Not disagreeing with anything or anyone here, just saying there are so many factors that make a better or a lesser solid investment than another.
For ex, if you offer your Warwick for a direct trade with a Fodera, which they both costed exactly 6000 USD brand new, the person with the Fodera will likely ignore or laugh at your trade offer.. there are so many reasons behind such things. Even if that Fodera person wanted that Warwick, it would only makes sense if the Warwick person adds cash over the trade, and probably lots of it.
Look at how a brand new Tesla Model S devalues on resale versus a brand new BMW 7 series. The first one drops about 20-30% value in about one year, the other one drops at least 50%!
Reason? I don't really know, but I assume one thing, if you wanted a Tesla, that's your only option, but if you wanted a BMW, you have so many other options, 5 series, 3 series new, so many used 7 series or X6s, that can be just as good for half the price..
It looks like supply and demand and starting price. There is a little bit of MSRP versus actual retail price too. I'm just using these three as examples...Fodera, Warwick, Fender.
A new Fodera Monarch Standard is going to set you back around $5,050 at
Sweetwater. A Fodera Monarch Select is up at $7,250. The price goes way up on Custom Shop orders. Build time on custom shop orders is estimated at 10 months.
A Warwick Thumb GPS will cost $2,400 at Reverb from multiple sellers. I bought a brand new Warwick Thumb Masterbuilt two years ago for $3,800. Custom shop orders can probably go up equally high with Fodera. Build time on custom orders is 3 to 4 months.
Fender Precision Standard will cost around $750. American player is $1200 and the Elite is around $1800. The custom shop is around $3500 for most orders and takes 6 to 8 months.
Fender sells by far the most at every one of those categories and so the used market is much bigger as is demand. Warwick sells the next amount and has a decent number of used instruments--especially Corvettes and Thumbs. Fodera sells the fewest instruments and the used market is much smaller. On Talkbass there are 31 pages of used Foderas, 63 pages of used Warwicks, and 63 pages of used Fenders. On reverb it is 134 Fodera ads, 1800 Warwick ads, 13000 fender ads.
Anyway that is a lot of rambling. Here is new versus used pricing based on quick internet searching:
Fodera Monarch Standard $5000 to $3400 (68%)
Fodera Monarch Select $7250 to can't find one for resale.
Warwick Thumb GPS $2400 to $1500 (63%)
Warwick Thumb Masterbuilt $3800 to $2500 (65%)...though I think $2300 would be a better price at (60%)
Fender Standard MIM $750 to $450 (60%)
Fender American Player $1200 to $900 (75%)
Fender American Elite $1800 to $1300 (72%)
Generally, I find that used gear is around 2/3rd the cost of new gear in today's dollars except American Fender instruments which hold there value better (near 75%) because of high demand and custom shop orders which either sit unsold forever or sell near the cost of the closest used standard model for the reasons you illucidated.
Fodera owners definitely have an advantage because if I want a select monarch my options are new or to get into a bidding war on the first one that comes up used...assuming someone would ever sell it.