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Beginner Financial Investing.

Discussion in 'Off Topic [BG]' started by MCBTunes, Sep 26, 2005.

  1. I'm 18, I have a little cash I'd like to invest. (but seriously, not just GIC's). I'm seriously looking to learn how the stock market works, I'm starting commerce courses in January but thats for a marketing degree.

    I've checked around Morningstar.ca, but where should I start to learn how the market works....

    Also, anyone have any stock tips, feel free to PM me, please :). I was thinking after these disasters it would be good to invest in some lumber, or timbre area's but it's probably alittle late to jump on that bandwagon. Maybe solar/electrical energy would be a good place to start.

    But my goal here is to learn how the market works. The components involved, and how to take advantage of it.
  2. Boplicity

    Boplicity Supporting Member

    There are many excellent books on investing for beginners and investment for young investors. There are also informative books on personal finance. Suzy Orman recently published one for young folks that I think sounds like it would have valuable advice. This book is not just about investing, but covers the broad spectrum of persoanl financial planning--insurance, budgets, 401Ks, employment benefits, buying or renting homes, buying or leasing cars, credit card debt,etc.

    Be careful that if you buy a book on investing that you look at the date of publication and don't get one that was written before the tech "crash" of 2001. Try to get recent books such as 2004 or 2005.

    There are also important magazines that are very helpful. These also have web sites. Smart Money, Fortune, Business, Week, Forbes, and the like. Also there are important newspapers such as the Wall Street Journal and Barron's. They also have web sites.

    There are investment TV shows such as those on FOX on Saturday morning such as "Bulls and Bears" and "Nick Cavuto". You should also get acquainted with CNBC,a financial network that has investment and financial news and opinion all day long.

    You sound sincere and I am delighted you are wanting to learn as much as you can and to get started young. I just wish more young folks had your attitude.

    The question you asked about investing in lumber leads me to wonder if you are more interested in a short term investment strategy, in which you invest, earn a quick profit (hopefully), sell and invest in another quick hot stock. Be aware that this strategy can lead to rapid losses as quickly as it can lead to rapid wealth, plus the costs of rapid turnover of stocks carries high trading costs, too.

    A helpful web site you might enjoy, plus they publish many books, is Motley Fool.

    You have a huge advantage in that you are starting young. Even if you do make a few mistakes, you are young enough to recover and learn from your mistakes. There is no end of learning in the stocks and bonds market. Just when you think you know what is going on, everything seems to change. It is frustrating but always fascinating. I wish you good luck and great fortune. Maybe you'll be the next Warren Buffet.
  3. Thanks for the advice so far guys.

    Josh: I'm gonna check out that coffeehouse investor book, its 20 bucks, no biggie. And I'm going to run down to the book store tomorrow and see what else they have to offer. I'm deffinatly going to PM you too.

    Bop: I like your idea about the magazines, I'll subscribe to one of them, I plan on taking a few low risk stocks but I also want to dabble in one or 2 high risk short term stocks. Like you said, I'm young, I only have a few expenses. So losing a little money here or there for the sake of future knowledge(and to keep melooking into new stocks) isnt a problem. Which mag would uyou suggest I start with for this year?
  4. westland


    Oct 8, 2004
    Hong Kong
    You should learn something about 'value' investing (read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, who was Warren Buffet's mentor) and 'momentum' investing, which is needed for riskier stocks. When you are going for growth, look for hype, ride it, and get out before everyone else. You already know not to put all your eggs in this basket.
  5. Tash


    Feb 13, 2005
    Bel Air Maryland
    I highly, highly suggest making an "on paper" account and playing with that for a year first. Give yourself $10,000 on paper, pick stocks, note the buy price and the price you decide to unload them at. Track everything and see how you did after one year. If you lost money, and don't know why you lost it, keep your real money in a CD or mutual fund until you can spot the things you did wrong.

    I'm speaking from bitter personal expirience here :)

  6. Wasn't Benjamin Graham WAAAAY back? like 1930-1940's? His techniques might be alittle out of date?
  7. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    You do recall you've started this thread before? http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showthread.php?t=174610

    At the time I'd kinda outed myself with a similar post to this one which follows, then had it deleted (some excerpts below). But if it'll help someone I'll say what I can and maybe it'll do some good. Just don't ignore all the good advice you've already gotten above and previously and start the same thread in a few months?


