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The end of tubes??? Thoughts?

How much do you need? ;)
Nobody in their right mind would invest in it. Soon as the overseas suppliers come back on line, which it's a safe bet they will, your domestic factory shuts down. That's likely to happen before you can even get your first tube out the door. Trying to catch up to a mature industry is a fool's errand.

This happened with COVID masks. The domestic suppliers were recognized as a strategic industry, but couldn't stay in business because nobody would pay their prices.

My hunch is that there's a lot of arcane domain knowledge in making tubes, that has to be learned, the hard way. There's a lot of stuff that falls into gray areas in between the traditional engineering disciplines, meaning that nobody learns it in school, and there are no textbooks on it. For the same reason that nobody will invest in a plant, nobody will invest their career in it either. And you can't modernize the design because then it won't be authentic.
 
Professional violinists around the world are utterly convinced that Stradivarius violins sound better than anything else, and modern instruments can't possibly compete. Wanna guess what happened in blind tests?
https://www.thestrad.com/blind-test...s-violins-from-modern-instruments/994.article
I remember reading about that test, and it struck me as entertaining but barely scientific. And I have no loyalty to Stradivarius. Over the past few decades, musicians have begun to question whether the Strad era instruments are really holding their own against contemporary fiddles, or if they've even begun to deteriorate.
 
Nobody in their right mind would invest in it. Soon as the overseas suppliers come back on line, which it's a safe bet they will, your domestic factory shuts down. That's likely to happen before you can even get your first tube out the door. Trying to catch up to a mature industry is a fool's errand.

This happened with COVID masks. The domestic suppliers were recognized as a strategic industry, but couldn't stay in business because nobody would pay their prices.

My hunch is that there's a lot of arcane domain knowledge in making tubes, that has to be learned, the hard way. There's a lot of stuff that falls into gray areas in between the traditional engineering disciplines, meaning that nobody learns it in school, and there are no textbooks on it. For the same reason that nobody will invest in a plant, nobody will invest their career in it either. And you can't modernize the design because then it won't be authentic.
There's a video of a guy making tubes by hand, and it's an incredibly complex process that I would have had no idea had that much to it or so many ways of it going wrong with one false move. Definitely not something you learn within 5 minutes.
 
and have you driven an ND MX-5 or BRZ? Stupidly smooth shifters & clutches, perfect ratio choices, telepathic steering… IIRC the last generation of Nissan Z would rev-match for you whether you were upshifting or downshifting! I think I heard that the Mustang offered this as well. Speaking of the Mustang, it finally got independent rear suspension! A bit late. I definitely wouldn’t want the hassle of balancing individual throttle bodies on an old Lotus just to go for a drive out to my cousin’s in the sticks or to adjust the valve lash or distributor timing on… anything, ever again. It’s just not that fun anymore.

Lucky for us, there’s very few trying to make an argument for analog, group-created music being bad for the environment. So far. Though it is powered by coal and nuclear and large festivals bring out the inner litterbug in even the kindest of hula dancers..

Bass synth plugins are creating some fantastic tones that make teaching one’s muscles to operate a midi keyboard seem pretty worthwhile. 2lbs laptop and 1.8lbs deck on a 1.5lbs stand plugged into the PA seems pretty nice some nights compared to a 9lbs J tugging on your shoulder.

I’m just being argumentative.

I only like playing keys when they’re making one of five obviously keys sounds: B3, piano, wurly, Rhodes, and buzzsaw synth.
Scratch the Rhodes, add a clavinet with a fuzz, ring mod, oilcan delay, and envelope a la Mark Mothersbaugh from Devo, and that's about my take on keyboards. Oh, and the barking dogs in different pitches. However, that Mellotron was really something for its day. Better than the Arp String Ensemble that manufacturers claim did strings better than the Mellotron...my ass they did!
 
Nothing lasts forever. As a bass player, I gave up on tubes 40 yrs ago when I bought my Peavey Mk 4 head to replace my Sunn 200S. The guitar player I'm playing with these days uses a vintage Gibson 335, and a Bugera SS with a pedal rack you could launch the space shuttle with. He gets some of the best guitar sounds I've ever heard. I do realize that tubes FEEL different than SS. It is all a matter of getting use to how SS reacts to your touch.
 
Nothing lasts forever. As a bass player, I gave up on tubes 40 yrs ago when I bought my Peavey Mk 4 head to replace my Sunn 200S. The guitar player I'm playing with these days uses a vintage Gibson 335, and a Bugera SS with a pedal rack you could launch the space shuttle with. He gets some of the best guitar sounds I've ever heard. I do realize that tubes FEEL different than SS. It is all a matter of getting use to how SS feels.

