Scary Story (GOM oil leak content)

[Codger]

I read a forum posting from a reader on The Oil Drum that describes a very scary scenario about what is really going on with that well. One endgame has the entire reservoir leaking into the GOM. That's 2.5 billion barrels, not gallons. It's worth a read simply to get an idea of the technology and risks involved when boring holes through rock into oil/gas reservoirs.

[guroove]

This is something that I have been fearing since this whole mess started, and it's even scarier to hear that people who understand this thing better than I ever will think the same thing. The leak is most likely not going to get plugged. It's a mile under water and it is gushing out under high pressure. The best bet is for BP to drill another well and suck what's left out of the reservoir.

[iamlowsound]

What I don't understand is why don't the just stick another pipe down the well and use that to suck all the oil out into a waiting tanker. Seems way more logical than some of the other things that they have tried.

lowsound

[GeneralElectric]

They need to sink my truck into that oil well. Its a real gas guzzler.

[mike_v_s]

Originally Posted by iamlowsound

What I don't understand is why don't the just stick another pipe down the well and use that to suck all the oil out into a waiting tanker. Seems way more logical than some of the other things that they have tried.

lowsound

I'm not as up to speed on this as I'd like to be, but I had assumed that in order to capture all of the oil leaking, the vacuum pressure would have to exceed that of the exiting oil and gas, otherwise a large part of it would blow by the collection pipe. Proximity to the exit point is also key, as the material appears to be expanding at a good rate, too.

It think they've known the whole time that the only solution with a decent chance of success was the relief well. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being at least a temporary solution for all deepwater exploratory wells in the wake of this. Sadly, the public will quickly forget about the safety when they see how much it costs them to fill up a car with two rigs in place of one.

Mike

[Fontaine]

Well the relief wells from what I understand are going to be drilled into the damaged wellbore which will divert the flow of hydrocarbons (which makes sense). After that is complete, cement and plug the well.

[Codger]

Originally Posted by Fontaine

Well the relief wells from what I understand are going to be drilled into the damaged wellbore which will divert the flow of hydrocarbons (which makes sense). After that is complete, cement and plug the well.

I don't think relief wells are used to extract or divert well hydrocarbons. Rather they are used to inject heavy material into the well to plug it at a point below any unstable foundation or damaged well casing.

From the Blowout (well drilling) Wiki article:

Sometimes, blowouts can be so forceful that they cannot be directly brought under control from the surface, particularly if there is so much energy in the flowing zone that it does not deplete significantly over the course of a blowout. In such cases, other wells (called relief wells) may be drilled to intersect the well or pocket, in order to allow kill-weight fluids to be introduced at depth. Contrary to what might be inferred from the term, such wells generally are not used to help relieve pressure using multiple outlets from the blowout zone.

If there is a blowout then the longer it flows it will continue to erode the well, the surrounding rock foundation into which it is flowing thus exacerbating the blowout problem. It really at that point is a race to get the relief wells drilled and the well plugged before the further erosion of the well and surrounding seabed reaches a point of no return.

Sort of a doomsday scenario.

[drteeth]

That is a scary story indeed.

[Thor]

Being in the seafood industry as many of you may know, I can
tell you that many of us are not happy campers over this.

Gulf fisherman are facing an unmitigated disaster. At this point,
sales of Gulf fish have retrenched significantly though
harvested in currently unimpacted areas. Consumers hear the
word Gulf and close their wallets or buy something else.

The Gulf won't be the same in my lifetime.

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop the
oil flow. JMHO.

[SoComSurfing]

Originally Posted by GeneralElectric

They need to sink my truck into that oil well. Its a real gas guzzler.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. He'll be here all month. Tip your servers and try the veal.

