Incoming temperature matters. Especially if you're thinking electric tankless. Unlike a tank, where it can heat the water until it's hot, it's got a fixed amount of power and for any given flow rate it can raise the incoming temperature a set number of degrees. The same is true of gas, but gas tankless tend to have a lot more input power available than electric tankless do. Unless you have a 400A service and practically no real loads on it, think replacement tank heater for electric.I have an electric water heater up in our mountain place. It looks like it might be as old as the building, which went up in ‘82. It works fine but I figure it could go any time, in which case I want to look at tankless since we aren’t always up there.
Which brings me to my question - how much of an issue is groundwater temperature coming into the unit? Our place is at 7400 feet in the Rockies and the water coming out of the tap is butt cold in the winter.
Say you have enough capacity (may not be true) to run a 120A tankless electric. 120A x 240V = 28,800W, or 28.8 KW (typically 3 sets of 40A double-pole breakers, so if you don't have 6 slots free you'll need a new breaker panel to put them in.)
If that ran for an hour, if could heat 98,000 lbs of water one degree F, or 1092 lbs 90 degrees F (butt-cold mountain to nice and hot for a shower) which is about 131 gallons. In a hour. So a flow rate of 2.2 gallons per minute. Perhaps you only need 80 degrees rise, where that would get you to 2.4 gallons per minute. 70 degree rise would get you to 2.8 GPM
If someone washes their hands or the dishes or otherwise uues hot water at the same time while you're in the shower, the flow rate will go up and the temperature will go down as a result.
If you can only support 60A on your service, cut those flow rates in half. Meanwhile your 30A (typical) heater can, by virtue of storage, make water as hot as you like that you can use 30 or 40 or 50 gallons of as fast as you like (after which it needs some time to catch up.)
If you're not always up there, shut the tank off when you leave and turn it on when you arrive (or make your place hackable and turn it on before you arrive.)