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what are the chances...

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous [BG]' started by sloppysubs, Jan 12, 2005.


  1. sloppysubs

    sloppysubs

    Nov 24, 2002
    Swansboro, NC
    ...that if a someone who was a musician (bass, guitar, drums, vox, piano...etc) were to drop out of school and go to where he/she thinks is the absolute best market for them to be and put them selves out there and get into a band and gig hard and regularaly and really go for, what are the chances of making it?
     
  2. DemoEtc

    DemoEtc

    Aug 18, 2004
    Estimate maybe 1 in 25,000?
     
  3. playmybass

    playmybass

    Mar 28, 2004
    Tucson, Az
    If youre talking about yourself, Id say stay in school.
     
  4. Seeing as it's all luck, probably the same as someone who did no work, but happened to be in the right place at the right time. However, I guess if you dedicate yourself to it more, you can be in more places at more times, so law of averages says that you should hit jackpot at some point. However, sods law says you won't...
     
  5. fastplant

    fastplant

    Sep 26, 2002
    Connecticut
    Listen to your parents, stay in school. You can go far even if you're still in school.
     
  6. Bryan R. Tyler

    Bryan R. Tyler TalkBass: Usurping My Practice Time Since 2002 Staff Member Administrator Gold Supporting Member

    May 3, 2002
    Connecticut
    Probably not good. I doublt many groups would want to hire a musician who is still high school-aged, whether they're in school or not. Not just because they're probably too young for the responsibilites of the band, but because they couldn't get gigs in 21+ clubs. Since gigging doesn't often pay the bills even for successful musicans, the drop-out would be worse off than most trying to find a part-time job with no diploma.
     
  7. sloppysubs

    sloppysubs

    Nov 24, 2002
    Swansboro, NC
    oh im in school. college acutally. im just getting a general consensus.


    my parents are very against music of any kind. the believe that studying it even for a genuine degree is a waste of time money and life. however, they are very selfish and what you money call money grubbing low lifes. so that would put an entirely different spin on things. so i cant listen to them under general principle.
     
  8. fastplant

    fastplant

    Sep 26, 2002
    Connecticut

    My parents were both musicians, played in bands, and they still wouldn't allow me to get a music degree or quit school for music, and this is AFTER my band got some label recognition. I now agree with them. Unless you know you can get a good job teaching, I'd say do music as a side. The problem is that EVERYONE that plays music wants to become a star. And to do that they figure they must quit school. So now you have millions of kids vying for the same goal. It becomes increasingly hard to get that one in a million shot. Honestly, you have the same odds staying in school to go far as you do leaving school. In LA alone there are a million bands. Keep that in mind.
     
  9. Craig Garfinkel

    Craig Garfinkel

    Aug 25, 2000
    Hartford, CT
    Endorsing Artist: Sadowsky Guitars
    Nice. Have they used some of that money they "grubbed", say, supporting you since birth and paying for your education?

    :rolleyes:

    Oh by all means, quit school. Move to NY or LA, because actually there's a shortage of bass players hoping to "make it". And don't worry whether or not you have any actual ability . As long as you're not a money grubbing low life like dear old Mom and Dad, you'll be a star in no time!
     
  10. fastplant

    fastplant

    Sep 26, 2002
    Connecticut
    The thing is, that every one of us at some point has been in your shoes. You know more than your parents about life and you know you can make it but you need to quit school first. Well, I can tell you that I'm very happy my parents made me stick it out. Once I had a taste of how the music world works I knew that I had .00000001% chance of making it if I did go for it. And this is regardless of talent level.
     
  11. sloppysubs

    sloppysubs

    Nov 24, 2002
    Swansboro, NC
    im guessing that is a sort of cruel sarcasm. cause i was being serious. and no they havent helped pay for my education. and ive lived with my grandmother ever since i was born. my folks live 2 miles down the road.

    i dont plan on quitting school at all. im goign to school for business. music businessa actually and then if i feel like it after that im goign back for music tech. so yall dont got to worry bout me dropping out. im just asking a simple question.
     
  12. fastplant

    fastplant

    Sep 26, 2002
    Connecticut

    In that case, chances are little to none.
     
  13. Joe P

    Joe P

    Jul 15, 2004
    Milwaukee, WI
    Yup. That didn't sound very good, Zonboy.

