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Beginner Financial Investing.

#61
Joshua said:
...So you're saying I can't ask questions?

:D

In truth, while I understand it now, there was certainly a time in the recent past where I would have needed the breakdown for sure. Most of my more in depth studies in trading have all been of the more recent varieties. When I began my investing trek in the late 90's/early millenium this whole post would have soared over my head!

I only hope anyone reading takes the time to digest and ask questions. Investing/financial planning is so important, and most folks fly by on a wing and a prayer.
Click to expand...

I guess you can ask ... even if you know the answer better than I do !

Well, we're not going to learn about warrants first-hand in this example after all. SGN jumped as much as 40% since the last post on that buyout news, but it appears momentum is turning against us so I don't want to risk the gains.

I'm selling SGN and the 2nd portion of RH out of the sample portfolio for gains of 77% in 10 weeks and 64% in 6 weeks respectively.

That leaves :


Code: 
ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

UNI.v                  100                .36            .50             39
RH.v                   100                .44           1.39            216
FRP.v                  200                .46            .75             63
BAY.v                  100               1.61           1.50             (7)
HPS-a.to               100              11.90          11.66             (2)

Cash $609    Net Gain to date is 126% in 14 months.

Had we started with $10k, by now we'd have enough for a new "boutique" custom, 
a new "boutique" rig, plus several grand in hand, and the original amount still 
invested.  That's the beauty of savings and proper investing.  Of course the 
gains aren't always so quick or steady, but so far so good.

I think we're due for a rough patch in the markets, hence all the selling in the last few updates with the only purchase being one of real value. As for my own holdings, I've been selling for a few weeks in Canada and generally moving short in the US.
 
#62
Big jump in the sample portfolio's main holding this week, bumping it to new highs.

I'm adding a position in another stock that has actual value (revenues/earnings), thereby limiting the speculative risk. And it has to do with neodymium which will interest some TBers. NEM.to

Code: 
ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

UNI.v                  100                .36            .51             42
RH.v                   100                .44           1.25            184
FRP.v                  200                .46            .76             65
BAY.v                  100               1.61           1.50              0
HPS-a.to               100              11.90          13.38             12
NEM.to                 100               4.08 

Cash $201    Net Gain to date is 144% in just over 14 months.

While this portfolio started with, and was limited by, "only" $1000, 
consider these percentages in light of starting with $10k or $100k.  
The trick is to be consistent in the long run though.  We'll see.
 
#63
I've been out of UNI.v for awhile and wanted to "sell" it here, but the metrics I'm going by for this sample portfolio were still intact for this stock. However that's no longer the case, so it's gone at a 20% gain. That leaves just 2 stocks left from the original batch just over 14 months ago.

I'll add 200 shares ER.to to be held over 70c

So now it's :

Code: 
ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

RH.v                   100                .44           1.27            189
FRP.v                  200                .46            .76             65
BAY.v                  100               1.47           1.50             (9)
HPS-A.to               100              11.90          13.07              9
NEM.to                 100               4.08           3.83             (6)
ER.to                  200                .85        

Cash $74      Net Gain to date is 136% in 14.5 months.

If I had to bet, I'd bet we'll soon be stopped out of a few of these holdings over the next few weeks - meaning they'll fall and be sold to preserve capital. Hopefully I'm wrong, since I actually own these with by far the largest amounts - and the most of my faith - being in HPS-A.to
 
#64
How do you guys find stocks? Do you have some kind of search engine where you can put in certain paramaters and it will find what you are looking for? I have a pretty bare bones discount brokeredge account so I dont have alot of options for stuff like that.

For long term plays I only buy mutual funds as I don't really have time to set up a long term portfolio and keep track of it.

For short term stuff I've had pretty good succsess with buying OTM calls and puts on chartered canadian banks and selling them before expiry. I also recently made a fairly good profit buying a couple calls on the TSX group when it plumeted after the chartered banks and canacord anounced an ATS and selling it after it corrected a bit and then spiked nicely the day before the exdividend day.
 
#65
Whoa! That's pretty advanced play. May I suggest you be sure to never play more than the same basic amount - the day you go for a home run will be a strikeout, market karma being as it is.

I find stocks by a lot of hard work and a few thousand $ per year in subscriptions to different newsletters and such. Full-service brokerages, private placements, word in the biz, related magazines, news articles, tips from friends ... you name it.


fr0me0 said:
How do you guys find stocks? Do you have some kind of search engine where you can put in certain paramaters and it will find what you are looking for? I have a pretty bare bones discount brokeredge account so I dont have alot of options for stuff like that.

For long term plays I only buy mutual funds as I don't really have time to set up a long term portfolio and keep track of it.

For short term stuff I've had pretty good succsess with buying OTM calls and puts on chartered canadian banks and selling them before expiry. I also recently made a fairly good profit buying a couple calls on the TSX group when it plumeted after the chartered banks and canacord anounced an ATS and selling it after it corrected a bit and then spiked nicely the day before the exdividend day.
Click to expand...
 
