Fender values in the future

[Meenkya]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

 

[jmattbassplaya]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

The AmProII is the current model. In 10-20 years, that bass would be similar in age to the older AmStd line, which includes my 2015 jazz. Although it’s a great bass and inflation has kept its value relatively high, I’d fancy a guess that the most I could get for it (in excellent condition with case and all candy) is about $1,200, and even that is likely high.

If he’s doing this as a play because Fenders that are 40+ years old are going for $2k+ then I think he’s going to be upset.

 

[2thAche]

The only thing that would make them appreciate is if something changes at Fender where they no longer make US models, or start making US models that suck, or Fender gets bought by someone else and things change. As long as Fender keeps making US models and nothing makes the older ones better, they won't be worth anything more than a new US model. They'll maybe hold value better than a MIM but they're not gonna blow up like a pre-CBS or a pre-70s.

To go up in value, there must be something unique about them that won't happen again in the future. That's not happening with modern US Fenders except *maybe* a custom shop.

 

[Windreaper]

To go up in value, there must be something unique about them that won't happen again in the future. That's not happening with modern US Fenders except *maybe* a custom shop.

Mmh, a custom shop guitar made by a legendary master builder might appreciate after the builder retires.

Of course, every manufacturer has eras that are considered more desirable whether it be because of rarity, or perceived quality/company founder involvement: Tobias-era MTD, pre-CBS Fender, pre-factory PRS etc. Not sure how contemporary Fender basses could achieve such a mythological status.

 

[jd56hawk]

I've only been playing for ten years but I've never bought a bass because some day it might be worth more than I paid for it.

 

[P. Aaron]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

If your friend (or anyone else) is doing paying gigs with the instrument, it will likely pay itself off anyway. Don't get hung up on retail values, get hung up on solving musical passages.

Most USA made Fenders/etc., enjoy some sort of value-hold over long periods. They are valued more than their foreign built counterparts w/o regard to the truly 'better' bass. It's always been that way. Especially the more original the bass is. Playing wear can add mojo-look, desirability.

 

[G On Bass]

If your buddy is more interested in trying to eventually make money re-selling a common, mass-produced bass in 10-20 years, he might be better off buying a MIM and spending the difference on physical gold or laddering CDs for 10-20 years.

 

[buldog5151bass]

Fender keeps making more identical instruments. Pre CBS will likely keep appreciating. Early CBS less so. I can't see ANY reason for later instruments to appreciate. Better to put your money in a CD if you honestly hope for an "investment ".

Lots of people lying to themselves to justify GAS.

 

[dalkowski]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

Yes, it'll be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. The same money invested with a little thought will be worth more, quite possibly much more.

Purchasing a musical instrument as an "investment" is fool's errand. I hope your frlend enjoys making music with his purchase.

 

[Gorn]

Do any Fenders from the last several decades sell for more today, adjusted for inflation, than they did when they were new?

 

[Not Again]

Do any Fenders from the last several decades sell for more today, adjusted for inflation, than they did when they were new?

Yes.

 

[Relsom]

I'm not even going to pretend to involve myself in the vintage Fender market. I have a few modern models strictly as players. I dig the first era of American Deluxe Jazzes strictly as players due to the smaller bodies. A guy I bought a Kubicki from offered to sell me his mid 60s Ps and Js if I made him an offer. I declined to even let him crack the cases open for me. Sorry, out of my league. I told him to contact Gruhn or Elderly.

 

[lug]

Do any Fenders from the last several decades sell for more today, adjusted for inflation, than they did when they were new?

Some more rare Fenders do. My Pawnshop Jag and original Jaguar are worth more than I paid for them even factoring inflation.

 

[Aaron D]

people that buy basses and 6 string short scale piccolo basses (see what I did there) as investments annoy me! Stringed instruments should be bought to be played! Now he'll spend more time worrying about scratches and finger prints more than the music! I've had a couple modern models increase in value..my squier Mb4 when I got it for 100$ you could barely even give them away because of the skull graphics...now I see their going for 300 and even more,,highest I saw was 700$ for a beginner bass that veteran players liked and started wanting hence the increased value..just buying an axe because of its name hoping it increases in value is just absurd...enjoy it..PLAY IT..THROW IT ACROSS THE STAGE AT YOUR EGOTISTICAL LEAD GUITAR PLAYER ..if it's a fender it won't break but you'll have a cool story to tell rather than taking a chance on making a buck in a niche market!

 

[Rabidhamster]

“Something” is accurate, 10-20 year old guitars are all worth “something”

 

[Killing Floor]

This is a tricky subject.

