I have an AWD SUV with selectable modes for mud, snow, and ice. That said: the forecast is for 5-9 inches of snow starting Saturday evening, then snow/sleet/freezing rain on Sunday. Even with AWD I'm hoping my Saturday gig is canceled, and I'll be hesitant to drive to my brother's house to watch football on Sunday even though he's only 5 miles away.
The phrase around my parts: four wheel drive is not four wheel stop. Regardless, you're correct: the fact is that most drivers grossly overestimate the power of AWD/4WD, getting into more accidents than their 2WD counterparts. The main reason is that poor traction is masked by 4WD capability, causing those drivers to take greater risks out of false confidence.