepped up over the last few weeks, and now has five different receivers with 100+ -yard games this season. Chelf is playing very well at the QB position, too. The Sooners had to come from behind to beat an inspired West Virginia team, but they get to play the Cowboys at home. As always, throw the records out the window. This is BEDLAM!

[basstotheface]

FSU 21
UF 7

FSU takes the state championship 3 years in a row (the first time that's ever happened).

Really wish Driskel was playing.

[Eublet]

Yeah, I always hate playing another team without their key player. It cheapens the win IMO. Even with Driskell though, FSU will be tough to beat this year.

[MJ5150]

I'll be spending this evening preparing for a Saturday college football viewing marathon. I need to see what games are on when, if I need to bring in another TV, who to invite over, what to cook/prepare, and double check the wife doesn't have anything else lined up.

Florida wins this weekend, so does Oregon State.

-Mike

[Tractorr]

I don't think that FSU will score over 14 points against Florida. Though that could be enough points considering how bad Florida's offense is.

Toaster, I am really not sure what the historical record against the SEC matters. I will be the first to say that ND is one of the most dominant teams historically, but times have changed. Before scholarship limits and cable television ND got almost every player they wanted. Now they don't have quite that advantage anymore. Plus, only deluded SEC fans are going to call the SEC historically "mighty." The SEC has only recently become so good because of demographic shifts away from the midwest.

There was an article I read recently about how their are more NFL starters from the SEC states (not counting Texas and Missouri) than all of the other states combined. Granted not all of those players went to SEC schools but most of them did. This is not true historically so only a moron of an SEC fan would claim the SEC to always be "mighty."

[Passinwind]

Originally Posted by MJ5150

Florida wins this weekend, so does Oregon State.

I actually think Oregon State could've won the PAC this year if their starting QB had stayed healthy. Could've, would've, should've...but he seems pretty healthy now. The Civil War is like Pats-Giants for me: like both teams, don't really care who wins all that much.

[MJ5150]

By the way, Driskel is playing for Florida this weekend against Florida State.

-Mike

[GregC]

Originally Posted by MJ5150

By the way, Driskel is playing for Florida this weekend against Florida State.

-Mike

Good! But I still think the Gators lose by 10, unless the defense or special teams score a TD. I hate hate hate the offense right now.

[GregC]

Originally Posted by Smokin' Toaster

i wasn't bashing the SEC as much as pointing out that statments like Sheridan's have been made many times in the past and I posted the record. I guess he's got about a 60 shot at being right this time too.

I'm not so sure about that. Tractorr's point is that the SEC's run of dominance is recent, so (A) statements such as Sheridan's may very well NOT have been made many times before and (B) ND's record against the SEC MAY be a lot less impressive during that recent span of time.

[Eublet]

Originally Posted by Smokin' Toaster

EDIT - What was Sheridan's prediction for the Notre Dame - Oklahoma game? I can't find it. I'm guessing he picked OK.

Sheridan doesn't pick games. He's an odds-maker. I still think you don't understand what this means perhaps? It's okay if you don't, seriously. I'm not a betting person myself either, but I do like following odds. Anyway, as an odds-maker/handicapper, Sheridan is right more than he is wrong...by a long shot. He does it for a living after all. He can't see the future of course, but people like Sheridan are amazing for what they do, even if they're a bit quacky like he is for everything else they say. Point is, if Sheridan says Bama, LSU, SC, Florida and Georgia would all be 10 point favorites over ND, you can pretty much take it to the bank statistically, because over time he's going to be right far more often than he is wrong. That doesn't mean ND will lose the game, or that they have no chance, or that he's an idiot because you can find a game that didn't go as Sheridan handicapped it.

[Eublet]

Originally Posted by Smokin' Toaster

Uh, ok.

Definition for odds maker:
Web definitions:
someone who sets the betting odds based on calculations of the outcome of a contest (especially a horse race).
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

That's a poor definition to say the least. Of course, odds-making does have a loose connection to the outcome of the game. But really what odds-making is about is generating revenue that exceeds payouts resulting in profit. An odds-maker's job is to set the line at a place that encourages people to bet in ways that will make the house money while minimizing risk of payout. The line itself isn't a prediction for the game, and folks who bet on the game can do so in a variety of ways that could make them or the house money, regardless of who wins or loses the contest. There are people like Johnathan Stone who sell their own handicapping services as a way to help betters BEAT the odds, which is different from someone who sets the odds like Sheridan. Completely different objectives and purposes though.

At best, Sheridan's comments can be taken as meaning all top 10 SEC teams would be favored to beat ND if playing this weekend. I think that's a bit risky for him to suggest that, but I'm not sure it's extreme. He's probably taking a little liberty there knowing that nothing is on the line at this point by saying it. However, since you are a ND fan, I would just say don't get too worked up about any of this, and go ahead and accept that ND isn't going to be favored in any matchup regardless of who shows up in Miami. It won't be because of ND hate either because the people who will be doing this are more concerned about their jobs and making money than they are with hating on ND.

Going back to my previous comments, it's quite remarkable how accurate odds-making is statistically over time. Sheridan is one of the best in the business and has been doing it for a long time. He's quacky though, for sure!

[Eublet]

From Sheridan's own website, Betting 101 is a good place to start with understanding odds-making: http://www.dannysheridan.com/sports/betting-101.php

[MJ5150]

What are you angling here for ST? It feels to me like the gang here respects Notre Dame. You feeling dissed?

-Mike

[aborgman]

Originally Posted by Smokin' Toaster

Uh, ok.

Definition for odds maker:
Web definitions:
someone who sets the betting odds based on calculations of the outcome of a contest (especially a horse race).
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

Emphasis added by yours truly.

Please explain how someone could be an "odds-maker" and NOT predict the outcome?
How can one possibly predict a point spread without predicting a winner of the contest?
Thank you for permission to not understand. I'm guessing I'm not alone in that.

"Team A will score 10 points more than Team B, but this in no way is a prediction of who will win the game."
"Horse A will finish the race ahead of all other horses, but this in no way is a prediction of the outcome of the race."

Is that how it works?

No, that ISN'T how it works.

Oddsmakers set odds to try to balance the amount of money wagered on each line.

The oddsmaker's job is to get an even amount of action on each side of the game and nothing else.

They aren't trying to predict the winner - they're trying to make the most possible money.

[MJ5150]

I don't wager on sports. I recognize the name, but don't know anything about the guy.

-Mike

[Eublet]

Originally Posted by aborgman

They aren't trying to predict the winner - they're trying to make the most possible money.

This is accurate. In a sense, an odds-maker has his finger on the pulse of the betting country also, trying to determine how they will bet. They set odds such that people will want to place wagers contrary to the odds they establish, but at the same time know that many people will bet in the other direction to help offset that. If the voting masses go too far in any one direction which increases risk, then the line will shift. Either way, the house makes money regardless of who wins. There is no "error" at least not in the way Toasty used the word.