[SoComSurfing]

I agree with Thor whole-heartedly, except for one thing: he's got a few years on me, and I'm afraid that the Gulf fishing won't be the same in my lifetime. Sure, the Pres ate some Gulf seafood yesterday. Unfortunately, what they're not telling, is that ANY seafood served in the Mobile area (where he was), is being brought over from the far eastern edge of the Florida Panhandle. Wintzell's Oyster House, a Mobile staple, used to get their oysters for all their restaurants from the local area. Now they're bringing in seafood from Apalachicola, FL, and further east. Their northern-Alabama restaurant is already bringing oysters in daily from Virginia.

[Webtroll]

Originally Posted by Thor

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop the
oil flow. JMHO.

Aye. Without pointing fingers I think "we" took too long to take BP to task on this one. They should have been all over this since day one instead of sitting back thinking about getting another well or 2 by September to recoup lost revenue.

[wazzel]

Originally Posted by Thor

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop the
oil flow. JMHO.

You would be incorrect. The way forward has always been to kill the well. Collecting was never a primary solution.

[need4mospd]

Originally Posted by Thor

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop the
oil flow. JMHO.

I've heard this theory from a lot of people, mostly those that don't know what they're talking about.

Think about the amount of profits BP makes from this ONE oil rig. We're talking maybe tens of millions in it's life time, once you take out the $500,000 a DAY operating costs of such a rig. I don't know, maybe they'd see a hundred million. Big money right?

Meanwhile, the drop in their stock price has cost them BILLIONS.

Make sense now?

[Gard]

Originally Posted by need4mospd

I've heard this theory from a lot of people, mostly those that don't know what they're talking about.

Think about the amount of profits BP makes from this ONE oil rig. We're talking maybe tens of millions in it's life time, once you take out the $500,000 a DAY operating costs of such a rig. I don't know, maybe they'd see a hundred million. Big money right?

Meanwhile, the drop in their stock price has cost them BILLIONS.

Make sense now?

As ticked off as I am about this (and O, you KNOW I'm one P!$$ED off Cajun boy!), I know this was never an issue.

Now, were they INCOMPETENT in dealing with the situation once it happened? Yes, I firmly believe they were frozen by the magnitude of the situation they faced, and they handled it poorly from the get-go.

Were they INADEQUATELY PREPARED to attempt this in the first place? Absolutely based on all evidence.

They're getting spanked pretty hard in the marketplace right now, and deserve every penny of loss they are facing.

I think that those at MMS that let the well be drilled in the first place, without adequate safety in place, and without an accurate and effective plan in place if there were a problem should be as liable as those at BP, Deepwater, and Haliburton are.

Given my druthers in this situation, they'd all be penniless tomorrow, then tarred & feathered the next day, then drawn & quartered the following day.

Luckily for all responsible parties, my feelings and opinions on a justifiable punishment have nothing to do with the reality they face - which is probably darn near as scary.

[Codger]

Originally Posted by iamlowsound

What I don't understand is why don't the just stick another pipe down the well and use that to suck all the oil out into a waiting tanker.

That was the first thing tried, the so-called Riser Insertion Tube Tool.

Originally Posted by Thor

Being in the seafood industry as many of you may know, I can tell you that many of us are not happy campers over this.

Gulf fisherman are facing an unmitigated disaster.<snip>

The Gulf won't be the same in my lifetime.

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop he
oil flow. JMHO.

I agree with all your points and with emphasis, except the last one. IMHO, BP cannot plug the well or do anything that will increase the pressure in the well. I think they are worried about a truly catastrophic underground blowout where hydrocarbons would erupt not from just the damaged well but from fissures in the surrounding sea bottom. I think that is why they cut the riser pipe off to let it flow as freely as possible. I think their efforts now are strictly damage control. Until the relief wells are drilled they will devise and implement various means to collect as much oil as possible. They will hold press conferences and hope other news articles divert the public attention. Again, IMHO.

EDIT: I truly hope I am wrong about this - I have lived on Florida's east coast, about two blocks from the ocean for most of fifty years and have enjoyed all that the proximity to the ocean provides.