Let’s ask it a different way, keep up.

Would a Coca-Cola bottle made today be worth a lot of money in 50 years?

Would an Esso gas sign made today be collected and auctioned in 50 years?

Would a 2023 juke box be worth a fortune in 2070?

Probably not.
Why?
Answer to all 3 above is the generation who had a nostalgic bond with those items will have passed.
Pains you to read it more than it pains me to type it. But in 20 years nobody alive cares that Leo created the P and J and S and T because the generation that is bonded by the birth and impact of rock’n’roll will be gone.
Same reason you don’t spend your Saturdays hunting for old wagon wheels or Fiestaware. That was grandma’s thing.

Also, just as a numbers game, Fender just canceled over forecasted production orders for nearly 600,000 instruments. Divide that any way you want to guess MiA P basses. It’s still going to give you a hint because that was roughly 1/7 annual goal. They make so many and like it or not, they are commodities.

Worst of all, the competition like Yamaha, Ibanez to name a couple is growing rapidly too.

That’s not to suggest kids won’t care about guitars. Just that 20-30-50 years from now the kids that are in middle school TODAY don’t care AT ALL what bass James Jamerson played. And they don’t care what Eric Clapton played. Now stretch that loss of interest in player’s gear from 60 years ago out another 30-50 years.

DOES ANYONE HERE KNOW WILLIAM FODEN? Let alone what he played?
But bet your bee-hind they knew in 1910. And bet people in 1940 wanted what he used.

 

[DirtDog]

An acquaintance just purchased an American Pro 2 Jazz. One of the reasons he purchased it he said an American Fender would be worth something 10 to 20 years down the road. I know there are tons of variables but I am also ignorant of these things. What do you all think?

If he really believed in the elevated future value in terms of investment, he should buy a few dozen of them. Or hundreds.

 

[Aaron D]

This is a tricky subject.

Let’s ask it a different way, keep up.

Would a Coca-Cola bottle made today be worth a lot of money in 50 years?

Would an Esso gas sign made today be collected and auctioned in 50 years?

Would a 2023 juke box be worth a fortune in 2070?

Probably not.
Why?
Answer to all 3 above is the generation who had a nostalgic bond with those items will have passed.
Pains you to read it more than it pains me to type it. But in 20 years nobody alive cares that Leo created the P and J and S and T because the generation that is bonded by the birth and impact of rock’n’roll will be gone.
Same reason you don’t spend your Saturdays hunting for old wagon wheels or Fiestaware. That was grandma’s thing.

Also, just as a numbers game, Fender just canceled over forecasted production orders for nearly 600,000 instruments. Divide that any way you want to guess MiA P basses. It’s still going to give you a hint because that was roughly 1/7 annual goal. They make so many and like it or not, they are commodities.

Worst of all, the competition like Yamaha, Ibanez to name a couple is growing rapidly too.

That’s not to suggest kids won’t care about guitars. Just that 20-30-50 years from now the kids that are in middle school TODAY don’t care AT ALL what bass James Jamerson played. And they don’t care what Eric Clapton played. Now stretch that loss of interest in player’s gear from 60 years ago out another 30-50 years.

DOES ANYONE HERE KNOW WILLIAM FODEN? Let alone what he played?
But bet your bee-hind they knew in 1910. And bet people in 1940 wanted what he used.

WELL SAID!

 

[Matt O]

Do any Fenders from the last several decades sell for more today, adjusted for inflation, than they did when they were new?

A few, but not many. One example is Fullerton AVRI reissues of the early 80s. They tend to sell for a bit more than original price when adjusted for inflation, but not all that much more.

An AVRI ‘62 P bass was $845 in 1983, that’s about $2600 in 2023 dollars. I see them selling for $2500 - $4000 depending on condition. Pretty crappy return on a 40 year investment if you ask me.

 

[Fynn]

I'm no expert when it comes to these sort of things at all, but I think these are not gonna be worth very much in the future. Part of the reason those old Fenders are so expensive, is because that's when they started making these, and people like to believe that the old ways of making these instruments were better, or atleast gave the instrument more individuality. Plus they didn't produce nearly as many of these instruments as they do nowadays.
I don't think a Ferrari 458 Italia is ever gonna cost as much as a F40. Too many around, not that special, not as iconic as those older Ferraris.

Maybe if he kept it mint and stock for all this time, barely playing it, keeping every bit of certification you would have, maybe then it would have some sort of collector value in the future. But I doubt even that would be anywhere close where those early vintage Fenders are at now.

So unless it's a really special rare item, it's in almost factory new condition, or it's from an iconic era, I wouldn't get my hopes up.