    I don't do 'smileys', but I am rolling my eyes, and sort of also doing the 'nono'-thing. If your folks found out what you said, your Ma would post the 'crying' one, and your Pa... Oh - I don't see a 'punch-you-in-the-head-and-disinherit-you' smiley.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    back to the topic: Chances are nearly nil, Man. There are many, many astounding-good musicians playing coffee houses, farmer's markets and taverns, or teaching school band and choir classes all across this great land of opportunity - many fewer now that people can't seem to appreciate any net benifit of live musicians over D.J.s, and because all the mega-radio-stations have deals with the mega record companies as to what songs they'll play.

    I remember some serious words of wisdom that I learned about the big-time Nashville scene from my old boss Ed Porter of the E.W Porter Jr. band - supported himself with music all his life - He said "Extreme talent is helpful". ...and that's about it, Man.

    Joe
     
  14. Craig Garfinkel

    Craig Garfinkel

    Aug 25, 2000
    Hartford, CT
    Endorsing Artist: Sadowsky Guitars
    I am so sorry, zongeek. :oops:

    I lept to a conclusion and made an ass of myself in the process. I am blessed with very caring and supportive parents (I'm 44 and they're still patiently waiting for me to "make it big"), and sometimes I forget that I'm not necessarily in the majority on that account.

    Staying in school is a wise decision. Studying music business is an excellent choice as well. In the real world, it matters little what your degree is in, just that you have one. Might it be possible for you to transfer to a major music city? That way you can stay in school and position yourself to be in the right place at the right time with the right skills.

    Again, my apologies to you (having a bad day, but that's no excuse). :oops: :oops:
     
  15. sloppysubs

    sloppysubs

    Nov 24, 2002
    Swansboro, NC
    no sweat. thanks for the input guys. i had planned to stay in school anyway. just considereing more exciting alternatives.
     
  16. Eric Moesle

    Eric Moesle Supporting Member

    Sep 21, 2001
    Columbus OH
    Your first post specifically mentioned "drop out of school", and now after people have slammed you a bit, you recanted?
     
  17. Wrong Robot

    Wrong Robot Guest

    Apr 8, 2002
    I'm curious as to this statement, While I don't doubt that there are tons of bands in LA, the population of LA is only 3 million, and broken down there are probably only about 2 million people who would be more likely to be in a band, and if your average band size is 4 people. already you have an impossible number. Of course, that's discounting the LA county population which is closer to 10 million, but some areas of LA county are fairly far from other areas, making bands between them difficult and diminished. Additionally, the amount of purely recreational bands is probably equal to or greater than the amount of truly dedicated and serious bands. On top of all that, There is likely an absurdly high number of bands that no longer play together, or don't gig barely at all, or are only made up of 1 person, and aren't necessarily a threat to anyone else's gigs.

    1 million bands, it's definitely possible, but I see it as highly unlikely. Though, if you have a source for that number, I'd be interested to read it.

    As for the question at hand. I'm going to music school, along with 4000 other students who probably all have dreams of going somewhere with music. You'd be surprised how many kids there are here who really aren't musicians... at all. They might claim that 'music is life' or whatever, but they inevitably end up wasting more time on worthless crap than on music. I should know, I'm slowly becoming one of them. :( Well, The only thing I have going for me is that I don't have my sights set to high, I don't ask from much at all from life, just a little comfort, and I think that modesty is the key to my happiness, regardless as to whether this whole music thing pans out anyway.

    I would definitely stay in school though, if nothing else, it will enable you to realize what you want to do, whilst making some use of your time.(nothing worse than not knowing what to do while you are wasting your time doing nothing)
     
  18. i had similar thoughts when I was around 17-19. I looked around then and thought,

    "well, I might make it, but chances are I'll find myself 20 yrs later, in the same position. I'd still be living in a crappy apartment just barely scraping by. OR..I could get a good education and a good career and then have more freedom to play music on my own terms."

    I did the latter and do not regret it. I had the "bug" to be rich and famous back then, but it went away very quickly. Sometimes I wonder if I would have "made it", but then I look around and realize "I did make it!".

    Ask yourself what you really want. Where do you want to be in 10 yrs? 20 yrs? Then do what's necessary to achieve that. I doubt quiting school would be the first step to answering any of those questions.
     
  19. Craig Garfinkel

    Craig Garfinkel

    Aug 25, 2000
    Hartford, CT
    Endorsing Artist: Sadowsky Guitars
    Sounds like Berklee hasn't changed much. ;)
     
  20. sloppysubs

    sloppysubs

    Nov 24, 2002
    Swansboro, NC
    yoru absolutely right, but i never said me specifically. ive never had the intention of dropping out of school, just chaning the focus of school a little bit is all.

    but long and short, thanks for everyones input. good to have other opinions.