Get off my LAWN! "Grumpy Old Farts"

[GwenOnBass]

Stevie Nicks was known for her shawls.

A Look at Stevie Nicks's Legendary Shawls

Woo. GOF rock star! Macramé!

 

[Jeff Scott]

I an Ohio person. More accurately, I am a 51st State person - SE Ohio. Cincinnati and the surrounding counties are very different than the rest of the state.

I recall Cincinnati and the surrounding counties to be in SW Ohio.

I also remember that in the mid '70s there wasn't a whole lot of snow but there were many days (weeks) of -20-something- ºF, on end.

 

[Jeff Scott]

Should any wonder is it possible to play bass while wearing a shawl? the answer is yes.

I'll stick with my cape, but thanks.

I was going to mention Chris Squire, but you, Charlie, came to mind first, for some strange reason.

Stevie Nicks was known for her shawls.

A Look at Stevie Nicks's Legendary Shawls

Woo. GOF rock star! Macramé!

I've seen some of her (GOF) shawls. They are in the Rock and Roll Attic Hall.

 

[12BitSlab]

I recall Cincinnati and the surrounding counties to be in SW Ohio.

I also remember that in the mid '70s there wasn't a whole lot of snow but there were many days (weeks) of -20-something- ºF, on end.

If one is underground, then Hamilton County would indeed be SE. Of course, I am not underground. I'm just a very poor typist!

You're right about the snow. We get a heavy snow season about once every 20 years and the gub'ment isn't ready for it. We do get temperature extremes. Within a single year, I've seen temperatures range from 25 below to 105. People wonder why our roads don't last! Duh!!!!

 

[biguglyman]

Band rehearsals were skipped this week. There has been an explosion of covid cases in my department at work. Since the grandkids were scheduled for this weekend, I decided to have a covid test done and put rehearsals on hold pending the results. Test came back negative so grandkids are on for this weekend and rehearsals for next week.

 

[beans-on-toast]

Today is Friday the 13th. Just sayin'.

 

[Chubby Fingers]

Today is Friday the 13th. Just sayin'.

I shall avoid carrying ladders under black cats today then...

 

[GwenOnBass]

I'd last about a minute in a world where all superstitions are true. If that.

 

[beans-on-toast]

Covid is soaring in the region, almost 1400 new reported cases in the last day. Schools are a hotbed of infections. Not too long ago, doctors were saying that kids were low risk. Things have changed. When a student or teacher is infected, the entire class has to isolate at home for two weeks. Today 1200 classes are closed, over 300 were in the last two days. They are talking about temporarily shutting schools down again. Since the school year started, the last three grades attend every other day, the home days are done online.

A family member is retiring from teaching in two weeks. Nothing to do with covid but good timing.


Last thing that anyone wants is to be infected on Friday the 13th. I find that I'm wearing a mask more when outdoors. I have alcohol in a spritz bottle and spray the paper mask inside and out whenever I come in. That way I can reuse them.

 

[beans-on-toast]

I'd last about a minute in a world where all superstitions are true. If that.

Some superstitions are simply words of wisdom and good to live by.

I know that if I buy a lottery ticket today, I'm not going to win. When I do buy one, I'm susperstitious in that I want a ticket out of the machine. Some retailers apparently try to pawn off preprinted tickets. Fraud comes to mind.

A neighbout in his 40's recently won a big jackpot. He lived with his mom, never had a job. He bought tickets multiple times a week for different games, I learnt to never get in line behind him as he was there for a long time. He told me that he was superstitious and would make a special trip to the pharmacy in the last hour before sales closed.

 

[GwenOnBass]

Vegas regularly defeats the best psychics!

 

[beans-on-toast]

Vegas regularly defeats the best psychics!

A family member got married in Vegas. It was planned. I suppose that their subsequent divorce a few years later wasn't. Vegas wasn't very lucky for them.

 

[Chubby Fingers]

Not too long ago, doctors were saying that kids were low risk.

Engineers define risk as probability multiplied by consequence. Sometimes we use Dollars, sometimes fatalities.

The "risk" of a light bulb going out in a refinery control room is low because although the probability is high (light bulbs in continuous use might last a year or two), the consequence is trivial (the cost of installing a new lightbulb) and we can mitigate it further by having multiple light sources, even standby generators if vital.

The "risk" of, say, a pipe off a refinery reactor vessel bursting could be "high" because although with proper design the probability is low, the consequence (e.g. the refinery blowing up) is high - hundreds of millions of Dollars and tens maybe hundreds of fatalities. We mitigate those risks by proper design, regular inspections, keeping personnel numbers as low as reasonably practicable, and when possible building refineries away from population centers, not on Main Street.

The "risk" associated with kids catching COVID is considered "low" because the probability, which is perhaps moderate to high, when multiplied by the consequence, which, with for whatever reasons kids generally being able to shake off the disease with no long term harm, is low. 90 odd percent of C-19 deaths being in the over 65 age group and / or amongst those with serious pre-existing conditions.

Indeed, some might argue kids being exposed to the disease might accelerate "herd immunity" as both their kids and their presumably mostly young, fit and able parents, easily shrug off the disease.

The counter-argument, of course, is what happens if "little Johnny" gives the disease to teacher or comes home with the disease and gives it to granny.

I take no side in either direction BTW.

 

[GwenOnBass]

Engineers define risk as probability multiplied by consequence. Sometimes we use Dollars, sometimes fatalities.

