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Statistics question

Haha, have fun with that. :p

My undergraduate training was in psychology, so I was raised on a steady diet of ANOVA, t-tests, chi-squares, and correlations, with the occasional OLS or logistical regression thrown in. My doctoral training has a heavy sociological and program evaluation slant to it, which means way more regression in order to get statistical control. But I like to say that you can take the psychologist out of psychology, but you can't take the psychology out of the psychologist.* The lenghts I'll go to design true experiments is almost comical due to my obsession with internal validity. :D

*I realize that makes absolutely no sense, but I thought it sounded cool.

Yeah I already did the anova, t-test, chi-squares, tau-b, tau-c, correlations, and introductory regressions. The joy.

I really only care about positive political science, so the better I get with stats, the better I will be in my field. Also, people with interest in quantitative research are way more rare than say political philosophy. The rarity factor is what landed me my current job as a research assistant. If I get better, I get rarer :D This is all extra-curricular stuff, the stat classes were pretty basic.

I should also get better at writing in English.

edit: I'm using SPSS at the moment, but I will learn my way around STATA soon. SAS, well... I'd just have no idea where to start.
 
I really only care about positive political science, so the better I get with stats, the better I will be in my field.

True, but don't make the mistake that quantitative automatically = positivism. You can still conduct qualitative research, such as content analysis and grounded theory and still be working from a postivist/postpositivist ontology.

Even a lot of critical theory has a positivist slant, since many of its assumptions are based on defined notions of "good" and "bad."
 
True. What I'm doing for work at the moment mixes qualitative and quantitative. It's called the Comparative Manifesto Project, basically an analysis of electoral platform across 55 countries. We work on the Canadian elections. I sort paragraphs into categories (content analysis) so it can then be analyzed by quantitative means.
 
I haven't done badass stats since grad school many eons of years ago, but isn't this graph going to be "bi-modal"? I apologize if I'm not making sense - as I said, my memory is shot from too many smoky bars and deaf drummers and it's been decades since I learned in statistics that "the average person is made up of one boob and one ball".

Seriously, you're not from Waterloo are you? I was nursing a large tumbler of coffee early this morning to get the alcohol out of my system at the McDonalds behind my place when I overheard a group of Waterloo engineering nerds discussing something along those lines. I had a blast watching a group of drunk female students close by looking dazed as the stuff those nerds were discussing just fly over their tipsy heads.
 
I haven't done badass stats since grad school many eons of years ago, but isn't this graph going to be "bi-modal"? I apologize if I'm not making sense - as I said, my memory is shot from too many smoky bars and deaf drummers and it's been decades since I learned in statistics that "the average person is made up of one boob and one ball".

Seriously, you're not from Waterloo are you? I was nursing a large tumbler of coffee early this morning to get the alcohol out of my system at the McDonalds behind my place when I overheard a group of Waterloo engineering nerds discussing something along those lines. I had a blast watching a group of drunk female students close by looking dazed as the stuff those nerds were discussing just fly over their tipsy heads.

No cigar. Only one mode/peak. ;)

I have a friend who is a math genius studying in waterloo but I have never even been there.
 
+1 in that you are a bit confused here. What you are talking about is the confidence intervals around a dichotomous outcome variable (voted for or not, at least in most presidential elections... technically the 'difference between two proportions, but just trying to keep it simple). So, it is a sampling precision issue. The reason it is so hard to predict the winner of an election these days is that the confidence interval (sampling precision in predicting the performance of the population) is widest (maximum variance) at 50%. Since most elections are decided these days within a percent or two off of the 'tie' (50%), it is very difficult to do multiple polls with a sampling error of less than +/- 2%, much less 1% (i.e., to move from the typical +/- 3% used in most polling, requiring, in general a sample size of approximately 1,000 when the target voting difference is centered close to 50%, would result in having to double or even triple the sample size).

When you add in the design effect (i.e., when oversampling key subgroups, the precision of the total sample actually goes down), things get even more difficult to predict a close race between two or three candidates.

Of course, when you roll in the fact that it is very difficult to obtain a conceptually representative sample of 'voters' (i.e., on-line, phone, etc. that are all sampling frames that have their biases of missing key demographics, and even defining the population of voters is difficult... registered to vote? planning to vote? voted last election?), you get into a real mess.

One way that increases the predictive ability of polling is to do a 'meta analysis', called a poll of polls, which uses the poll itself as an 'individual in a sample of polls' and uses the variability among polls to determe the true 'variance' of the polling data.
 
