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Bitcoin / Litecoin / Ethereum / alts discussion

What are you in?

  • Bitcoin

    Votes: 5 12.2%

  • Litecoin

    Votes: 5 12.2%

  • Ethereum

    Votes: 6 14.6%

  • Alts

    Votes: 2 4.9%

  • Nothing

    Votes: 19 46.3%

  • Carrots

    Votes: 15 36.6%
  • Total voters
    41
#182
I think one reason the stock market goes up up up over time is because it is the big casino. Vegas.

But an emerging vehicle such as this crypto coin could be like riverboat and indian casinos soon, i.e., a threat to the big boys.

Tulip or new currency? That is the bet...fascinating.
 
#184
Son of Wobble said:
I think one reason the stock market goes up up up over time is because it is the big casino. Vegas.

But an emerging vehicle such as this crypto coin could be like riverboat and indian casinos soon, i.e., a threat to the big boys.

Tulip or new currency? That is the bet...fascinating.
Click to expand...
Currency must function as a medium of exchange. In this BC fails.
 
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#187
guys, just think of it as a gamble / game. don't make it into your daytime job. I know guys that did this and they all burned out in less than 8 years. Most of them became dirt poor after they gambled everything away.

The trick is to make a little bit money all the time and lose very little, if not any. Don't go for all the marbles. People take investments way too seriously.
 
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#188
Whippet said:
guys, just think of it as a gamble / game. don't make it into your daytime job. I know guys that did this and they all burned out in less than 8 years. Most of them became dirt poor after they gambled everything away.

The trick is to make a little bit money all the time and lose very little, if not any. Don't go for all the marbles. People take investments way too seriously.
Click to expand...

"Never bet more than you can afford to lose."
 
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#190
Whippet said:
Just take the average. It's something like 3 years if I remember correctly. Just go by that. The problem arises when people think that the market will push higher and higher. If you don't chase the bubble till the very end, practically anyone can make money in it.
Click to expand...

Taking the average gives you the length of the average bubble, but not any specific one, so isn't very useful.
 
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#192
Whippet said:
what I am trying to say is this: long story short, you don't have enough data so you use old data from other bubbles. Make educated guesses. Burn brighter and shorter, now this is the law of nature. You figure it has had a meteoric rise. So just take that into consideration and invest not only in crypto but in other areas. And always have dry powder in your keg because bubbles in investment happens pretty frequently.

Saxon bank makes yearly predictions and these guys, although not that accurate all the time is predicting that bitcoin will reach 60,000 and then crash to 1000 because of government intervention.

Their prediction for the JPY is 150 then crashing to 100. Part of this prediction goes hand in hand with other cyclical analysis that I read. And I am reading paid news. Not some cheap ones but expensive ones that people count on to make lots of money.

Saxon may not be too far off or totally crazy, they make money through investments. If bitcoin goes up , so will the attack of the hackers. Electricity consumption will go up and eco warriors will start to raise serious concerns, as well as governments around the world. All this and many more issues could be brought up that might force governments to intervene.

For now as many others have stated, it can not be treated as a currency. More like digital gold. It is just too volatile. Keeping that in mind, it is a gamble. For now its too dangerous to be considered a currency. so take it as that. Many haters of crypto don't understand anything about crypto and blockchain. Treat it as any investment and you don't have to worry if its in a bubble or not.
Click to expand...

Bubbles collapse without government intervention, so a conspiracy of government intervention isn't required. In the UK property is arguably still a bubble, but propped UP by government intervention (which will probably get more desperate to do so with Brexit, despite rhetoric about building more homes).
 
#195
Whippet said:
I just realized, if you can not specify the average length of the bubble, in essence you are saying that it is not even a bubble since you can not even recognize it as a bubble?
Click to expand...

No, I am saying the average of an average bubble is not necessarily a guide to the length of any particular one. I'd suggest median rather than average anyway, and it is something you could measure, but you'd maybe want to restrict things to a sufficient size for comparison
 
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#198
Another reason not to use the average is that it's only really useful if the distribution is Gaussian, and you quote some measure of variance. You can have bimodal distributions, for example, which may be a case of having grouped together apples and oranges, and then trying to compare them. In this sense using machine learning can be useful as a first pass, to characterise the distribution, or just use traditional statistical techniques. (My professional background is in machine learning).
 
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#200
On the other hand, Mauldin Economics coin desk does have a chart, which I can not locate, that says that bitcoin crashes once every quarter from 2013, up to date.

But somehow emerges like the phoenix, out of the crash.
 

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