• TalkBass has been independent since 1998. Add your voice.
    Create a free account to reply to discussions, view embedded media, and browse with fewer display ads.
    Join free Log in
    Want zero display ads or expanded classifieds tools? Compare plans.

Noble flipping?

Rocket Queen

Rocket Queen

Jul 21, 2019
952
1
2,004
Paradise City
#1
So, this is just nothing more than a frivolous thought experiment, inspired by morbid curiosity and recent Classified ads, but...

Suppose, starting tomorrow, I placed an order once a month for a Noble DI for $1279 and a normal build time of 10 months (per the Noble website). Then, when the Nobles started arriving, I immediately flipped them for $2000, given what is apparently the current market, for fanbois who couldn't wait. Would this work? Could I keep it up indefinitely? Is there a fatal flaw that would cause it not to work?

I rush to emphasize that this is all merely idle thinking on my part, I have no plans whatsoever to put this scenario into action, and I sure hope that this post does not violate any TB rules. I'm merely speculating about the current bizarre economics surrounding this particular product.
 
#4
JKos said:
Like any such speculative investment, you run the risk that the market falls out for the Noble. Always something new or existing that could become the next big thing.
Click to expand...

Very true. But even doing it just once amounts to a $720 profit, assuming that the market holds up for 10 months, which I'd bet it will. Maybe that explains a lot of the current ads.

JKos said:
Did you actually do the math in cost of money, losses due to shipping and transaction fees, etc.?
Click to expand...

Nope. This is all very simplistic and just idle speculation, although, even with all the externalities, I'd still suspect that you'd make a profit.
 
#5
I have to wonder if the hype surrounding the Noble (which I think IS a great sounding box) is mostly a TB phenomenon or if it also exists in the outside world. In any event, it’s interesting to behold the sort of peer-generated “I gotta have it” affliction that involves certain products on TB. I guess it’s normal to some extent: many of us are on a seemingly endless quest to improve our sounds and there’s also the hobby aspect of gear for many of us. And if you have the money then I guess why not. But man, $2500 for a Noble (the last price I saw for one in the TB classifieds)? Yikes!
 
  • Like
Reactions: PWolverine, macribas, MisterUbu and 6 others
#7
I thought everyone outside of TB who wanted a Noble got one, and isn't looking for another.
I also thought everyone on TB who wanted one and could actually afford one already had one. Some have even sold theirs and moved on, because TB.

I assume he's mostly catering to the pro musician and studio market now. Do you think he'd set aside those builds for you?
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikewalker and MattZilla
#8
bass12 said:
I have to wonder if the hype surrounding the Noble (which I think IS a great sounding box) is mostly a TB phenomenon or if it also exists in the outside world. In any event, it’s interesting to behold the sort of peer-generated “I gotta have it” affliction that involves certain products on TB. I guess it’s normal to some extent: many of us are on a seemingly endless quest to improve our sounds and there’s also the hobby aspect of gear for many of us. And if you have the money then I guess why not. But man, $2500 for a Noble (the last price I saw for one in the TB classifieds)? Yikes!
Click to expand...

There are definitely studios and pros using them. I even see them in some backline rental lists, but those are Nobles that are already out there - not ones that are on the wait-list. So you could take that for what it is.
The thing is, it's not a particularly magic box. It's just a really nice, hand-built DI. In some studio circles there is still demand for that, or a desire for that, but generally I don't think he ever intended it to be a TB phenomenon.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bass12
#9
Scotty4string said:
The problem is, I think, the Noble is just a piece of gear. It sounds very good without a doubt. However it’s only a matter of time before something else comes out that people perceive as even better and that takes the Noble’s place. It always happens with equipment. The P bass being an exception.
Click to expand...

What you're describing is an arbitrage opportunity.

OK, let's do the math. Assume you pay $1,300 per unit, you sell it for $1,800 after shipping fees, you profit $500, and you do this once a month.

Here's how the cash flows work. You would have shelled out $13,000 by month 10 before you received your first unit. You sell the unit and realize the profit in the subsequent month, so by month 11 you're still out of pocket $12,500. By the time you hit 1 year, you're in the hole $12,000. Then you rinse/wash/repeat month after month until you finally break even.... at month 36.

So, this would be a losing strategy for the first 3 years, and you would finally be in the black $500 by month 37. Woo hoo!

And this is assuming Jack Roan didn't raise his prices and you could continue selling each unit each month for a $500 profit.

Then, as others have said, there's the substitution factor. Would other devices come along to make the Noble less attractive?

Then there's the idea that you might saturate the market and have to drop your price to move the inventory that you receive each month.

Then, there's the attention you would attract from the Noble-buying community that would peg you as "The Noble Flipper" which some may find capitalistically distasteful and choose to not buy from you out of principle.