Gaussian distributions are definitely not the same in natural sciences, if I recall correctly most stats book I've checked introduce the notion with examples taken from nat.sci. then it gets a bit fishy with lines like "while it's not as perfect in social science, it generally works pretty okay" :p

The funny thing is that statistics isn't really taught in the physical sciences. I took one year of stats as a math major, and the focus was on proving the theorems. My roommate in grad school was a psych student, and I remember that he was endlessly taking stats courses and battling with SPSS.

Of course in physics, we tend to have the luxury of arranging our experiments deliberately so that we can rely on relatively simplistic statistical analysis.
 
Of course in physics, we tend to have the luxury of arranging our experiments deliberately so that we can rely on relatively simplistic statistical analysis.

I always wondered how much statistics were emphasized in the physical sciences.

In the stats world, psych stats are still a bit on the simplistic side, albeit, not as simplistic as like percentages or just reporting measures of central tendency. But true experiment is still the gold standard that psychologists strive for, since psych is the social science that most attempts to mimic the physical sciences as closely as possible in its methodology. That's not to say everything can be controlled. Alpha levels for rejecting the null hypothesis are still relatively broad (usually .05) as compared to medical research, for example. Obviously, people are complicated and you can't account for everything that they are going to do or think.

Quantitative sociology starts getting a lot more complicated, since quasi-experiments are much more prevalent. Regression is used in psychology but to nowhere near the extent that it's used in sociology. ANOVAs and t-tests are pretty easy to understand compared to the seemingly bazillion types of regression that are out there. Economics can get really crazy with the predictive calculus models that fill journals. I can generally understand them, but I have to read them REALLY slowly to do so.

he was endlessly taking stats courses and battling with SPSS

I find that SPSS is great for doing basic statistical work, but I always found it clunky when you need to start doing things like transforming variables, regression criticism, doing procedures that aren't built into SPSS's statistical analyses, etc. Systat, which is actually where SPSS got its user interface from, always seemed a lot smoother to me.
 
I always wondered how much statistics were emphasized in the physical sciences.

In the stats world, psych stats are still a bit on the simplistic side, albeit, not as simplistic as like percentages or just reporting measures of central tendency. But true experiment is still the gold standard that psychologists strive for, since psych is the social science that most attempts to mimic the physical sciences as closely as possible in its methodology. That's not to say everything can be controlled. Alpha levels for rejecting the null hypothesis are still relatively broad (usually .05) as compared to medical research, for example. Obviously, people are complicated and you can't account for everything that they are going to do or think.

Quantitative sociology starts getting a lot more complicated, since quasi-experiments are much more prevalent. Regression is used in psychology but to nowhere near the extent that it's used in sociology. ANOVAs and t-tests are pretty easy to understand compared to the seemingly bazillion types of regression that are out there. Economics can get really crazy with the predictive calculus models that fill journals. I can generally understand them, but I have to read them REALLY slowly to do so.



I find that SPSS is great for doing basic statistical work, but I always found it clunky when you need to start doing things like transforming variables, regression criticism, doing procedures that aren't built into SPSS's statistical analyses, etc. Systat, which is actually where SPSS got its user interface from, always seemed a lot smoother to me.

'Quantitative Sociology' LOL!

Actually, the psychometrics programs in Psychology departments are at the vanguard of what is going on with experimental design (especially 'real world' quasi-experimental design) and also multivariate statistics. Many sociology departments have been discontinued at quite a few universities. Some programs have kind of sputtered back to life by shifting to the more advanced qualitative training involved in 'marketing ethnography' and other tools that attempt to use classical sociological observation techniques in the market place. Pretty cool actually... kind of like 'living among the lowland gorillas' sort of approach to research. (edit: I have recently completed some projects with these types of sociology-based qualitative research firms, linking time-stamped hard purchase data to coded ethnographic data/behaviors based on direct observations, often camera's set up in grocery aisles. Interesting stuff).

Also, those who don't work with large data sets underestimate the data management part of stats programs. A little program like Systat is fine for the graduate student doing a few regression analyses or whatever. For those of us who work in the data mining field, SAS is still the big dog, since it has massive production capabilities (i.e., macro's and an entire programmable matrix algebra language that is very easy to use). When you are dealing with millions of observations and thousands of variables, you get into a different world on this.

