In my view, there is a Collector market and a Player market.
From that perspective, I highly doubt the broader collector market will ever shift away from Fender. Fender basses define vintage value for NON-PLAYING collectors. Nothing can displace that, simply because doing so would require rewriting history. Ain’t never going to happen.
The Player market continues to evolve with our culture and music. I’m personally more concerned about the growing generational gaps in general interest in live popular music, than about the instruments that are getting used. For now, our society is glued to their electronic devices for socializing. I have zero good to say about this concept. The internet is mainly well suited to getting information. Socializing into a phone or iPad ….. well, I don’t do it AT ALL. But, that’s me.
That said, that e-device dynamic is entrenched and continuing to evolve and dominate. My Beatles on Ed Sullivan moment has turned into whatever the drivel is that the grand kids are watching on their pads in the restaurants. Yes, large venue concerts get attended. But, the fall off in local club live music interest has been profound. And there are consequences for the tools that get that job done. As that trend continues, I think it is fair to ask whether live music in local clubs will still happen to any significant extent, say 20 years from now. It is certainly a LOT cheaper for a club to hire a person with a computer than 4 musicians.
Don’t get me wrong; there are some fine instruments being made. We all benefit from it. But, I’ve been taking a hard look at what kinds of instruments are useful for the gigs that are available. Increasingly, the patrons have more gray in their hair, and want to hear faithful renditions of Classic radio play fare. And most of that stuff was played on Fenders. Jazz gigs have become…less common. Big Band gigs are nearly non-existent. So, I think the market for the Tobias / Smith / Alembic etc instruments has really shrunk. I mean, I can certainly play my Series I on my cover gigs; but, no one is paying much attention and my fellow musicians tend to want to hear Fender sounds, not some more sophisticated voicing.
Just my $0.019.