Current flow through the tube would rise, and the tube is then a cathode follower when the pin is shorting the plate resistor.
You'd have to move the coupling cap to the cathode side for it to be a cathode follower.
The signal across the cathode resistor is in phase with the stage input, and would be way higher in the fault case than the normal feedback from the OT. Both are good candidates for an oscillation condition.
Yeah - any in phase signal getting injected into that gain stage is likely to induce oscillation.
Good call on the point contact behavior.
Yeah, I've seen that whole "poor contact makes a diode" thing a few times before.