The "risk" of a light bulb going out in a refinery control room is low because although the probability is high (light bulbs in continuous use might last a year or two), the consequence is trivial (the cost of installing a new lightbulb) and we can mitigate it further by having multiple light sources, even standby generators if vital.

The "risk" of, say, a pipe off a refinery reactor vessel bursting could be "high" because although with proper design the probability is low, the consequence (e.g. the refinery blowing up) is high - hundreds of millions of Dollars and tens maybe hundreds of fatalities. We mitigate those risks by proper design, regular inspections, keeping personnel numbers as low as reasonably practicable, and when possible building refineries away from population centers, not on Main Street.

The "risk" associated with kids catching COVID is considered "low" because the probability, which is perhaps moderate to high, when multiplied by the consequence, which, with for whatever reasons kids generally being able to shake off the disease with no long term harm, is low. 90 odd percent of C-19 deaths being in the over 65 age group and / or amongst those with serious pre-existing conditions.

Indeed, some might argue kids being exposed to the disease might accelerate "herd immunity" as both their kids and their presumably mostly young, fit and able parents, easily shrug off the disease.

The counter-argument, of course, is what happens if "little Johnny" gives the disease to teacher or comes home with the disease and gives it to granny.

I take no side in either direction BTW.

Statistical analysis says

 

[Chubby Fingers]

We design oil installations for a 0.0001 or 0.01 percent or once in ten thousand years probability of catastrophic failure or one fatality, by the way.
C-19 has currently infected about 1% of the US population and with a 2% fatality rate thats 0.01 x 0.02 = 0.0002 or 0.02%.
In Texas about 3500 out of 30million get killed on the roads every year. That's 0.001 or 0.01%

 

[beans-on-toast]

Engineers define risk as probability multiplied by consequence. Sometimes we use Dollars, sometimes fatalities.

The "risk" of a light bulb going out in a refinery control room is low because although the probability is high (light bulbs in continuous use might last a year or two), the consequence is trivial (the cost of installing a new lightbulb) and we can mitigate it further by having multiple light sources, even standby generators if vital.

The "risk" of, say, a pipe off a refinery reactor vessel bursting could be "high" because although with proper design the probability is low, the consequence (e.g. the refinery blowing up) is high - hundreds of millions of Dollars and tens maybe hundreds of fatalities. We mitigate those risks by proper design, regular inspections, keeping personnel numbers as low as reasonably practicable, and when possible building refineries away from population centers, not on Main Street.

The "risk" associated with kids catching COVID is considered "low" because the probability, which is perhaps moderate to high, when multiplied by the consequence, which, with for whatever reasons kids generally being able to shake off the disease with no long term harm, is low. 90 odd percent of C-19 deaths being in the over 65 age group and / or amongst those with serious pre-existing conditions.

Indeed, some might argue kids being exposed to the disease might accelerate "herd immunity" as both their kids and their presumably mostly young, fit and able parents, easily shrug off the disease.

The counter-argument, of course, is what happens if "little Johnny" gives the disease to teacher or comes home with the disease and gives it to granny.

I take no side in either direction BTW.

Recent studies have determined that covid anti-bodies are short lived. There apparently is no long term immunity once you have had it. Then again covid is always mutating to be even more virulent. A vaccine today will be effective. In a year they'll have another vaccine that will deal with the current strains. Just like the flu shot. Unlike polio which was a single vaccine.

You gotta love engineering. Unfortunately, despite best efforts, things still happen. Bean counters which set limits on proper engineering, set boundaries. They are never blamed for the consequences. Nobody ever want to admit that budget got in the way to doing things the way that the engineers wanted. Yin and yang.

 

[beans-on-toast]

Statistical analysis says

View attachment 4051809​

Outliers always haunt the population.

 

[beans-on-toast]

We design oil installations for a 0.0001 or 0.01 percent or once in ten thousand years probability of catastrophic failure or one fatality, by the way.
C-19 has currently infected about 1% of the US population and with a 2% fatality rate thats 0.01 x 0.02 = 0.0002 or 0.02%.
In Texas about 3500 out of 30million get killed on the roads every year. That's 0.001 or 0.01%

Despite the low statics, inordinate funding has gone into fighting it. Lives have been turned upside down. It's the unpredictable nature of the disease that has everyone scrambling. statistics that are valid today won't be tomorrow. The fear that the right virus can wipe out the entire human population causes a lot of anxiety.

 

[spiritbass]

It sure has been an unusual and bizarre year and the theme is continuing. My next younger brother's sweet wife is currently dying a horrible death from prion encephalopathy. The chances of contracting this disease are literally one in a million or more. It is contracted from contact with blood carrying the infection. In deer, it is known as chronic wasting disease (bovine version is mad cow disease). Hers is the first known case in Missouri. Some distinction. The most probable cause was being bitten by a deer tick carrying infected blood. I can't think of anyone less deserving of being taken out of life like this...

 

[beans-on-toast]

It sure has been an unusual and bizarre year and the theme is continuing. My next younger brother's sweet wife is currently dying a horrible death from prion encephalopathy. The chances of contracting this disease are literally one in a million or more. It is contracted from contact with blood carrying the infection. In deer, it is known as chronic wasting disease (bovine version is mad cow disease). Hers is the first known case in Missouri. Some distinction. The most probable cause was being bitten by a deer tick carrying infected blood. I can't think of anyone less deserving of being taken out of life like this...

My deepest sympathy to you everyone she touches.