Fender values in the future

[micguy]

Mass produced goods generally don't appreciate in value. When it comes to guitars and basses, make no mistake - Fender today is a mass market brand. The thing about early Fenders is they didn't make very many of them - those of us who were around in the 60's remember that seeing someone playing an electric instrument was a pretty rare event, except maybe on TV - there just aren't that many of them. There are enough people with nostalgia for such things, and who have enough money, that early Fenders today command a decent price.

Fenders made more recently are present in much greater numbers. Apply the law of supply and demand, and you can pretty easily figure out that a recently made Fender is unlikely to command a high price a couple decades from now - unless the market for them increases greatly. That probably won't happen. Fender makes decent musical instruments nowadays (better than the early ones in most cases). They aren't good investments, though.

 

[Smooth_bass88]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

I think if you look at how much 2003-2013 US Fender basses are going for currently this will give you an idea of what a 2023 model will be worth in 10-20 years. Me? My basses have all “paid for themselves” many many times over which is why I feel the concept of resale value with regard to an electric bass is quite silly.

 

[Pdaddy1978]

The 3 prong rule of collectability and values.
1. Rarity.... how many were made, and how many are still around.
2. Condition...Is it the best example of whatever it is?
3. Desirability...Do People want it? Your one of kind 1914 cheese straitener isn't valuable if nobody cares.
These rules apply if your talking comic books, baseball cards, or bass guitars.
Dosen't matter what it is.
Bloated values will sometimes have a short term heyday if you lean in on the Desirability leg of the tripod ( I'm looking at you Beany babies) but when people realize how many of them there are, and what great shape they've been kept, values evaporate.

 

[Grinderman]

It seems to me discussions about this topic usually reflect how the commodification of virtually everything makes some people somewhat more prone to distorted perceptions and perspectives about this category of product or object, much like perceptions and perspectives have been distorted regarding various other things with close proximity to collectibles.


I think this an interesting and somewhat relevant article.

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[5StringBlues]

Who will be buying these bases 50 years from now?

 

[Grinderman]

Some more rare Fenders do. My Pawnshop Jag and original Jaguar are worth more than I paid for them even factoring inflation.

I suspect the vast majority of people expected or sensed the likelihood that would happen at the time when they bought those new.

I bought a brand new MIJ Fender IV for a good price in the early '90s. Besides the fact that it was a good instrument and a fun and interesting instrument, knowing what I know now, I was an idiot for selling it in mint condition a few years later.

 

[stevensivak]

But..... if had to choose today to buy either a Fender bass or some other brand of similar quality, I would all other factors been similar quality wise, choose the Fender because I would bet my sweet bippy (remember that line?) that the Fender will hold its value better than "other" brands...

 

[Grinderman]

But..... if had to choose today to buy either a Fender bass or some other brand of similar quality, I would all other factors been similar quality wise, choose the Fender because I would bet my sweet bippy (remember that line?) that the Fender will hold its value better than "other" brands...

I wouldn't bet on that either way.

Who will be buying these bases 50 years from now?

That's a living person's problem. 2073 is not a working date on my personal calendar.

 

[stevensivak]

Then was would you bet on?

 

[5StringBlues]

Santa's little helper in the 5th.

 

[Matt O]

My bet: I seriously doubt anything that was produced by Fender after the move from Fullerton, other than a few very limited editions, will be of any great value in the future.

 

[stevensivak]

I am not saying that it will be worth much, just that they will be worth more than some other brand...

 

[Jim Nazium]

"Predictions are tough, especially about the future." ~ Yogi Berra

That said, I agree with Killing Floor in post #16. I have the same opinion about 1960s American muscle cars. There is a generation that grew up wanting a big-block Mustang and a pre-CBS Fender. They couldn't afford it as kids, but they can as empty-nest adults (well some of them can), and they drove prices way up. But that generation is getting old and won't be splurging on collectibles much longer.

 

[sawzalot]

Sometimes you just can't know. I have a 1994 MusicMan Stingray. Did I know in '94 when I bought it that the mid 90's would one day be considered a "golden age" of MusicMan basses? Nope. I just wanted a solid, well made bass with a good slap tone. The rest is all pure chance.

 

[Auspuff]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

All I know is fretless prices have gone through the proverbial roof. Finding a fretless, without lines, and dots, have increased, in price, even more so.

And, the two places I see prices climbing are: Made in America, and Made in Japan.

 

[J-Bass RMR]

No offense intended - I don't mean this in a negative sense, but we as a society are somewhat financially illiterate. A vast majority of people do not understand what constitutes a "good investment".

I bought my '67 J-bass in '83 for $400.00. It would likely sell for $10K or more today. Pretty good, huh?

That same amount invested in the S&P 500, over the same period, would be worth over $30K right now.
S&P 500 Returns since 1983

One of the reasons he purchased it

I hope the other reasons are mostly that he enjoys playing it, but I am sure it will be worth something....

I seriously doubt anything that was produced by Fender after the move from Fullerton, other than a few very limited editions, will be of any great value in the future.

The Roscoe Beck's are considered some of the finest basses Fender produced (modern era) - especially the passive V. I've owned mine for 25 years.
They've been discontinued for some time now, and are somewhat scarce.
They do show up used periodically, and a V will go for about what you'd pay for a new Fender bass now....

 

[Koshchei]

You will see, and frankly the it's the one's looking for capital gains 50 years out are the ones that will be realizing it. Us grey panthers will be long gone and forgotten. But we had a great time performing music while it lasted.

Best wishes.

Hopefully, if any type of music has to die, it's popular music. Folk music is traditional, and therefore varnished over by time, and art music is by definition a human creation. It'll mean that you have to go looking for it, but hopefully still out there.

 

[Chrisk-K]

In the future AI will play virtual basses.

 

[SoulReflection]

Hopefully, if any type of music has to die, it's popular music. Folk music is traditional, and therefore varnished over by time, and art music is by definition a human creation. It'll mean that you have to go looking for it, but hopefully still out there.

I vote for Folk, Americana, Blues and Soul. What is music without them?

 

[Hounddog409]

The AmProII is the current model. In 10-20 years, that bass would be similar in age to the older AmStd line, which includes my 2015 jazz. Although it’s a great bass and inflation has kept its value relatively high, I’d fancy a guess that the most I could get for it (in excellent condition with case and all candy) is about $1,200, and even that is likely high.

If he’s doing this as a play because Fenders that are 40+ years old are going for $2k+ then I think he’s going to be upset.

I dont think you paid $1200 in 2015??