    Cool. Go for it - true empowerment ! I started in my teens too - I wasn't of legal age yet so my parents had to sign all my forms. LOL. Now I manage their investments, sit on the boards of public companies, have published widely read newsletters (of over 1000 susbcribers) ... man time flies. :meh: Well, I'm still closer to being a teen than a fogey thankfully.

    If you want to know how the market works, start by taking the Canadian Securities Course http://www.csi.ca/ It'll look great on your resume (very well regarded by those in the biz), and can be done via correspondence.

    I completely and respectfully disagree with the assertion that the only good books worth reading are published post tech crash. The tech crash was nothing new, in fact the same thing has happened here and abroad with great regularity. For that reason, some made good money during that crash.

    To that end, check out "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre. It's about the turn-of-the-century panic & crash. Turn of the *last* century. But it's word-for-word applicable to every boom and bust since then. Very amusingly written and fast-paced first-person account of a trader who went from rags to riches to rags to riches, and you'll get a real feel for the history of North American stock markets, commodities markets, and the major players such as JCPenny, et. al.

    And watch the movie "Pi" - the main character is obsessed with finding patterns in the stock market - great soundtrack, and while there's no "code" to crack, there are frequently repeated trends and signals you can use to your advantage.

    And check out the book "The Elliot Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter.

    Here you go. One of these is already up over 100% since this post I made last month, and most are up at least 30% - some are up several hundred percent since I started mentioning them here over the past year (see below for reference). Some won't fit your budget, but if you're serious and dput a bit of effort into th pursuit I have several others that'd suit a smaller portfolio - depends how much you have, what the risk tolerance is, for how long, etc. http://www.talkbass.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2313083&postcount=9 Some will be up another 1000% (yes, some are already up that much since I bought) and much more soon enough, and I'll reference this post in a year's time to prove it. IMO! Disclaimer - I've been in these for around a year now so I have a vested interest and you must do your own due diligence etc. etc. Bonus - most are Canadian or cross-listed here so you needn't expose yourself to foreign/US currency slides.

    You'll also need to take a look at "How To Buy Stocks" by Engel & Hecht.

    It'd be best if you have a passion for something or a certain business sector you know about and go with what you know. For example you might invest in Guitar Centre if you shop there and like their stores. That way at least you could follow it and learn the ups and downs vs. going blind like you do with mutuals or most portfolios really. I bought a Motorola phone recently which was the only one out of the hundreds on the market that met my needs. Had I taken that as a "sign" (and I did consider it) I'd have bought MOT stock and now been up about 30% in a few months. Just look to your day-to-day life for inspiration.

    I have some lumber and lumber lands holdings and they haven't moved due to the hurricanes. Maybe down the line there'll be a bottom line impact reflected in the share price, but currently the high CDN dollar has these somewhat out of favour so maybe you'd be "buying low" but I'd expect a long and boring ride up not some immediate hurricane effect.

    I'm not bullish on them - some I have due to connections to the lumber industry, and others because I saw a change for arbitrage on the land value vs. the timber holdings and while that went well I'm not longer bullish in the long term on North American land.

    Good instinct, but No. Oil and oil/refining services and especially uranium (see link above). To that end, please read "Twilight In The Desert" by Matthew R. Simmons (or save money and look him uponline and stream his speeches to get the gist of what he's on about).

    In the deleted post in your original thread which I mentioned at the top of this post, dated April 10 this year, I posted this (anyone wants to call me on it, I'm glad to prove it - Tim Cole had quoted it so I'd asked him to delete his post quoting same and many mods can still see that 'soft deleted' post which is how I got this excerpt so rather than take my word for it, I hereby give my assent for any mod to verify that but don't wish the full contents made public as there's personal stuff I decided to keep personal ergo the deletes. Most is rehashed within this post anyway, but better phrased IMO. Anyway, here's the excerpt which I still believe to be valid :

    "If you're at a loss, then go with energy. Gas/oil is due to keep going and going higher, and emerging markets like China and India will only exacerbate energy shortages thus pushing demand and prices higher. My favourite by far are urnanium plays. Some of those you can get into for quite cheaply - even only $1000 and among the best ones (of which there are very few) happen to be Canadian and some in Saskatchewan so that's local for you."

    To some degree it's merely institutionalized fraud. But there are some legit companies with a bright future and some are very affordable. What do you want to know? I can literally write a book-length personal account on almost any facet - from incorporation to going public, petitioning SB-2s to the SEC, busting scams and how they work, value investing, high risk investing, etc. etc. But I'd rather refer you again to the CSC course. All brokers in Canada have had to take and pass it, so you'll be on an even keel in that regard. It can be dry, and it's tougher than most university courses you'll encounter, but not if you put some effort into it.

