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How much you think your new Fender will be worth 40 years from now?

Discussion in 'Basses [BG]' started by rubo, Sep 9, 2004.

  1. rubo


    Aug 25, 2003
    The prices of vintage Fenders only goes up, based on Ebay's prices a mint all stock 1965 Jazz would be about $4- 5k, so how much you think a 2000+ Fender USA would be worth in year 2040? And how much you think that 1965 would be worth in 2040?

  2. AlembicPlayer

    AlembicPlayer Im not wearing shorts

    Aug 15, 2004
    Pacific Northwet, USA

    2000+ Fender USA in 2040....my guess, whatever 200 or 300 bucks in today's money is worth.

    the 65...whatever the market will bear...maybe 10K, 20K?

    there's a reason the pre-CBS guitars are worth that much....it has to do with Leo Fender being in the company that bears his name, and the original design directly associated with him.
    Everything after that is a follow up..

    then again..anything made out of real wood in 2040 may be worth a fortune..

    it's anybody's guess
  3. rubo


    Aug 25, 2003
    Good point, but we also have to take into an account that there is a small amount of inflation every year. Late 60's and early 70's bases aren't Leo made too, but still hold their price. Also today we have lots of Luthiers offering much more for decent price.


  4. Tough to comment on 'worth', but in today's dollars? I'd say considerably less appreciable value than the early hand lathed and soldered instruments of 50's, 60's and even early 70's instruments. There's something about the mystique of actual human hands having considerable input into the making of of those early pieces and quite frankly, they just didn't turn out (in numbers) instruments anywhere near what Fender USA is producing now. I would say if you kept it in case w/ the 'ol tagger still on it (don't even look at it) ha... - it'll be worth at least double, but not like we're seeing w/ these Pre CBS basses and guitars - hell, you could've bought a '59 stack knob in 1960 for around $120 and I'd question your estimate of $4-$5K as being VERY conservative on a 'mint' piece. I have a lawyer friend of mine who actually purchased a stack knob (produced in the last month of their production) - literally flawless w/ tag and sales slip intact for $17.5K He says he'll never play it. Bought just as a museum piece and investment. Yikes.
  5. rubo


    Aug 25, 2003
    If we're talking about Hand build Fenders, what about Custom shop then, these should go up much more then regular ones.

  6. lucas vigor

    lucas vigor Banned

    Sep 2, 2004
    Orange County, Ca,
    I was under the impression that the age of the glue and wood was a factor in why Vintage pre-CBS basses are so great sounding...

    Following that logic, my 1996 MIA P-Bass in 2047 might be almost as good as a pre-CBS sounds now?
  7. Adam Barkley

    Adam Barkley Mayday!

    Aug 26, 2003
    Jackson, MS

    Also the nitro finish, the nitrocelluose lacqeur was put on thinner and broke down fairly quickly and allowed the wood to cure and settle much faster. Whereas the modern finishes are thick paint.

    Nice try, but I highly doubt it. Though several examples of modern Fender's have sounded better to me than many of the 70's-80's models I have tried.
  8. zombywoof5050


    Dec 20, 2001
    Would you say that James Jamerson's bass sounded good on the old hits he did? His bass wasn't old at all when those songs were recorded, on some of the early songs his bass was still new!
  9. rogerbmiller

    rogerbmiller Gold Supporting Member

    Sep 16, 2003
    Certainly not a "collectables" price the way '60 Fenders are worth today. They are just too widely produced with too many people buying the high enders thinking their "investment" will appreciate. Kind of like what happened to baseball cards during the collecting crave of the late 1980's.

    To project their price in 40 years, I would take each model and project and average annualized price increase (i.e. assume it will increase with inflation at 3% per year in the long run plus a 3% annual labor premium) and project this number out 40 years. Then take 70% of whatever that number is and consider your bass a used alternative to the latest model. I think this approach would at least work for the no-frills MIM's, wherever they may be made by underpaid workers in 40 years. This is kind of how 10 year old MIM's are valued. Just some percentage of list for a new MIM that makes it an attractive alternative to the buyer.

    Just my $.02

  10. SMASH...

    As for the first paragraph...that would be sad if that actually comes to pass.

    Second statement...valid point. And I think that very point is made clear for why the '60 JB is worth more than a '60 PB. The Jazz was the first of a new, modern sound (and playability). But I would say that a '51 in similar condition to the '60 J would tend to fetch a bit more $$$. (Essentially, cause it was the first properly marketed and well made, usable replacement for the upright.) I think one of the reasons we're not seeing those really early Rickenbackers (and I think Gibson had something out in the late 40's)...is because they weren't really reliable, rugged pieces to last the test of time.

    Lastly, I'm not sure the comparison should be made in broad strokes (i.e. Playboy vs. Fender). Regarding the 'use' of each...with this example: I'd venture to say, we can agree that most of us...if we 'needed' to use a sample of each, most would tend to pick a 'new' issue of PB for its intended purpose (no need to elaborate) as opposed to most bass players would prefer to pull out a mint '61 stack knob over a top of line Fender USA instrument produced at present.
  11. iualum


    Apr 9, 2004
    lol...one whole hellava lot less than the same amount of money invested wisely...buy an instrument because you enjoy playing it
  12. lenorules1950


    Aug 20, 2004
    Meriden, CT
    I only have Mexican Fenders- that being said, I think the only one that has any chance of becoming worth something later on is my Dirnt.
  13. Excellent point! That's exactly why I pulled the trigger on my '64 Jazz! ...I've gone many a moons without finding another bass with the character she has. And not a bad investment either. (I won't even say what I paid for it!)
  14. Aaron Saunders

    Aaron Saunders

    Apr 27, 2002
    Wouldn't it be great if Hoppus basses became the next generation's "75 Jazz"?