40 years later...won't 2014 MIAs be worth thousands?

[MovingPitchers]

So here's what I've been wondering. For example:

Someone buys a Fender in 1974 for say, $250 at a pawn shop or whatever. Forty years later, that exact bass is now worth like $3000 or more, even.

Using that logic, a 2014 American Fender, bought in 2014 (well duh) for $2000, should be worth even MORE inn 2054, right?

Or am I missing something crucial about Fender's history here? Are the authentic 70s and 60s basses more valuable now because they weren't as mass produced as modern Fenders are nowadays?

People told me that if I ever owned an American Fender, sell everything else and keep that MIA because its value will only go up unless you tinker or damage it. While I kinda believe that, I still remain skeptical of it because these are now mass produced....

 

[Fun Size Nick]

I think it's just about impossible to know what stuff like this will be worth, as it mostly comes down to what it's worth to a collector rather than to a player. Rarity is certainly a part of it, especially for the '50s and '60s instruments that there were just less of to begin with and even fewer around now. Who knows what will be popular to collectors in 40 years' time? As plenty of older TB members will tell you, '70s Fenders weren't too highly regarded in the '70s and no-one thought that they would be worth big money in the future.

 

[BioWeapon]

Collectibility depends on the number of basses produced.
Say 1000 1950 Pbasses were produced, and only 300 survive the years. Theyll be worth a loooot.
Say 100,000 2010 MIA pbasses and the same percentage sirvive, so 30, 000. They won't be worth as much because they're much more available.

If you own a Carl Thompson, Fodera, Jerzy D., Ritter, etc. High end custom then in 50 years it could be worth massive sums.

There's more than that too!
Anything that makes it worth more today will make it worth more tomorrow, like originality and rarer options like uncommon but desired colors.

Disclaimer: I'm by no means a collectibles expert.

 

[Mudfuzz]

or the world could fall into chaos and electric instruments lose all value… you never know… future hasn't happened yet and stuff.

 

[ozzyismetal]

I still think 2008s will be in demand in a few decades, being the year that Fender drastically revamped its MIA line for the better. Wish I bought one at the time.

 

[MovingPitchers]

QC apparently declined with Fender over the years: 1970s saw excellent QC and some extra care and love put into their instruments even though they probably were also mass produced to an extent, but nowadays you can find duds even in high end instruments.

Saying that, will Custom Shop models be worth even more BECAUSE they were handbuilt by master builders who took the time to add all the specs and details?

 

[mikeswals]

First off, the earlier instruments will always be worth more than the newer ones, even when those newer models are old. Ontop of that, there are far-far-far more being built today than back then, so the law of supply and demand will be less even down the road...the used market will be more saturated.

 

[anavar]

the reason why they wont be worth anything is because of this. the 50s/60's/70's it was hard to built a decent instrument, thats why the few good examples of vintange fender models are worth so much.

in 2014 there is no inovation, no struggle, no "hardwork" that goes into building a new instrument. Vintage basses are special because for given the technology they had, they actually somehow build a worthy bass.

kind of like when Chuck Yeager first broke the sound barrier, it was impressive and worth remembering because they pretty much did it in a reinforced coke can held together with cable ties and freedom. Now days f21 super hornets break the sounds barrier all the time...no one cares.

 

[Baird6869]

Mutual funds and stocks will greatly outperform bass value increases over 40 years. Maybe there are a few exceptions, but likely not many. Guitars like MIA Fenders will go up on the used market, but mainly due to inflation and cost increases on newer models.

I own very expensive gear and I really just want to avoid losing money when I sell. I didn't buy gear as an investment. If I do hundreds of paid gigs and sell one of my 70's Fender or a Fodera in the years to come and I break even or make a few bucks, I will be happy.

Wal is a great example of what could happen to boutiques in the next 30-40 years. A 25-30 year Wal is amazingly desirable and will go used for $4500-5000 on average. New they weren't much less. Not a great investment if you bought one in 1985 and sold it today almost 30 years later. Steinberger and Kubricki are also good examples. Super desirable but not selling for much more than you would have paid new 25-30 years ago.

IMO, pre-CBS Fenders are currently the most desired/valuable basses and I expect the same to be true in 40 years.

 

[metron]

No I don't believe current Fender offerings will ever appreciate that much in value.

 

[-Asdfgh-]

QC apparently declined with Fender over the years: 1970s saw excellent QC

10 years ago the meme was that quality fell off as soon as CBS took over and that the best thing about having two 1970s Fender basses as opposed to one is that the fire would burn twice as long

 

[-Asdfgh-]

Maybe in 2054 you will be able to go to a replicator and say "Tea, earl grey, hot and while you are at it a bass, Fender, Precision, 2008"

Maybe in 2055 they will fix the natural language interface.

 

[chuck norriss]

inflation is 2.5% / year

 

[Pajama_Bottoms]

I believe that much of the pricing spike in vintage 60s and 70s instruments was due to baby boomers buying up the "dream" instrument that they had always wanted in their youth.

 

[M.R. Ogle]

10 years ago the meme was that quality fell off as soon as CBS took over and that the best thing about having two 1970s Fender basses as opposed to one is that the fire would burn twice as long

...Yeah, but only AFTER the poly-glop finish melted off.

 

[tangentmusic]

Yeah... in 2054 I'll probably be the guy that sells my Vintage '14 P-Bass for $78.99.
I'll be senile at that point.. I'll need the money for a box of Depends..

 

[warrplayer]

There are a ton more people playing and a ton more instruments being made, so you are just going to have to wait a lot longer or hope the bass playing population continues to increase at its current rate.

When I lived in England in the 70s some friends collected coins from the roman empire. Expensive hobby? Nope. 2000 years of Roman Empire meant you can basically go anywhere in Europe with a shovel and metal detecter and find you some Roman coinage.

But, two thousand years from now, that MIA Fender might command top yen.

 

[Orpheus55]

When I bought my first Fender in 1970, they--all post CBS Fenders--were regarded much as MIMs were a decade ago. They were considered OK but not "real" to many players. My last MIA Fender was a '76 Precision that I could not get rid of fast enough. I sold it for $290 and considered myself lucky. Since, I've had MIJs pretty much exclusively. Looking ahead, I think these might be regarded as collectible at some point.

 

[bnolsen]

It might be that in 40 years the super otamatone takes over bass duties or maybe the bass vuvuzela or some other unknown fantastic bass instrument. Electric bass would then be about as common as the double bass is today, perhaps even less so since electric bass never took hold in classical music.

 

[Doctor J]

QC apparently declined with Fender over the years: 1970s saw excellent QC and some extra care and love put into their instruments even though they probably were also mass produced to an extent, but nowadays you can find duds even in high end instruments.

Eeeeehhhhhhhhhh..... what? Joke?

Dan Smith, he of legend, said that quality control was essentially non-existent when he joined from Yamaha.