    A mentor would help, or at least some reliable source of info, and learning for yourself and by doing. Do you even have an account yet? I'm guessing you'll go discount online brokerage (BMO is good, as is TD) since you'll learn nothing by believing anything a broker will tell you (they're just trying to unload their house's paper on you). SUbscriptions to decent newsletters would help - try http://www.keystocks.com/ They're cheap and not too bad. Very simplistic, but that's idea in your situation. A lot of low-cost plays, some that don't move and others that do really well. I have a basket of some of their calls. Suggest you stick with those that have regular volume and the nearly dead ones can be hard to get in and out of and are too boring to watch.

    Josh's is great advice. Can't comment on the other posters as I don't know their trading angles or their resource recommendations. ... Except for the paper trading - that is a great way to get a feel for things but your *real* trading will always go differently. The decisions you make with real money on the line will be different. You have to learn the hard way, and it'll be costly - in finance no one is to be taken seriously unless they've lost big and then rebounded and won bigger by learning from their mistakes.

    Joshua will appreciate this quote I think. "The only lessons that you learn are from things that you regret."

    BTW, if you're not sure where to track stocks, for historical charting Bigcharts.com is great and for setting up & tracking portfolios (mock or not) quotes.yahoo.com works well.

    People are expecting a crash in October, so expect a dip which lemmings will sell into making for a big one or two day "crash" and then a big rally into year's end. People are brainwashed with this "big crash in October" thing, but don't realize that the big crashes historically *end* in October. As I said above there's nothing new, and when a lot of people say something will happen (such as a crash this October) you should put money on the opposite (which is why I turned bullish short-term on real estate after the mass media started agreeing/promoting the idea of a debt/housing crash - which to me means at least another 30% appreciation to suck more buyers/debtors in before a real crash takes place).

    Using the tech crash as an example, everyone said it the bull run couldn't last and feared Y2k fallout, but the markets kept roaring. Once Y2K proved to be a non-event even the bears bought into that "new paradigm" rubbish (the signal to sell and/or go short) and sure enough in March 2000 the crash began ... except for those who went short or moved into resources. Interestingly, if you put that crash chart over the chart of the Nikkei crash it's virtually identical - greed and panic cycles have hallmark chart patterns - again nothing new which is why I stress that concept.

    So if you're set up and serious about trading with dollars, the next couple weeks could provide some good entry points. For long-term plays though, just get in whenever you can rather than trying to outsmart the market and time pricing. I took a few new long positions just the morning, in fact - trying to practice what I preach. I don't need to catch every minor dip, so long as I get out before the big crash in '07.

    I hope this proves useful. Some people pay dearly for this same advice, but for a young Kid from the 'Toon and fellow bassist I'm glad to take the time to type it but forigve me any typos as it's too late to edit. Understand no one can just hand it to you, and what works for me and my experiences may not work for everyone or mirror the expriences of others. Understand that you will lose - and that it's better you lose a little bit early than get lucky at first and lose a lot later. It will take a lot of time and effort and discipline to succeed and overstand (sic) it - and a lot of ups & downs - just like anything of value.

    Simply reading what I consider to be shameless hype sheets like Fortune or following CNBC will not put you ahead of the curve (sorry Bop! - but I wouldn't recommend people line their birdcage with most of those publications). Do you show discipline in other aspects of your life - sports, music, school? If so you have a very small chance of success if you're able to focus that discipline a thousandfold into this endeavor, and if not you might as well just light your money on fire and save some time.

    Oh, and if you're ever awake at night sweating one of your positions, you're in too deep. This business can take a heavy toll on your health, spirit, and life expectancy. Don't be like the guy in "Pi" and allow it to consume you and next thing you know you're staying up all hours crunching numbers and plotting graphs and ... ah the days of holding the Cowan NYSE Thomson IPO ADRs and trading the shares overnight on the Paris Bourse ;) If that sounds like Greek to you, get studying !

    Oh yeah - Good luck !
  8. Ok, SMASH actually just sent me a PM and gave me some fresh thoughts. As far as my investing has gone so far is mutual funds I started at 300 and have over a thousand in there now. I think I'm ready for the next step(and I have a little extra cash). So I think I Will ditch that, take my 1000 add it with a few more hundred and invest in oil/uranium. I will probably pick 2-3 companies to start.

