In your opinion, what direction do you see the economy going?

[The Crusader]

For the year 2009, what direction do you see the economy going?

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being a complete collapse and 10 being very strong with low unemployment, housing market stabilizing/recovering, etc., etc.

what's your opinion and experiences?

[Phalex]

I'm guessing about a 3. I don't see things getting any better for quite a while, I'm just hoping they don't get a lot worse.

[QuelOround]

4-5 maybe?

[thumpbass1]

After being unemployed from a regular day job for over a year now, and after applying for countless positions, with many interviews, and being nearly hired just last week before the CEO at the company I was nearly hired at just ordered a hiring freeze, I'd have to give the economy a 4.5.

[JQ1986]

I'm a pessimist so I'll say 2 or 3. Hope it can get better though, I would like to find a different job sometime next year.

[The Crusader]

poll is now up.
for those of you with credit cards: have your credit lines been reduced at all? or accounts closed by the issuing bank?

for those with HELOCs (home equity lines of credit): has your issuing bank reduced your available cash due to decreasing home values?

[AlembicPlayer]

this will be impossible to discuss without it getting political.

that said,
one system has to almost completely fail and collapse before a new one can be implemented.
I believe the next step in the new world order will be ushered in by the next administration and the Amero north American currency will be introduced to save the day.
look for it coming soon to a empire near you

[The Crusader]

Originally Posted by AlembicPlayer

this will be impossible to discuss without it getting political.

that said,
one system has to completely fail and collapse before a new one can be implemented.
I believe the new world order will be ushered in the by the next administration and the Amero north American currency will be introduced to save the day.
look for it coming soon to a empire near you

well, let's not try, but do. leave the politics out of it people. feel free though to PM me re: NWO.
anyway, what I am really interested in is peoples opinions and experiences so far.

[Johnny Crab]

The world is in a prolonged attempt to prop up a fiat money system.

Since this is a GLOBAL event this time around expect "financial" skirmishes between countries in the form of:
1) Currency devaluation(going on now, google it)
2) Tariff games
3) "Injections" of "money" by countries to paper over a problem

Two of the US major econ-dumps(1857 & 1929) were cured by wars. We already have the un-affordable GWOT on two fronts that is bankrupting the US.

2008 will not be like 2009.
As a former Boy Scout and having an electrical engineering degree(Tulane), I plan for the worst cases and welcome the best cases.

Here are some links should you wish to learn more.
Get up to speed: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
What is money? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8

Note that the links below are listed because they have been CORRECT in predictions WAY in advance.
Forum:http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www
Commentary:
http://market-ticker.org/
http://www.youtube.com/user/visionvictory
http://www.youtube.com/user/kdenninger

Other than those, scan the google business pages, Forbes, Bloomberg, and Asian papers(in English) to get an idea what the big picture is. Read the BLS employment report especially the U6(REAL number) unemployment data.

A previous poster was correct as it is a challenge to keep this on the PC-track with obvious tossing of "public funds" into black holes and refusing to reveal where $$$$ went.

Result?
Anywhere from a 1 to 5.
It ain't gonna be pretty no matter how we get through this "event".

I DID NOT VOTE for # 1.
I have been wrong before though.

[hbarcat]

The $1 trillion + dollars that the U.S. has recently printed up out of thin air will serve to "stimulate" the economy, but that effect is only temporary and it seems certain that U.S. economic policy in the next year or two is to employ more of the same kind of neo-Keynesian stimulus in the form of deficit spending totaling as much as $2 trillion dollars a year. That will only accelerate the increase to the national debt, which is already around $13 trillion, and well past the limit of what any economist would consider "fiscally prudent". The total value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. in a year (GDP) is about $13 trillion, and countries that increase their debts beyond the level of GDP in this manner risk disaster (such as actual bankruptcy).

I predict increasingly unstable markets over the next year or two, with wide fluctuations up and down as "stimulus" spending works its way through different market segments and then is depleted. Then I predict that in three to four years, as more baby boomers retire and go from paying into social security to being social security recipients, our governments creditors will start to demand their trillions of dollars in debt and it simply won't be there. Thus begins The Great Depression II.

[hbarcat]

Johnny Crab, great post!

[The Crusader]

without looking, I think that I know who voted 1.

[Deacon_Blues]

If everyone thinks the economy will collapse, that is what is going to happen. Nothing steers the economy as much as how people guess the future will turn out. If people are optimistic about the world economy it will get better, if they are pessimistic it will get worse.

I voted 4, because I don't want to be too pessimistic.

2009 will be worse than 2008, but I believe it will turn up again towards the end of the year, or latest in 2010. My voting is based on how I think the world economy will develop, not the US economy alone.

[Bongolation]

Originally Posted by The Crusader

leave the politics out of it people.

Given the subject, that's impossible in its meaningful discussion.

It's a political problem with a largely political influence on outcome.

[CrazyArcher]

+1 to hbarcat's words.
3-4 IMO. Over here companies lay off people; I'll be in the military by the end of 2009 so the employment issue isn't really relevant for me, but it surely makes an uneasy feeling. Stock markets fall, the market of corporate bonds is also going down. The banks are relatively strong, though. I don't really see the matters recovering over the next year. Printing more USDs surely isn't gonna solve the problem.

[Rocker949]

Originally Posted by Bongolation

Given the subject, that's impossible in its meaningful discussion.

It's a political problem with a largely political influence on outcome.

I agree. Even if what happened didn't have its origin in politics, it would take a lot of political activitity to try and correct it. That's why a topic such as this can't be discussed in a comprehensive way here. Otherwise, things would break down into a shouting match. People have to tiptoe around the topic and there have been some really good posts in spite of that.

[Jefenator]

I think it will get worse before it gets better. The ripples will make more ripples. My day job is a couple months behind the curve - didn't get our cutback notices until a couple weeks ago. I'm getting a few more hours, prepping for some wholesale shows but if those go poorly... my "winter" might last all year.

Hopefully this whole thing will slap some sense in to all of us. Borrowing should be a tool, not a way of life.

[TheoFly]

Originally Posted by Johnny Crab

The world is in a prolonged attempt to prop up a fiat money system.

Excellent post. We are all witnesses to an historic event that equals or surpasses our grandfather's experiences. I am afraid the house of cards is crashing down and all the 'happy facing' in the world won't stop it. I am astounded how many people have no idea how their money is created and seem blissfully unaware that their future is being stolen from them.

[hbarcat]

Just being "optimistic" won't magically solve the underlying problems with the economy, and it's not just in the U.S.-- the same problems are affecting most countries.

Huge piles of debt are not something that can just be made to disappear by having a good attitude and continuing to spend money as if we could just continue to keep printing more of it as needed.

It's the same for national economies as it is for business and personal economies. Solving the problem of debt can only be done thorough a long and painful process of hard work and strict self discipline and fiscal responsibility. Opening up new lines of credit and going on a spending spree is NOT the right way to do this.

[Bongolation]

Originally Posted by Rocker949

a topic such as this can't be discussed in a comprehensive way here. Otherwise, things would break down into a shouting match.

Between musicians, no less.

People have to tiptoe around the topic

I've never been any good at that. Life's too short.

Seems to be a big problem on these social-networking fora.

I couldn't even give an honest statement of my own feelings about how it concerns me without people flaming me, I'm sure.

Anyway, all serious questions seem to eventually reduce to politics or religion.