#66
Not much point in going on with this one admittedly, but it's a bit of a hobby for me.

An update to add 400 shares RSG.v at $0.165 (sixteen and one half cents) with most of the $74 in the cash fund, leaving $8 left. It's a risky one, as suggested by its low price, but with most of the funds in solid earner HPS-A some risk makes for good balance.

Updated :

Code: 
ticker.exchange    # of shares held    price paid    current price   % gain

RH.v                   100                .44           1.18            168
FRP.v                  200                .46            .81             76
BAY.v                  100               1.61           1.41            (12)
HPS-A.to               100              11.90          13.50             13
NEM.to                 100               4.08           4.55             12
ER.to                  200                .85            .70            (18)    
RSG.v                  400                .165

Cash $8      

Net Gain to date per the trades in this thread is 144% in 16.5 months.

As always, these are just example of some of my trading. Could be yours, or not, but that's up to you to live and learn and not just copy what you see on a message board.
 
#70
joeyl said:
I personally do not like any kind of funds.... :)
Click to expand...


I cannot disagree with you more.
Vanguard funds are no load and low fee.
Individual stocks? I don't want to take the time to throroughly research them. I'd rather play bass or ski or a million other things.

Index. What more can I say? Whether you index the whole market or stress mid caps or international or bonds or REIT...but that's up to you. Regardless, shove the money in and do not look at it more than twice a year and never sell unless you are 'rebalancing' your portfolios for diversification.

I know people the run huge stock funds and hedge funds. Off the record, the suggest index all the way, esp for taxed accounts. But even for tax deffered accounts, index funds for the majority of your money are what I do. One of the few places where index can falter a bit, not alot, is with international investing. But even there, I have lot in emerging markets index and I'm happy with it.

I'm 44. I have 100% in stock funds and most of it in index. Last week...pheh...I only care what it will be like in 10-15 years. Over that time period stocks will trounce bonds.
 
#72
Jim, I think in 10-15 years you'll be lucky if the indexes are as high as they are now and in the meantime it'll probably get quite ugly.

And that's the "bright side" if measuing in rapidly devaluing US Dollars. If measuring in gold, oil, Euros, etc. it'll look far worse.

Real estate, same thing.

IMO.

What I do know is that a good investor will trounce funds consistently. It does take some effort though, and time is money.

Good luck to all of us.
 
#73
SMASH said:
Jim, I think in 10-15 years you'll be lucky if the indexes are as high as they are now and in the meantime it'll probably get quite ugly.

And that's the "bright side" if measuing in rapidly devaluing US Dollars. If measuring in gold, oil, Euros, etc. it'll look far worse.

Real estate, same thing.

IMO.

What I do know is that a good investor will trounce funds consistently. It does take some effort though, and time is money.

Good luck to all of us.
Click to expand...
I don't know. And I think nobody knows. For if anybody knew, every fund manager and investor would be kicking butt. How many articles suggest that large caps will do this and value should do that and global will yaddayadda and then a year later or more there are more articles saying we thought A but B occured and here's why.

I really think the Efficient Market Hypothesis works very well. Perhaps less well in international areas and perhaps in small caps. But I think MY ability and willingness to devote the energy to pick the winners is not great. So I index and control costs. I may not make a killing, but I don't think I'll take a beating. And I don't worry about it.

My dad has spoken with guys like Ron Baron, Olstein, etc. Aftering hearing those conversations....... :)

Time and compound interest....I hope I'll be OK.
.
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#75
Fair enough, but if you read sources that are reliable - ones that have done well through several cycles over decades - you'll get a different impression IMO.

Speaking of which, be very careful about trusting anyone running hedge funds. Many of their funds are about to fail miserably in headline-grabbing fashion. Tip of the iceberg - Link Removed It's telling they were betting (not investing wisely) on risky mortgages.

Similarly many mortage holders will be going bust soon too, and FWIW I was predicting this thing quite vocally including here on TB, with specifically a 2007 target date for it to hit the fan for the markets and mortgage holders, a few years ago. Joshua can vouch for that I believe, as the Lobby thread I chiefly said so in got deleted when that forum was reduced.

Bottom line is that when people recklessly borrow, borrow, borrow they go broke, broke, broke. Governments too, hence the US Dollar woes. Ergo whatever people invest in, I respectfully suggest significant holdings outside the US and US Dollar. Had even an index player done so 6 years ago, he'd be ahead an additional 50% or so at this point thanks to the currency advantage alone and would have made greater returns as well since most foreign markets outperformed the US market.

Nothing against the US here, as I was 100% in US equities until mid 2000 and since then I've had 0% or very little mostly due to necessity. I'm just observing a clear and continuing trend and going on the record with it, and have been saying that for years now on TB.