    Just thought I would give everyone an update. There are a few companies I am interested in now(suncor), but I havnt done much indepth research on them yet.

    I have definatly taken all theinformation given and absorbed it. If not for people willing to help out I would probably have all my money in a 4% GIC. Either way, If anyone has any idea's or anything to add definatly do so. I need as much help as I can get. There are probably a few other people who would benefit also.
  9. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    I'm glad you actually got into it. Good for you. May I suggest if you're getting into cheaper/riskier stocks to spread funds over at least 5 issues. That should be easy enough with $1000 if sticking to stocks under $1. It'll give you more action, more to watch, and so more to learn - learning/discipline is the main objective here, not trying to get rich.

    That SU.to (Alberta oil sands) has been one of my main holdings for the past year and half (along with DEN.to and its warrants, UEX.to, and LAM.v those being uranium). SUncor is up almost 40% in the few months since I mentioned it as a keen core position in that link above. If you check the chart, know the adage "the trend is your friend". Beyond that, what research are you planning - technical, metrics, ratios? Bear in mind it crossed $90 today so a single board lot will cost you $900 + commissions. Still very cheap IMO.

    I'd forgotten I'd said this above :

    "People are expecting a crash in October, so expect a dip which lemmings will sell into making for a big one or two day "crash" and then a big rally into year's end."

    :) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=6m

    Going ahead, I expect a bit of stagnation early on this year, which we're already in the midst of, then a Spring rally, Summer stagnation and drop, sucker trap rally into year's end, then a big crash all-'round economically in '07. With stuff like oil/uranium/gold though all should be well.

    IMO, a great little basket of cheap stocks - most with oil/gas or uranium angles close to you - currently, in order of value, would be : AFRPF.pk SGC.v JNN.v NCR.v HBE.v UGS.v (disclaimer - I have all these) and will soon pick up FRP.v and SOX.v though I rate these below the above stocks. Most, maybe all, of these are also listed on US exchanges but I've given the CDN tickers here where applicable. Actually those are how the tickers are done on Yahoo Finance, if using Bigcharts just precede the ticker with "ca:" and omit the exchange suffix.

    Presume I am an utter crackpot with zero experience making up ticker symbols via random stabbing at my keyboard and do your own due diligence. Said that, am always glad to discuss the topic.

    EDIT : spelling = "ticker", not "ticket".
  10. :eek: Not get rich! No I know where your coming from. This is actually why I started the thread.... both threads :smug: .

    Hopefully within the next 6 or so months I will gather a lot of information and learn from playing with my money. If somcor is going to cost me 900+ I'll just let that one go for now.

    I'm not really sure yet how to do market research. What I mean is forinstance if I grabbed a basket of 5 uranium, 5 oil, 5 technology and wanted to pick one from each... I would be guessing.

    You started me off with some suggestions. Um, I'll probably use those for starters, if you dont mind. The energy industry is huge, and well, I want to be a part of that. There is unlimited room for financial growth, hopefully I dont bomb and lose it all.
  11. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    Good. Pray that you lose early on, as there is no greater teacher. But don't pray so hard to lose if you participate in any of my holdings ;)

    Do also "paper trade" but not with the idea of flipping for short term swing gains. That's bogus especially when paper trading, and will only reinforce false assumptions and bad habits that will get you broke when money's on the line.

    But do imagine perhaps a $10k portfolio spread over 5-10 stocks, perhaps starting with 100 SUncor. As with any trades, and this is *KEY*, write down why you chose it - you like the name, you discovered it when it was valued at $5/share which is your favourite number, you liked the P/E ratio, got it from a given source, etc. etc. Also *KEY* is to write down what your expectation is and what your targets are. You may revise these over time, but never make entries or exists that are not in accordance with your written goals. Enter imaginary stop loss orders if you like, but when they hit do not 2nd guess them - if they hit, then you no longer own the stock and do not re-buy it (even if pretending).

    Guessing is fine, but write down why you guessed for one over the other. Have at least some reason, however dubious, behind your guess - and if you can't come up with anything, just guess in favour of those which are higher now than they were a year ago and higher then than they were the year before.

    I don't mind. Best of luck to you, and keep us posted.

    Also consider ideas from here, which I referred you to above - http://www.keystocks.com/ Of the newsletters that will make calls you can perhaps afford, and of those that don't cost so much that you'd spend more on the letter than you have invested, this one is pretty good. Nothing exciting here, but they're not nutsos going whichever way the wind blows either. None of the picks I've suggested appear there, so you'll get a lot of fresh ideas and at less frightening entries than some of mine which may already be up huge in the past year or two (though most of those I listed above aren't in that category).

