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Amazon Prime Air

#43
Stewie26 said:
True...but you would have UPS and Fed-X, plus others, on the other side of the fence in Washington.
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First - Amazon is not in the 'stuff' business - they are in the content-delivery business. They sell their spiffy Kindles at a loss because they facilitate the delivery of content.

So Amazon may 'help' develop (i.e. fund commercialization of available if esoteric technology) but if they wanted to be in the delivery business competing with UPS, USPS, and FedEx, you'd see Amazon trucks on the streets now.

Thus, I expect that in the far-future scenario all this presumes, Amazon would 'partner' with an existing package-delivery firm with an exclusive for some period of time.

I have seen demos of semi-autonomous unmanned aircraft flying in formation, able to avoid each other and stationary obstacles. Google has obtained operating permits for driverless road vehicles. Flying fixed routes through major arteries with (mostly) known fixed obstacles such as powerlines, street signals, and trees is IMO achievable with existing technology.

The challenge is, as has been stated, licensing issues from various federal agencies not least of which is the EPA and DOT because while general aviation aircraft use leaded AvGas, you can bet new air vehicles, especially those to be produced in volumes, will need unleaded fuels and catalytic convertors (heavy) or "clean" fuels like hydrogen (low energy density).

As Amazon intended with their whacky publicity event, much media frenzy has been created at the height of the holiday marketing season, and it is already being treated as if it is real. Saw an article questioning if the Amazon 'announcement' sounded the death knell to FedEx and UPS.

It ain't real now, and won't be for a long time.

I have no doubt the big players, having seen the Star Wars movies a zillion times, with the free-flowing streams of small and large unmanned vehicles, have it on their long-term radar (or lidar - or suitably advanced sensor technology...)

Some aspects of 'the future' have arrived with relative suddenness, but most creep in until we're already familiar by the time they're indispensible...
 
#45
michael_atw said:
These dreams have been popping up since industrialists and innovators have found a communication medium.

It's nonsense and the media is trumpeting it to the hilt. Guess it's a slow news week.
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You sound like my father, bah humbugging everything. There is a reason that the innovator in question, had the vision to found Amazon and you and I are posting on Talkbass. Perhaps the concept is before its time, but there is nothing nonsense about it. Some people do, while others are eternal pessimists.
 
#47
3234718 said:
I was thinking the same thing. What prevents someone from grabbing the thing before it takes off and keeping it? I'm sure there's a gps but someone could probably take that out real quick and then they have their own drone. They're not gonna know you took it. Who's to say a gang of rabble rousing youths didn't run up and grab it
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If Amazon is smart they'll put cameras on the drone, and that along with having a GPS location at the time it goes down should be enough. If they can catch kids who point a laser pointer at an airplane, this shouldn't be a problem.

skychief said:
Also, Trees, electrical/telephone cables, antennae, and other miscellaneous hazards might present a problem for these drones.
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Surely if they can find a suitable landing spot, they must have some kind of awareness? I'm not sure how these drones work. They're also supposed to fly at 200 feet so cables wouldn't be a problem.
 
#50
tastybasslines said:
You sound like my father, bah humbugging everything. There is a reason that the innovator in question, had the vision to found Amazon and you and I are posting on Talkbass. Perhaps the concept is before its time, but there is nothing nonsense about it. Some people do, while others are eternal pessimists.
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I could hash up the endless number of ideas that business people have had for generations but it would take a book to cover them all.

It's not feasible or efficient in real world scenarios. That doesn't make me pessimistic - it makes me realistic. Time won't make any difference. We'll be holographically transporting items before this is a reasonable alternative, IMO.
 
#52
michael_atw said:
I could hash up the endless number of ideas that business people have had for generations but it would take a book to cover them all.

It's not feasible or efficient in real world scenarios. That doesn't make me pessimistic - it makes me realistic. Time won't make any difference. We'll be holographically transporting items before this is a reasonable alternative, IMO.
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packages less than 5lbs within a 10 mile radius of the fulfillment center, delivered within 30 minutes.. its a super niche market that will carry a high price tag. it's not going to be an army of drones traveling the world over.
 
#57
Unrepresented said:
They also figured we'd have colonized Mars, had household robots to serve us, and lest ye forget, jet packs!
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Mars: More budgetary than technical, especially once you factor in "Why, exactly?" Hubble telescope (big specialized robot) doing deep-space imaging from Earth orbit pretty well...

Household robots: Had a Roomba for a while - not ready for prime time. Navigating back to the charger is cool; emptying its own bin is essential - not there yet. I've seen Asimo do some pretty amazing things - still creepy tho... And back to energy density issues, which is why electric cars are still in their infancy (again).

Jet Packs: And now we're back to private navigation in controlled airspace again ;-)

I worked in AI for a while, supporting expert systems. Most people who saw them - and they did really cool stuff - were severely underwhelmed. They were expecting HAL.
 
#58
I think if you look at certain neighborhoods like where my folks live back east, 1-4 acre lawns, no overhead wires, it could easily navigate to the front door/porch....assuming nobody hears my father yelling "GET OFF MY LAWN, I KNOW IT'S YOU HILLARY!" with the model 887 in hand. (Not a political reference but rather a fictional choice of a name for the story)

It's a long way off, but honestly Brown/Purple drivers will have more work to do as the online volumes are only growing. Brick and mortar retailers are downsizing square footage so commercial real estate might have the biggest challenge staying afloat....you are already seeing smaller Office Depots, Staples, Gap, Best Buy, etc. Landlords are aggressively seeking restaurants...not retailers. Retailers are bringing back smaller catalog stores with only the top 20% of their fast moving products on the shelves. More online ordering kiosk's in retail stores, smaller hybrids with little trunk space, more deliveries.

Drones...not for awhile, and by then I'll have a high powered hose nozzle to test out. Oops, was just splashing my kids and I accidentally...

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#59
ArtechnikA said:
Mars: More budgetary than technical, especially once you factor in "Why, exactly?" Hubble telescope (big specialized robot) doing deep-space imaging from Earth orbit pretty well...

Household robots: Had a Roomba for a while - not ready for prime time. Navigating back to the charger is cool; emptying its own bin is essential - not there yet. I've seen Asimo do some pretty amazing things - still creepy tho... And back to energy density issues, which is why electric cars are still in their infancy (again).

Jet Packs: And now we're back to private navigation in controlled airspace again ;-)

I worked in AI for a while, supporting expert systems. Most people who saw them - and they did really cool stuff - were severely underwhelmed. They were expecting HAL.
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I would like to think that ultimately everything comes largely down to budget issues.;)
 

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