SPSS has most of the market share in the Market Research world, since it is a decent data management package, and has a powerful set of statistical routines, and also because you can disable that simplistic 'point and click' user interface and somewhat mimic SAS's programming power (and SPSS is a LOT cheaper).

Also, having done a post doc in a medical school, +1 that clinical trials for medication/treatments have even more rigid requirements for reducing Type I error, since there is SO much risk.

Finally, to FDeck's comment, for the most part, I try to steer those considering statistics as a career (there is a HUGE demand for applied statisticians who also can do advanced data base management) away from programs in math departments. I always tell them 'for the most part, we can assume Fisher got the F tables right'.! Of course, if you want to break new ground as a theorist, that makes sense, but the real world is looking for statisticians with a good sense of experimental design (especially quasi-experimental design for 'real world experiments'), and good handle on advanced data management (i.e. dealing with massive data sets), and a good tool-box of useful techniques for market research, fraud detection, etc. (i.e., advanced regression, cluster analysis/LCA, perceptual mapping, mixed model ANOVA, multi-level modeling, etc., etc.).

Anyway, funny to talk about this on a bass website, but since it is a statistics thread, kind of fun for me. I started my own applied statistical consulting firm almost 20 years ago after leaving the market research world on the client side, (and academic biostatistics before that) and it has been wonderful. I mainly work with marketing departments, and specialize in real world experimental design (e.g., matched store product tests, advertising test markets, etc.), advanced survey data analysis (conjoint designs for new product optimization, segmentation analyses for consumer targeting, customer and employee satisfaction modeling, etc., etc.).

It has been a great ride, and the field is growing like CRAZY if you have the applied statistical skills combined with some sort of business background, like a Marketing degree, for example.

Whew... OK, up early before starting the work day. Most will find this 'blah, blah, blah', but if anyone is considering a career in this area, feel free to PM me if you have questions.


Edit: Econometrics, as you point out, is another totally different thing. I call it the 'make up for limited data with complixity of analysis' area of statistics!
 
Oh man.. just hearing the letters SPSS together again brings me out in a rash. Participant observation studies for me everytime. I don't trust statistics like i don't trust specifications. Too much social policy is based on biased statistics and too many specs based on variables too vague for the average maths no hoper like me to judge with any confidence. If more politicians got to really know the people they are screwing then they might have more empathy than they clearly have by seeing them as numbers. I am not a number . I am a free man lol. Why not just wait and see and use your clearly inquisitive brain for something more worthwhile like playing music? Statistically my opinion may be worthless tho as I'm probably in the minority lol.
 
Oh man.. just hearing the letters SPSS together again brings me out in a rash. Participant observation studies for me everytime. I don't trust statistics like i don't trust specifications. Too much social policy is based on biased statistics and too many specs based on variables too vague for the average maths no hoper like me to judge with any confidence. If more politicians got to really know the people they are screwing then they might have more empathy than they clearly have by seeing them as numbers. I am not a number . I am a free man lol. Why not just wait and see and use your clearly inquisitive brain for something more worthwhile like playing music? Statistically my opinion may be worthless tho as I'm probably in the minority lol.

I always joke that the best thing that happened to me was to enter a field that most find painful and confusing:p Interestingly, I find it incredibly artistic, and quite similar to my music career and experiences. Yes, there is 'bad analysis' out there just like bad music, and I agree with you that the massive pressure on faculty at major universities to publish has resulted in many awful, misleading findings that make it into the news (the nutrition field is the main offender on this one). These faculty members are under so much pressure to publish that they need to milk dozens of papers out of a major grant, even though the experimental design of the funded study usually involves only a few outcomes. However, they cram the surveys with a zillion other questions, and out pop the significant correlations and regression models (often spurious... called comparisonwise error.. the 'put a monkey in front of a keyboard and he will eventually type a word' thing) that are then 'interpreted after the fact' as representing 'experimental findings'.

So, +1, like in many fields, some pretty bad practices going on at the moment.
 
If quantative sociology is statistically on the decline in universities then we need more than just the statistical fact that it's happening. We need to know why. We could just prepare a survey for the universities but that's a whole new can of worms. How can we be sure we are getting the truth? Does the sponser of the study have a political or economic vested interest or axe to grind? I'm sure some people would be happy if the only sociology was positivist in nature as that would leave the field wide open for those who want to sell a 'truth' without any one to challenge them. Maths can 'prove' anything except the truth. Great for making physical things like buildings or basses but it's yet to be used to build anything 'perfect'. Though I'm sure many marketing people would have us believe otherwise even if they know it not to be true. I remember a professor asking us wether any of us were considering going into research. He warned us that the only people who pay are those that want the research to support their idea or product. Truth is a scarce commodity and some would say a pointless and ephemeral goal. Oh, and wasn't it positivist psychology that gave us frontal lobotomy, Prozac, electro therapy and other best forgotten social experiments?
 