    And *DO* read the book/site Joshua suggests as you'll get a different view for very good balance. This way you're learning and doing your homework - put time in every day either reading, researching, or even just charting the progress of you holdings. If you're serious about it and wish to be prepared if/when you've got real money on the line, then you have to put the work in now.

    But don't let that scare you - if you're cut out for it, it should be fun.

    Again, good luck !
  12. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000

    Forgot to do this yesterday. Since a couple people have PM'd/emailed me about these types postings I've made, I thought I should update this as they're no longer all at ideal entries. When I made the above suggestions, I actually made a separate portfolio based on them and the mix went like so :

    Symbol Shares Price
    Per Share

    UGS.v is up about 120% already so while with such a small holding I'd normally advise taking all of it out to cement the quick profits, normally with a quick double I'd suggest taking out half thereby effectively making the remaining holdings free. Depends what you might be paying in commissions on something so cheap if that makes it worthwhile, but I'll illustrate the latter here and suggest taking out half (it's currently bid at 95c) which added to the $160 left over from our original $1000 gives us approx. $210 (it'd be more, but I'm not bothering with exchange rates in these examples as to try to keep it simple). Were it me, I'd add another 400 shares AFRPF with those funds.

    So, currently it'd sit like so :

    Symbol Shares Price
    Per Share

    There'd be about $50 cash left over and the basket currently sits at approx. +13% (ex. purchase commissions).

    I'll update this again if/when warranted.

    EDIT - I'll have to enter the proper # of shares and price for each later, as cut/paste from my account page doesn't seem to carry that info over
  13. 43% burnt

    43% burnt an actor who wants to run the whole show

    May 4, 2004
    Bridgeport, CT
    Wow...a lot of great suggestions/information here.

    I know basically nothing, but have just began making contributions to my 401k plan. Right now I'm putting it all into a money market account, while I learn about the different ways to invest. Since I don't have a clue...I figured this is the smartest move.

    I've been told I should be investing agressively, since I'm young (28) and can afford risk. As far as what that really means, I have no idea.

    I'm going to check out some of the sites and books mentioned. I look forward to learning more about the financial world.
  14. canopener


    Sep 15, 2003
    Isle of Lucy
    Ditto. Lot's of good info here. I don't know how I missed this thread last year. Basically, I've been looking to do the same thing, invest a couple hundred with me and the fiance but never got around to doing my research. This should be a good kickstart.
  15. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    Ah, people coming out of the woodwork. Figures now updated (see below).

    For those who may not have access to CDN markets or if the commission costs for same are prohibitive, let me know if you'd prefer US picks. However, this was originally done to help the thread starter out who is in Canada and for the last couple years the CDN markets have far outperformed the US markets, even more so if factoring exchange rate movements, and will continue to do so for the next several years so I suggest getting access. Up here, we have easy access to all US exchanges with no additional fees. That said, I do not exclusively play CDN markets. In fact until a couple years ago I held no CDN issues and was all US or European. But you go where the wind is at your back if you want an advantage, and the mandate to find such cheap issues that actually have any merit is a tough.

    If anyone wishes picks more appropriate for larger portfolios, let me know. For these types of picks I'd recommend putting up to perhaps $10k into such a basket. I regularly start new portfolios based on a variety of strategies and risk tolerance but I see no reason to go beyond the suggested picks listed here already in order to illustrate key concepts and caveats.

    NOTE - while adding to AFRPF above may seem like the concept of "averaging down" or "dollar cost averaging" in fact it is not and those concepts should *never* be applied except by experienced market participants and any advice to do so as a default strategy when purchasing individual issues at retail (such as in these examples) even if that advice coming from a "pro" should be shunned and looked upon suspiciously. I can elaborate on that another time.

    Starting figures :

    AFRPF.PK 200 .53
    SGC.V 100 2.08
    JNN.V 100 .92
    NCR.V 200 .51
    HBE.V 200 .36
    UGS.V 200 .44
    FRP.V 200 .32
    SOX.V 100 .47

    Current figures :

    AFRPF.PK 600 .46
    SGC.V 100 2.08
    JNN.V 100 .92
    NCR.V 200 .51
    HBE.V 200 .36
    UGS.V 100 .44
    FRP.V 200 .32
    SOX.V 100 .47

    Format is ticker.exchange, # of shares held, price paid.

