OP, I can't offer direct advice, but only my own experience that you can add to your back-burner data archives in your brain. So take them for what they're worth - and I'm sure that the situation at the company I used to work for was far different than yours, but neither of us had all the info or float in circles that would.
I worked for an insurance company for 10 years. I started right after it was acquired from a failing company and the headquarters were relocated to my area. I was able to grow and occupy three different roles in this company, and the people on the floor were great.
During this time I watched the company restructure it's front end (insurance products, pricing tiers, etc.). When those methods stopped producing results, they turned to back-end reorganization - such as consolidating departments, shutting down unprofitable areas and/or reducing them and placing them under other areas, etc. This lead to some layoffs in remote locations, but not local to me.
When those methods were exhausted, they turned to more aggressive risk reduction measures (reducing insurance exposure in high-risk areas, trying to expand in lower risk areas of the country, etc.) They assured us that our jobs were safe.
Then layoffs started. I came back from a lunch to find that about 20 of my counterparts were gone - walked out the door. This continued for 2-3 years in several areas of the company, including the closure of more remote sites. At just before the 10 year mark, they announced an outsourcing agreement with an off-shore company. 55 people were given a 90-day notice, 20 of us were retained by the new company.
At my last town hall meeting, ALL of the company top brass were new except one - over the years they had all jumped ship. That was a glaring red flag for me. Now, there is a lot more I could share but time and typing would not suffice - however, I did learn that I should never be more committed to a company than they are to me, and I no longer refuse to look at opportunities when they present themselves (I can always say 'no').
That's not to say that longevity at a company isn't valuable - although I fixed my income discrepancy without them (I tried to work with them but that's another potential thread) the greatest thing I lost was the rapport I had built for over a decade. It's hard to get that back!
Now I'm with a state-chartered company that cannot be sold (not to say the governor won't dissolve us, but who knows?) and I no longer fear being outsourced (changes like that are very political and would be publicly visible). So I feel I'm in a pretty safe place now, with good benefits, a great team, etc. so it would take a LOT to get me to leave here.
I guess you have to take into consideration your family's needs, the risks involved, etc. which I'm sure you have. Leverage that against your long-term outlook where you are. I hope you make the best decision for your life.
Best wishes,
Eric Rasmussen