If quantative sociology is statistically on the decline in universities then we need more than just the statistical fact that it's happening. We need to know why. We could just prepare a survey for the universities but that's a whole new can of worms. How can we be sure we are getting the truth? Does the sponser of the study have a political or economic vested interest or axe to grind? I'm sure some people would be happy if the only sociology was positivist in nature as that would leave the field wide open for those who want to sell a 'truth' without any one to challenge them. Maths can 'prove' anything except the truth. Great for making physical things like buildings or basses but it's yet to be used to build anything 'perfect'. Though I'm sure many marketing people would have us believe otherwise even if they know it not to be true. I remember a professor asking us wether any of us were considering going into research. He warned us that the only people who pay are those that want the research to support their idea or product. Truth is a scarce commodity and some would say a pointless and ephemeral goal. Oh, and wasn't it positivist psychology that gave us frontal lobotomy, Prozac, electro therapy and other best forgotten social experiments?

Well, if you think all science is bad and that all scientists are 'on the take' then we really can't have a discussion. In my work (kind of my 'giving back') with the NIH and CDC, I see mostly solid research and 'the best intentions' to provide support to help people in trouble. I feel very good about that. I also see my corporate clients using research to, of course, make more money, but primarily through providing better products at cheaper costs for the consumer. Of course, there is 'push polling' in politics, and research done by companies to be used to side step regulation, etc., etc. That is the way the world works, with lots of good, and some bad in every field.

The good news for me is that philosophy departments are dropping even faster than sociology departments:p
 
I am quite sure your work is valid and honest in intent and didn't say all science or maths was bad but your last comment is contentious and alarming. The first thing any dictator does is try to get rid of the intellectuals. is that what you wish for? The artists and musicians would be next... talkbass anyone?
 
I am quite sure your work is valid and honest in intent and didn't say all science or maths was bad but your last comment is contentious and alarming. The first thing any dictator does is try to get rid of the intellectuals. is that what you wish for? The artists and musicians would be next... talkbass anyone?

:p I don't separate intellectuals from science/scientists in any way. My last comment, while true, was meant as a joke:)

Also, just to clarify, don't confuse experimental psychology with clinical psychology. Two very different things. The psychometric sub-specialty of experimental psychology is a field that attempts to make the measurement of human behavior, opions and beliefs as accurate as possible, and is almost a 'pure science discipline' (i.e., the primary emphasis is on methodology).

Clinical Psychology (another field that is in steep decline due to changes/extreme limits in insurance payments for services provided by clinical psychologists) is more about directly helping people with mental difficulties or disease. Of course, your example of 'lobotomy', etc. came out of the field of medical psychiatry, which is yet another very different thing.
 
Imho. philosophy always belonged in the letters department, not social science or humanities.

Buy you're being a bit harsh on quantitative sociology, there's still some pretty cool and valid stuff getting done :p

I sense a lot of statistics in my future :D
 
I wish to apologise to Kjung and any one who is genuinely trying to make the world a better place. I made an attack on psychology generally as a science which sometimes presents itself as superior to sociology which often is under pressure to prove itself as a legitimate science due to popular perception of it as a bit too flakey. This applies especially to pure sociology with its potentially too subjective 'participant' observation techniques. Obviously generalisations from any perspective or discipline are problematic as are extreme positions such as I most likely am guilty of. Such views are important though to maintain a balance somewhere in the middle. I am merely trying to encourage debate so that people who havn't had the luxury of a university education may start to challenge the so called facts often presented by those who intend to decieve them into voting a particular way or buying a product that may not be all it's cracked up to be. As you already agreed that plenty of that goes on Kjung, I am sure we are singing from the same sheet. Philosophy probably does belong in letters but it is also an essential part of sociology and politics. I think a degree of suspicion and cynicism is healthy particularly when dealing with statistics if only because it is too easy to take them at face value and not ask why or who did the research.Science has improved our world in many ways but it sometimes comes at a price. Only a fool believes everything they read.
 

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