    Calculating more accurately, we've got $89 in reserve and $35 in paper profits still invested so that's +12.4% so far. I will not include commissions in these caculations since those vary greatly in price for most people (especially in the States) and more importantly would eat a greatly varying percentage of gains depending on initial investment (another reason why very small portfolios or frequent trading in same is not cost-effective) so for the purpose of this illustration I don't count those as relevant.
  16. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    Some changes being made due to the doubling of a couple more holdings.

    100 HBE will be sold bringing the holdings down to 100, as it is up nearly 100% and I wish to pocket some of those gains thereby leaving the remaining amount of shares effectively "free" of cost.

    100 FRP will be sold bringing the holdings down to 100, as it is up nearly 100% and I wish to pocket some of those gains thereby leaving the remaining amount of shares effectively "free" of cost.

    Normally such small amounts of shares and value wouldn't be worth breaking up, but it's all relative and I'm doing to it illustrate the discipline behind successful management of a portfolio of this nature - agressive and with big fast gains on the table.

    Added to the $59 in reserve currently held, this'll up cash holdings to $191. The portfolio is now up 60% since its inception in late January. Above average for only a couple months.

    Holdings are now :

    Current figures :

     ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   percentage gain (loss).
    AFRPF.PK                   600                   .46            .76                           65
    SGC.V                         100                 2.08          2.63                           25
    JNN.V                          100                   .92          1.17                          26
    NCR.V                         200                   .51            .415                        (18) 
    HBE.V                         100                   .36            .67                          91
    UGS.V                         100                   .44           1.54                       250
    FRP.V                         100                   .32             .65                        102
    SOX.V                         100                   .47            .78                         65
    Cash $191             Net Gain 60%    

    This is all of course merely a depiction of my trading of this portfolio and is in no way an offer to buy or sell or trade securities, do your own due diligence and consult with a certified advisor in your area before making any trades, I make no representation of my qualifications or sanity and for that matter presume this was all achieved by randomly typing ticker symbols, current results not indicative of future results, etc. ad infinitum, have a great day.
  17. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000

    Thanks. Admittedly it sounds ridiculous, but I started making monthly portfolios 6 months ago in which I try to illustrate/actualize/practice different strategies and so far I have all of them up between 20-60% since inception, with the TB portfolio the leader and the laggard at 20% having been handcuffed by the rules of a trading contest I used to create the portfolio or it'd have done better. I actually expected the TB one to only gain perhaps 15-20% so it's a nice surprise, especially as it has taken almost no action to realize such gains. Overall Q3 I was up 40%, Q4 down 3%, Q1 up around 40% (give or take 5% as I haven't properly calculated it yet), and I've got the finger on the "sell" trigger on some of the more juicy gains in case a reversal becomes evident in this Q2 (per my predictions ealry in this thread - I think it was this thread - for '06) which brought me to the above trades.

    For the style, your gains are arguably even more impressive. Is that typical or did you also have an unusually good quarter? What do you do in case you're expecting a bad year? For example I expect a major downturn coming between '07 and '10 likely at least starting sometime in '07 for which I'd go short or at least go mostly into cash (perhaps in order to fund real estate if interest rates continue rising thus providing some good bargains in a bursting bubble scenario?) ... but what do you do if holding a basket of mutuals in the Coffehouse style?
  18. finger on the sell button... hmmm... i better keep my eye out too then :). Showing some nice little gains, looking good smash
  19. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000

    I meant in re: specific other holdings of my own outside of those illustrated here.

    As for this portfolio, I am not antsy about it though I wouldn't be surprised to be making a call for reduction of AFRPF should it hit close to the 100% gain mark, NCR if it continues to underperform, and/or UGS as it represents more of the overall holdings than I think it should since it's now up over 250% already.

    Beyond that, I'll be making additions (one or two given that there isn't much cash available) soon I think. I still consider most of the holdings here "buys" despite their gains, but some only "holds" and thus IMO not as good candidates for fresh entries as future calls might be.

    Have you participated in any? I hope you're doing well. Feel free to ask any questions anytime. Anyone can. Otherwise I plan to roll with this for awhile as I hope it may prove something of real value I can offer fellow participants on this site, or simply something to spark good discussion about a topic I obviously hold dear and think extremely important for everyone to know about ... purely as satire and in no way a proper method to research stocks or make investment decisions of course.
  20. SMASH

    SMASH Guest

    Jan 18, 2000
    That's excellent ! How long have you been at it with this method, and were you always playing it via Vanguard?