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When is "probability" not good enough?

Discussion in 'Off Topic [BG]' started by Root 5, Mar 7, 2014.


  1. Root 5

    Root 5

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    In what instances would you say probability is not a high enough standard?

    An obvious example I think of is a murder trial where sentencing an accused to death, or life without parole based on probability isn't a high enough test. That said, I don't doubt it happens..

    What if ground crew of an airline said the jet on which your child will be flying "probably" has enough fuel to make it from LA to Tokyo?

    Would you allow your child to board the plane?

    What are some other examples?
     
  2. Frank Tuesday

    Frank Tuesday

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  3. tangentmusic

    tangentmusic A figment of our exaggeration

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    There is a probability that if you move to northern Japan you may suffer the consequences of radiation poisoning due to the tsunami caused nuclear plant damage.

    No thanks...
     
  4. Gaolee

    Gaolee The Fat Violin Supporting Member

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    I can think of lots of probablys that are not good enough.
     
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  6. Ziltoid

    Ziltoid Supporting Member

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  7. GlennW

    GlennW

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  8. Milk

    Milk

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    Like there's a high enough probability if you live in california, especially southern, you will have to live through a pretty big earthquake in your lifetime that may, if not kill you, at least destroy a lot of what you own. No thanks.

    That's why i don't get Hollywood. You have the money to live anywhere else! Why there? Then again, they have the money to buy another house if the lose theirs...
     
  9. Unrepresented

    Unrepresented Something Borderline Offensive Supporting Member

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    Everything in life is a probability. There is nothing we as individuals or a society have complete mastery over.
     
  10. will33

    will33

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    That hand grenade probably won't go off in 3 seconds.

    That bridge probably won't collapse.

    That parachute will probably open.
     
  11. will33

    will33

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    She's probably on birth control.

    Birth control works most of the time.

    That condom probably won't break.
     
  12. Bocete

    Bocete My E string is 36 1/4" long Supporting Member

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    SoCal is not a deathzone :smug:

    Probability is inherit to pretty much everything. Even if they say that the plane is full on fuel, maybe some employee lied about it, or there's a leak that will become apparent in low air pressure, and maybe the fuel capacity sensor is defective etc. You do go on a plane without manually inspecting the fuel compartments just before the flight?

    We don't really deal with absolutes. We usually proceed with reasonable certainty or doubt
     
  13. jugglingfreak

    jugglingfreak

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    Yep, the only certainty is that everyone will die at some point. Beyond that, it's all probability.
     
  14. Milk

    Milk

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    You just say that cause you live in SoCal.

    You're going down man, face it, it's just a matter of time

    Although i don't know, i think san diego is not so bad earthquakes wise isnt it
     
  15. Milk

    Milk

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    You're saying these aren't good enough probabilities? What do you do then? Abstinence? (though i used to have a gf that required both birth control AND condom, seemed overkill but that put the risk at probably 0.0000000001% i have to say)
     
  16. will33

    will33

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    There's been earthquakes in other areas of the country. Something about the earths crust getting pushed in, then rebounding/springing back, but it probably won't happen in our lifetime.
     
  17. Ziltoid

    Ziltoid Supporting Member

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    p<0.05 is all I need to publish, therefor it is my life.

    :ninja:
     
  18. Unrepresented

    Unrepresented Something Borderline Offensive Supporting Member

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    You never know which delicious street taco may be your last.:|
     
  19. will33

    will33

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    Didn't say anything about the level of probability, just "probably".

    Didn't say anything about abstinence either, though it is the only thing that is 100% instead of a probability.
     
  20. Milk

    Milk

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    I imagine. The diarrhea wont kill you, but the non-FDA approved beef might. They call it street food but the meat is usually from a back alley.
     
  21. Milk

    Milk

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    To be honest, over a decade of pulling out, still haven't knocked up anyone (well condoms when i wasnt sure if they were clean).:bag: Like Hunter S Thompson said about drug and alcohol, I wouldn't reccomend it, but it's worked for me.
     

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