Gulf oil spill. Help me understand.

[RWP]

well, we do not have the technology to be 100% fool proof with -anything- at 2+ tons per square inch pressure. that's just the way it is. until material's science catches up with doc manhattan, that's not going to change, either.

to be honest, though, engineering is not about 100% fool proof, not the vast majority of it. diminishing returns plays a huge part in most engineering designs. your car is not 100% fool proof, and your life is dependant on it. would you have paid 10x as much for a similar vehicle that might have halved the "error region" in your car's design? that's what you're looking at, after all. i would imagine it's the same thing here - requisite massive outlay of funds for just a few percentage points, or fractions thereof, increase in reliability.

All good points and I do understand fault tolerant designs. It's just that this disaster sucks from so many angles.

Clearly, you are not an engineer. As such, you may be out of your depth in this aspect of the discussion.

Am not...

 

[RWP]

A few things to ponder:

--Oil has a tendency to spill, polluting the water, and it adds to atmospheric CO2

--Coal is dangerous to mine and it pollutes the air and adds to atmospheric CO2

--All refined fossil fuels pollute the air and water to some extent and add to atmospheric CO2

--Nuclear power creates radioactive waste that remains toxic for thousands of years and can be made into nuclear weapons

--Alcohol and other renewable fuels are prohibitively expensive to produce in great quantities at our current level of technology

--Solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric and other "green" technologies aren't capable of providing enough power for our modern needs




The bottom line is there is no good solution to our energy problems. We can only pick and choose among numerous imperfect alternatives and do our best to deal with the inevitable consequences.

I understand we only a few hundred years away from fusion!

 

[MatticusMania]

The Tommyknockers powered everything with D cells, now if only we could find that damned ship!

 

[hbarcat]

I understand we only a few hundred years away from fusion!

 

[bassrique]

Our biggest imports:

Canada - ~2.6 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia - ~1.4 million bpd.
Mexico - ~1.4 million bpd.
Venezuela - ~1.4 million bpd.
Algeria - ~.72 million bpd.
Iraq - ~.58 million bpd.
Angola - ~.55 million bpd.
Nigeria - ~.5 million bpd.
Russia - ~.5 million bpd.

All in italics basically hate us.

Oil imported from OPEC:

Algeria - .72 million bpd.
Angola - .55 million bpd.
Ecuador - .28 million bpd.
Iraq - .57 million bpd.
Nigeria - .5 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia - 1.4 million bpd.
Venezuela - 1.4 million bpd.

Total: 5.4 million barrels per day.

Total minus Venezuela: 4 million barrels per day.

Maximum estimated increase given all possible oil production: ~1.5 million barrels per day (15 years from now).

1.5 million <<<<<< 4 million.

Those numbers look about right IIRC -- except for what we can produce domestically in AK, both OCS, and the Eastern Gulf. Add natural gas into the mix and we can likely rid ourselves of OPEC [even with Chavez]. We could likely do this in less than 15 years if we were to start soon, but I also wish for Scarlett Johansson to knock on my door tonight and wisk me away to Hawaii for a romp in the surf.

 

[john turner]

All good points and I do understand fault tolerant designs. It's just that this disaster sucks from so many angles.

you'll get no argument from me there. .

 

[Johnny Crab]

Been working in petrochem instrumentation & control systems for 20+ years.
One question comes to mind:

Does a BOP require periodic testing and documentation like petrochem ESD systems/SIS do?

BP does have a very-tarnished safety record. It will be interesting when/if the maintenance logs are examined.

 

[fdeck]

well, we do not have the technology to be 100% fool proof with -anything- at 2+ tons per square inch pressure. that's just the way it is. until material's science catches up with doc manhattan, that's not going to change, either.

I'm not getting this. Says who? Lots of stuff is designed to operate at 4000 psi. The tensile strength of steel can be upwards of 100000 psi, and its bulk modulus is 30 million psi.

I'm not saying that the BOP was correctly designed, but I don't think it is beyond the state of the art of engineering to design one that works.

 

[Komakino]

Most of our imported oil is from Canada and Mexico, and last time I checked, we're friends.