[Bigjohn]

If they could, they would.
But a well involves much more complex engineering than that. There is a wellhead on the ocean floor at the top of the bore hole and there are casings that taper in diameter (as they go deeper) lining the (miles deep) borehole and those casings must withstand pressures. Those casings must be properly hung from the wellhead and sealed to one another and properly cemented (on the outside) all along (and to) the borehole and on top of the wellhead there is a complex system of valves that must operate properly.
All that is tore to hell.
http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/20...on-statements/
There is no "cleanup". There's is no point. People aren't grasping that. If a pressurized waterpipe bursts in your house, do you try to blot your carpet with towels and dry it with a hairdryer while the pipe is gushing water out a hole in your wall?
I'm afraid the agonies are just beginning. It's leaking more than ever. Top-kill, junk shot and cutting the riser have made it worse. This gizmo they've installed isn't collecting even half of the oil. There is no end in sight. BP and the Obama administration are hiding the truth about the leak rate and the abysmal, deteriorating condition of the well.
This will be the worst oil disaster in human history. As time goes on, Saddam's 1991 scorched-earth vandalism will be but a sweet soft Gwyneth Paltrow kiss by comparason.

Originally Posted by iamlowsound

What I don't understand is why don't the just stick another pipe down the well and use that to suck all the oil out into a waiting tanker. Seems way more logical than some of the other things that they have tried.

lowsound

[cassanova]

Originally Posted by Thor

Being in the seafood industry as many of you may know, I can
tell you that many of us are not happy campers over this.

Gulf fisherman are facing an unmitigated disaster. At this point,
sales of Gulf fish have retrenched significantly though
harvested in currently unimpacted areas. Consumers hear the
word Gulf and close their wallets or buy something else.

The Gulf won't be the same in my lifetime.

I am firmly conviced that this well could be plugged, but that
BP is trying to 'capture' the oil flow as opposed to stop the
oil flow. JMHO.

That's what I was thinking too. This thing could be plugged someway somehow. We put people into space but can't fix a broken pipeline at the bottom of the Gulf? C'mon.

I also agree with you about the Gulf not being the same. Fortunately, over time, the environment will rebound and others will get to enjoy it and mess it up all over again.

[Orph]

Originally Posted by Codger

That was the first thing tried, the so-called Riser Insertion Tube Tool.

I agree with all your points and with emphasis, except the last one. IMHO, BP cannot plug the well or do anything that will increase the pressure in the well. I think they are worried about a truly catastrophic underground blowout where hydrocarbons would erupt not from just the damaged well but from fissures in the surrounding sea bottom. I think that is why they cut the riser pipe off to let it flow as freely as possible. I think their efforts now are strictly damage control. Until the relief wells are drilled they will devise and implement various means to collect as much oil as possible. They will hold press conferences and hope other news articles divert the public attention. Again, IMHO.

EDIT: I truly hope I am wrong about this - I have lived on Florida's east coast, about two blocks from the ocean for most of fifty years and have enjoyed all that the proximity to the ocean provides.

I highly doubt this is the case. The well is probably quite a ways below the sea floor. There is VERY little man can do to increase the pressure (significantly at least) in an oil reservoir this size. Eventually the pressure difference will dissipate, and the oil flow will subside. There is no way the entire reservoir will end up in the sea. That does not mean this is not significant, though. It's the worst disaster caused by man since... Well. I can't think of anything other than Chernobyl and Exxon Valdez.

[Fontaine]

Originally Posted by Codger

I don't think relief wells are used to extract or divert well hydrocarbons. Rather they are used to inject heavy material into the well to plug it at a point below any unstable foundation or damaged well casing.

From the Blowout (well drilling) Wiki article:
If there is a blowout then the longer it flows it will continue to erode the well, the surrounding rock foundation into which it is flowing thus exacerbating the blowout problem. It really at that point is a race to get the relief wells drilled and the well plugged before the further erosion of the well and surrounding seabed reaches a point of no return.

Sort of a doomsday scenario.

Nope, the relief well will drill into the wellbore, and used to pump down heavy material (heavy weight drill mud, i.e: loaded down with barite) to achieve hydrostatic pressure in the well.