So, could you make it work? I suppose you could for a while if you had enough cash flow. But you wouldn't make a killing for a while. You wouldn't even make enough to buy your own Noble until you're 39 months into the experiment (when your total profits have hit $1,500).

A more profitable strategy (on paper, at least) would be to buy 3 Nobles at a time ($3,900 total cost // $5,400 revenue // $1,500 profit) so you start making money in month 11. But if you tried to move that kind of volume you would need 3x the investment in the first year and you would further run the risk of saturating the market.

If you really wanted to maximize your investment return, you might want to spend the money to design and launch your own proprietary Noble-slaying device. Higher risk, for sure, but also much higher potential return. You just know there are some preamp manufacturers who are seeing the kind of premium Noble commands and they are working hard to create their own version of the preamp. That's just how the Darwinian laws of capitalism work.

Fun thought experiment!
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: sporad, Bassgeer, socknroll1 and 40 others
#10
I've been suspecting for a while that most of the people on the Noble and Wal waitlists are purely in it for the arbitrage. They either sell their places in line for a profit once they're near the date of having the thing (Noble) or having to finalize their customization choices (Wal), or they sell the end product for a profit immediately after receiving it.

If it wasn't for the speculators the original prices of both would be lower. Both companies raised their prices because obviously the customers were willing to pay more and that money is better off in the makers' pockets than the speculators.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ColdEye, Obese Chess, Rocket Queen and 1 other person
#12
T-boneParish said:
What you're describing is an arbitrage opportunity.

OK, let's do the math. Assume you pay $1,300 per unit, sell it for $1,800 after shipping fees, profit $500, and you do this once a month.

Here's how the cash flows work. You would have shelled out $13,000 by month 10 before you received your first unit. You sell the unit and realize the profit in the subsequent month, so by month 11 you're still out of pocket $12,500. By the time you hit 1 year, you're in the hole $12,000. Then you rinse/wash/repeat month after month until you finally break even.... at month 36.

So, this would be a losing strategy for the first 3 years, and you would finally be in the black $500 by month 37. Woo hoo!

And this is assuming Jack Roan didn't raise his prices and you could continue selling each unit each month for a $500 profit.

Then, as others have said, there's the substitution factor. Would other devices come along to make the Noble less attractive?

Then there's the idea that you might saturate the market and have to drop your price to move the inventory that you receive each month.

Then, there's the attention you would attract from the Noble-buying community that would peg you as "The Noble Flipper" which some may find capitalistically distasteful and choose to not buy from you out of principle.

So, could you make it work? I suppose you could for a while if you had enough cash flow. But you wouldn't make a killing for a while. You wouldn't even make enough to buy your own Noble until you're 39 months into the experiment (when your total profits have hit $1,500).

A more profitable strategy (on paper, at least) would be to buy 3 Nobles at a time ($3,900 total cost // $5,400 revenue // $1,500 profit) so you start making money in month 11. But if you tried to move that kind of volume you would need 3x the investment in the first year and you would further run the risk of saturating the market.

If you really wanted to maximize your investment return, you might want to spend the money to design and launch your own proprietary Noble-slaying device. Higher risk, for sure, but also much higher potential return. You just know some preamp manufacturers are seeing the kind of premium Noble commands and they are working hard to create their own version of the preamp. That's just how the Darwinian laws of capitalism work.

Fun thought experiment!
Click to expand...
Thank you for doing this math. I was about to sit down and do it myself. Now I can get on with my day. :thumbsup:
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikewalker, MattZilla, porterbass and 1 other person
#16
If you had that kind of money to invest, you might do better to buy 10 units, store them unused until Nobel ceases production or changes the product in some significant way, and then sell them as rare NOS discontinued unobtanium.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor nor is this post intended as financial advice. Please consult your attorney, financier or parole officer before making any stupid investments based on something you read on the internet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: socknroll1, mikewalker, B-Lo and 4 others
#17
They’re great preamps. But the “fresh stock” of bass players willing and able to dish out that excessive amount-over-cost is finite and certainly a year out the demand will be shifted to another flavor.

FWIW I’m a bit of a pedal fiend (bass and guitar) and if I buy a pedal and don’t love it I list it on Reverb for $1-150 over list. More if it’s somewhat in demand. I’ve done it in repeats too, having bought and sold several Protein pedals to pay for the one I kept for example and a couple KoT closer to 5X.
So I am NOT taking you out of it.
But I’m telling you by the time you get a Noble that you order Today it will not be worth $2,000.
What you’re proposing is getting in on the caboose of a trend. And given the already finite market for bass preamps it’s a very, very brief opportunity.
If you want to do this, find the “next” Noble.

Good luck.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mikewalker

Latest posts

Top Bottom
Back