It's what works for me anyway. No investment advice intended or implied.



JimS said:
I don't know. And I think nobody knows. For if anybody knew, every fund manager and investor would be kicking butt. How many articles suggest that large caps will do this and value should do that and global will yaddayadda and then a year later or more there are more articles saying we thought A but B occured and here's why.

I really think the Efficient Market Hypothesis works very well. Perhaps less well in international areas and perhaps in small caps. But I think MY ability and willingness to devote the energy to pick the winners is not great. So I index and control costs. I may not make a killing, but I don't think I'll take a beating. And I don't worry about it.

My dad has spoken with guys like Ron Baron, Olstein, etc. Aftering hearing those conversations....... :)

Time and compound interest....I hope I'll be OK.
.
.
Click to expand...
 
#77
Joshua said:
Duly vouched.

And coincidentally, I recv'd the annual (maybe bi-annual?) prospectus for the Vanguard Total Int'l Index Fund over the weekend. Rather than throw it straight in the trash (as I usually know exactly how it's performing and they do not allow you not to receive it) I took a quick peek at performance. It's off the charts!

:D

And good luck to all indeed. Were I not massively diversified I wouldn't even try to play the game, and even with that there are no guarantees. Heck, there aren't any in any case!
Click to expand...

+1
Diversified indexer (mostly) here!
 
#79
Don't forget the propensity for the top performering funds to become very poor performers after a few years. Natural cycle, and also the effect of too much money (via popularity of the top performers du jour) being put into investing programs that don't work as well, if at all, with too much money in them.

I want to clarify something. I am NOT bearish on the US. I am bearish on gross fiscal mismanagement at the personal and national/gov't level. I am bullish that trends in place for hundreds, if not thousands, of years remain intact in re: the rise and fall of all empires (Asian, then European, now arguably American), economic ages (the oil century in this case), and the pattern of wealth migrating East every so often (per the bit empires).

It's just someone else's turn to rise and fall, and massive leveraged borrowing at every level of our society is only going to hasten that turn. IMO, and per human nature & folly. There's a clear difference in my mind though in re: the patterns I mention and the actions and inevitable results of gross fiscal malfeasance (and arguably massive fraud at the currency level in re: currencies not tied to any hard assets such as gold) vs. the character of the people and the nation. I don't believe it's political to simply say that it's shocking to me that people would rather argue decades-old insignificant military actions and rights for gays (when the people arguing aren't even gay) vs. asking where the #### all the money is coming from, where it's going, why, and who's going to cover the debt.

JMHO.

In today's news, one more domino falls. Many, many more in line.

"The mortgage meltdown continues... Shares of American Home Mortgage (AHM) didn't open for trading today, after the company announced its credit facilities were being withdrawn. The banks that backed AHM in the past now don't believe the company's mortgages are worthy collateral. The "run on the bank" means AHM won't pay dividends on its common stocks and might not be able to pay on its preferred shares either. This announcement comes less than a month after AHM affirmed its dividend policy and said it would survive the downturn."



"The collapse of a credit bubble is far worse than the ending of a stock market bubble. As Henry Hazlitt wrote over 60 years ago in his classic, Economics in One Lesson:

Government-guaranteed home mortgages, especially when a negligible down payment or no down payment whatever is required, inevitably mean more bad loans than otherwise. They force the general taxpayer to subsidize the bad risks and to defray the losses. They encourage people to "buy" houses that they cannot really afford. They tend eventually to bring about an oversupply of houses as compared with other things. They temporarily overstimulate building, raise the cost of building for everybody (including the buyers of the homes with the guaranteed mortgages), and may mislead the building industry into an eventually costly overexpansion. In brief in the long run they do not increase overall national production but encourage malinvestment."


"Who will bail Americans out of their bad debts? The Chinese of course. Bloomberg reports: "The Bush administration is urging China's central bank to buy more government-backed mortgage bonds in an effort to sustain financing for U.S. home loans. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson is in Beijing to persuade the Chinese central bank to buy more securities from Ginnie Mae, a corporation under HUD that guarantees $417 billion in federally insured, fixed-rate mortgages...""
 
#80
Joshua said:
Mea culpa, I was generalizing more than I should have...
Click to expand...

No worries ! I believe you and I both know what you meant, but I wished to spell it our for anyone taking it literally.

In today's news :

"John Devaney, CEO of United Capital Markets, a hedge fund that focuses on buying subprime ARM-backed securities, has been forced to sell his $23.5 million 145-foot yacht and his $16 million Aspen vacation home.

Looks like John had his own skin in the game. Early this month, he stopped granting investors’ requests to withdraw their investments in the United Capital Markets fund. Soon after, the value of Bear Stearns’ dashed funds were revealed. Mr. Devaney has yet to reevaluate his fund… but what’s inside must be crotte, too. How much financial trouble would you have to be in to sell your house and your boat?"
 

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