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Buying before possible price increases?

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous [BG]' started by Freightshaker, Jul 11, 2018.

  1. The landscape of international trade is changing. Just wondering if others are stocking up on gear like strings, etc.

    Personally, I just moved up the purchase date of items that were on my mental list. For example, I re-tubed one amp, bought tubes for another, and picked up a couple of pedals not made in the states.

    I have no insider knowledge if these items will see a price increase, but I don't want the goal posts moved on something I was planning to buy.

    Please, NO politics, just seeing if others are doing something similar.
  2. soulman969

    soulman969 SUSPENDED

    Oct 6, 2011
    Englewood, Colorado
    Nothing out of the ordinary for me.

    I'd rather wait and respond to what I do know than react to what I don't know.
    ruju and eJake like this.
  3. I don't think anyone knows for sure. I do know that the steel wear houses where I deliver, have been stocking up for months. How this trickles dow to MI gear is anybodys guess.
  4. saabfender


    Jan 10, 2018
    I can’t let things like that dictate when I buy things I need. I don’t drive around on Empty waiting for the price to go down.
  5. eJake


    May 22, 2011
    New Orleans
    To avoid politics, I'll stick to answering your question. No.
  6. Snaxster


    Nov 29, 2008
    Hello. Everything is constantly changing. Not always greatly all at once, but constantly. I am not an economist, but to me you are describing an example of market speculation.

    In a further post you mention local steel warehouses stocking up. Do you know why they are? I would think that speculating without well-founded analysis usually will end badly. You alluded to this with "how this trickles down...".

    Maybe nowadays there are price forecasting services for consumers; you give them a list of retail items or sectors to track, and they push a summary to you, showing both current prices and predictions of future prices. How would we use such a service? Generalizing:

    one way would be the 'things are changing' or 'something undesirable could happen' approach, which could spur a consumer to spend a lot of time tracking prices and forecasts, then buy speculatively;

    another way would be the 'on demand' approach, wherein a consumer needed to buy something and used the service to help them find the best price. This one is basically what most online shoppers do today, with the addition of prediction.​

    My sense is that market speculation as a guide for personal purchases almost never will be useful to most individuals; and that the bigger the market, the truer that is. International trade is a pretty big market.
    Freightshaker likes this.
  7. GIBrat51

    GIBrat51 Innocent as the day is long Supporting Member

    Mar 5, 2013
    Lost Wages, Nevada
    To answer your question; no, I'm not stocking up on stuff. However, I won't think less of anybody who feels they have to. Everyone sees life differently...
    One of the benefits (and there are damn few of them, to be honest) of being an old fart, is that stuff like this isn't a new, scary thing. It's more of an " well, ain't this wonderful... here we go again" kind of thing. It's happened before in my lifetime, and everything worked out OK, so... no big deal. It'll probably happen again in your lifetime, too. And, most likely it won't be a big deal then, either...:whistle:
    Freightshaker likes this.
  8. ruju


    Dec 9, 2017
    No stocking up going on here. I have three basses and I always keep one spare set of strings. I don’t change them too often either so I’m not too worried.

    I’ve also stopped gassing over most new gear as I’m pretty happy now with what I have acquired and it’s just a hobby at this point for me.
    Freightshaker likes this.
  9. Ben B

    Ben B Supporting Member

    Jul 13, 2006
    San Diego, CA
    IMHO, the musical instrument industry is less likely to be affected than most markets. And I don't expect any drastic changes in most other markets. Some short term speculation here and there, sure. So, no, I don't have any plans to stock up on gear or supplies.
    Freightshaker likes this.
  10. Jeff Scott

    Jeff Scott Rickenbacker guru.......... Supporting Member

    Apr 11, 2006
    Rumor has it that the sun is going to "flame out" one day. What should we do to prepare for that? ;)

    And, we won't know it occurred until around eight minutes after it happens. :eek:
  11. fdeck

    fdeck Supporting Member Commercial User

    Mar 20, 2004
    Madison WI
    HPF Technology LLC
    I suspect it's very hard to change consumer prices, and instead, suppliers will take it in the shorts. This is assuming anything really happens over any substantial time period. One thing that might happen, is that prices won't seem to change, but the supply of entry level models suddenly dries up.

    My guess is that the risk of making a rash purchase outweighs any money that you might save by rushing to buy something. Also, replacing "paid for" items that are still working just fine, is a pure cost, that would be hard to make up.
    Freightshaker likes this.
  12. two fingers

    two fingers Opinionated blowhard. But not mad about it. Gold Supporting Member

    Feb 7, 2005
    Eastern NC USA
    Nah. This will all settle out.

    Like it or not, this is a global market. All parties involved need all other parties involved.

    Any time one party wants to change the deal, the rest of them will do some saber rattling for a while.

    But, in the end, no country, not even the largest economy on Earth, can survive without orher countries.

    So it will settle down very soon. And when all is said and done, there may be some changes, but not huge changes.
    Freightshaker likes this.
  13. For the record, I have a degree in Economics but have never worked as an Economist and have not performed forecasting for an employer in almost two decades. I just have a genuine interest in the spending habits of consumers and corporations.

    I sincerely discourage any speculation without true knowledge of risk.

    Around November 2017, I watched as large and small companies started to stockpile steel. These places are now at storage capacity. I only know of one place that is expanding to hold more. As long as they can keep it dry, the risk is minimal. If import restrictions become significant, they stand to gain when they sell at the newer price. Canada is a large supplier for steel in the Great Lakes region.

    For many consumer products, labor and transportation contribute more to final price than raw materials. Shipping costs have doubled in some US regions with an average closer to 17%. Keep in mind that a product such as say a wheel bearing usually takes several trips in a semi since forging, cut, stamp, polish, and heat treat rarely done in the same facility.

    I'm not a "Prepper" nor am I hoarding anything in my home, except that my collection of spare tubes has slightly increased. I'm spent for the year on gear save for maybe a couple pedals.
  14. Metalbasspro


    Feb 9, 2009

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