That's not what they're saying behind your back

 

[ADbassman]

That's not what they're saying behind your back

Them and what army?

 

[Komakino]

Them and what army?

The Canadian army! Be afraid, be very afraid!

(Although I should point out they're the only nation to burn the Whitehouse to the ground!)

 

[drteeth]

The Canadian army! Be afraid, be very afraid!

(Although I should point out they're the only nation to burn the Whitehouse to the ground!)

They're coming to get you!

 

[john turner]

I'm not getting this. Says who? Lots of stuff is designed to operate at 4000 psi. The tensile strength of steel can be upwards of 100000 psi, and its bulk modulus is 30 million psi.

and if the only component of the system involved in the automatic shuttoff, or in the subsequent efforts to manually shut the leak off, were pure blobs of steel, then you'd be right. don't think that's the case though, and any system involved is going to be only as strong as its weakest link.

I'm not saying that the BOP was correctly designed, but I don't think it is beyond the state of the art of engineering to design one that works.

and -my- point was that the definiton of "one that works" is what the issue is here. these obviously work "most of the time" since we haven't gotten headline news reports of them failing before. i still think that 100% foolproof is going to be very difficult to achieve in that harsh an environment. it's hard enough to get anything to work 100% in 1 atmosphere.

 

[john turner]

The Canadian army! Be afraid, be very afraid!

(Although I should point out they're the only nation to burn the Whitehouse to the ground!)

they weren't a nation then, they were just, as always, a little slow to do what was best for themselves - took em another 50 years to start that ball rolling.

 

[RWP]

Lets assume it's impossible to to make a BOP that will function properly every time there is an issue. What would the cost be to have, as standard practice, a secondary well site that would serve as a relief well in case of an accident like this?

Apparently this is the plan if the BOP can't be activated. PSpookie pointed out that I am not a under sea oil well engineer. Thank God. However, I am a realist and I know there are always ways of mitigating the effects of disasters of this magnitude. We are not talking about a small spill here. This is epic.

 

[aborgman]

Those numbers look about right IIRC -- except for what we can produce domestically in AK, both OCS, and the Eastern Gulf. Add natural gas into the mix and we can likely rid ourselves of OPEC [even with Chavez]. We could likely do this in less than 15 years if we were to start soon, but I also wish for Scarlett Johansson to knock on my door tonight and wisk me away to Hawaii for a romp in the surf.

Biggest estimates for ANWR are 1%-2% increase in total production at peak, ~15 years after work starts... and it's the biggest thing out there.

You're talking about a 50% increase in oil production. 50%.

...and natural gas is great as a fuel, but remember - only about 1/2 of the oil we use goes to fuel uses. The rest goes for chemical and fertilizer manufacture, plastics manufacture, etc.

 

[aborgman]

However, I am a realist and I know there are always ways of mitigating the effects of disasters of this magnitude. We are not talking about a small spill here. This is epic.

Oops... it just got even worse.

"Officials said late Wednesday the estimated amount of oil spewing into the Gulf of Mexico from three underwater leaks after last week's oil rig explosion has increased to as much as 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day -- five times more than what was initially believed."

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/04/29/louisiana.oil.rig/index.html?hpt=T1

 

[Komakino]

they weren't a nation then, they were just, as always, a little slow to do what was best for themselves - took em another 50 years to start that ball rolling.

Yeah, I know... but it was funnier to say the Canadians were responsible. We Brits have a bad enough reputation for destroying things!

 

[bassrique]

Biggest estimates for ANWR are 1%-2% increase in total production at peak, ~15 years after work starts... and it's the biggest thing out there.

You're talking about a 50% increase in oil production. 50%.

...and natural gas is great as a fuel, but remember - only about 1/2 of the oil we use goes to fuel uses. The rest goes for chemical and fertilizer manufacture, plastics manufacture, etc.

ANWR isn't the only new production we can get out of AK. Then there's the vast potential [likely?] of the OCS and East Gulf.

 

[Philbiker]

Clearly, you are not an engineer. As such, you may be out of your depth in this aspect of the discussion.

Understatement of the thread.