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When is "probability" not good enough?

Discussion in 'Off Topic [BG]' started by Root 5, Mar 7, 2014.


  1. Root 5

    Root 5

    Nov 25, 2001
    Earth
    In what instances would you say probability is not a high enough standard?

    An obvious example I think of is a murder trial where sentencing an accused to death, or life without parole based on probability isn't a high enough test. That said, I don't doubt it happens..

    What if ground crew of an airline said the jet on which your child will be flying "probably" has enough fuel to make it from LA to Tokyo?

    Would you allow your child to board the plane?

    What are some other examples?
     
  2. Frank Tuesday

    Frank Tuesday

    Jul 11, 2008
    Austin, TX
  3. tangentmusic

    tangentmusic A figment of our exaggeration

    Aug 17, 2007
    Way Out West
    There is a probability that if you move to northern Japan you may suffer the consequences of radiation poisoning due to the tsunami caused nuclear plant damage.

    No thanks...
     
  4. Gaolee

    Gaolee The Fat Violin Supporting Member

    I can think of lots of probablys that are not good enough.
     
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  6. Ziltoid

    Ziltoid

    Apr 10, 2009
    Canada
  7. GlennW

    GlennW

    Sep 6, 2006
  8. Milk

    Milk

    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada

    Like there's a high enough probability if you live in california, especially southern, you will have to live through a pretty big earthquake in your lifetime that may, if not kill you, at least destroy a lot of what you own. No thanks.

    That's why i don't get Hollywood. You have the money to live anywhere else! Why there? Then again, they have the money to buy another house if the lose theirs...
     
  9. Unrepresented

    Unrepresented Something Borderline Offensive

    Jul 1, 2006
    San Diego, CA
    Everything in life is a probability. There is nothing we as individuals or a society have complete mastery over.
     
  10. will33

    will33 Banned

    May 22, 2006
    austin,tx
    That hand grenade probably won't go off in 3 seconds.

    That bridge probably won't collapse.

    That parachute will probably open.
     
  11. will33

    will33 Banned

    May 22, 2006
    austin,tx
    She's probably on birth control.

    Birth control works most of the time.

    That condom probably won't break.
     
  12. Bocete

    Bocete My E string is 36 1/4" long Supporting Member

    Sep 30, 2006
    SoCal is not a deathzone :smug:

    Probability is inherit to pretty much everything. Even if they say that the plane is full on fuel, maybe some employee lied about it, or there's a leak that will become apparent in low air pressure, and maybe the fuel capacity sensor is defective etc. You do go on a plane without manually inspecting the fuel compartments just before the flight?

    We don't really deal with absolutes. We usually proceed with reasonable certainty or doubt
     
  13. Yep, the only certainty is that everyone will die at some point. Beyond that, it's all probability.
     
  14. Milk

    Milk

    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada
    You just say that cause you live in SoCal.

    You're going down man, face it, it's just a matter of time

    Although i don't know, i think san diego is not so bad earthquakes wise isnt it
     
  15. Milk

    Milk

    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada
    You're saying these aren't good enough probabilities? What do you do then? Abstinence? (though i used to have a gf that required both birth control AND condom, seemed overkill but that put the risk at probably 0.0000000001% i have to say)
     
  16. will33

    will33 Banned

    May 22, 2006
    austin,tx
    There's been earthquakes in other areas of the country. Something about the earths crust getting pushed in, then rebounding/springing back, but it probably won't happen in our lifetime.
     
  17. Ziltoid

    Ziltoid

    Apr 10, 2009
    Canada
    p<0.05 is all I need to publish, therefor it is my life.

    :ninja:
     
  18. Unrepresented

    Unrepresented Something Borderline Offensive

    Jul 1, 2006
    San Diego, CA
    You never know which delicious street taco may be your last.:|
     
  19. will33

    will33 Banned

    May 22, 2006
    austin,tx
    Didn't say anything about the level of probability, just "probably".

    Didn't say anything about abstinence either, though it is the only thing that is 100% instead of a probability.
     
  20. Milk

    Milk

    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada
    I imagine. The diarrhea wont kill you, but the non-FDA approved beef might. They call it street food but the meat is usually from a back alley.
     
  21. Milk

    Milk

    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada

    To be honest, over a decade of pulling out, still haven't knocked up anyone (well condoms when i wasnt sure if they were clean).:bag: Like Hunter S Thompson said about drug and alcohol, I wouldn't reccomend it, but it's worked for me.