That's like "getting used to" soy steaks! No thank you! :laugh:
 
Nobody in their right mind would invest in it. Soon as the overseas suppliers come back on line, which it's a safe bet they will, your domestic factory shuts down. That's likely to happen before you can even get your first tube out the door. Trying to catch up to a mature industry is a fool's errand.

This happened with COVID masks. The domestic suppliers were recognized as a strategic industry, but couldn't stay in business because nobody would pay their prices.

My hunch is that there's a lot of arcane domain knowledge in making tubes, that has to be learned, the hard way. There's a lot of stuff that falls into gray areas in between the traditional engineering disciplines, meaning that nobody learns it in school, and there are no textbooks on it. For the same reason that nobody will invest in a plant, nobody will invest their career in it either. And you can't modernize the design because then it won't be authentic.

Indeed. The tech, the factories, the people remaining with the knowledge. Probably the industrial equipment needed to produce them. All living fossils.

Even if you're JJ, do you expand production for a tech that is only used in a few niches to meet a temporary demand? By the time you scaled up an existing operation, the whole thing might be over and you've played yourself.

Like in any industry... clinging to legacy technology will eventually increase your costs dramatically, and usually suddenly.
 
All of those are still niche products/movements.

And currently there are no cars with Wankel engines in production. :)

Yes that's true about no rotary powered cars being produced but there is still a following, culture and engineers "improving" these engines and redesigning them.
The latest design, although small, is rather unique and IMO worth keeping an eye on its development.. All this only confirms my opinion that A: if big business drops these or any other commodity, someone somewhere will pick it up and use it to their advantage and B: what we often believe is out of date, obsolete or superfluous, there will always be somebody that has a use for such technology...
Tunes may fall out of favour for the majority but there will always be those who want them, need them, require them... and that is a market for somebody.
 
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Probably some company in China etc. Well import them from Russia and then sell them to the US under a different name.

And if tubes do someday disappear forever I'm still not worried so long as we still have @agedhorse whose engineering prowess and magical talent for designing great bass amps knows no limits!!
 
Nobody in their right mind would invest in it. Soon as the overseas suppliers come back on line, which it's a safe bet they will, your domestic factory shuts down. That's likely to happen before you can even get your first tube out the door. Trying to catch up to a mature industry is a fool's errand.

This happened with COVID masks. The domestic suppliers were recognized as a strategic industry, but couldn't stay in business because nobody would pay their prices.

My hunch is that there's a lot of arcane domain knowledge in making tubes, that has to be learned, the hard way. There's a lot of stuff that falls into gray areas in between the traditional engineering disciplines, meaning that nobody learns it in school, and there are no textbooks on it. For the same reason that nobody will invest in a plant, nobody will invest their career in it either. And you can't modernize the design because then it won't be authentic.
I work in an industry that has aspects straight out of the Bronze Age and trying to find literature that parallels in any respectable detail anything that I’ve learned on the clock, I was first told by the old timers, and have since learned for myself, is a fool’s errand.

I am curious how many of the old-knowledge carrying Russian workers use the tubes off the clock. They’re elbow deep in making them…

We often have situations where we’re making units straight to the blueprint and well within spec, and eight months after we shipped them out the whole order comes back to be reworked and all we’re told is that some aspect we were initially told wasn’t critical, absolutely was critical and someone (often me) has to go through each part and do some necromancy to hit the new spec. Do I have the mating parts? Nope! Just poke and hope!

And in a company of about 150 people, there’s there’s twelve people who have a vague idea of what I do, but only myself and two of five engineers that have any knowledge of exactly how I do what I do. There’s another twenty or so people who’re in a similar “only a few people here know this stuff” position. We had one guy who definitely is the only one with his knowledge and after he retired, that department has been somewhere between useless and a total drain.

The tube makers know what the brands will accept and what they’ll reject, and they know how to hit that window of good-enough-to-not-get-sent-back. I’m curious what happens with them. I’m curious about the true health of those facilities prior to this year- were they like my company and neglected to apprentice anybody up as those with necessary knowledge died or retired?

The tooling to build them in North America again is surely available. It's probably a matter of whether it becomes financially viable.
“Economical” is the word those who could invest would use. It’s unlikely to be economical to even put up a 100% automated building on US property for most investors for anything hobby related even if the only personnel they brought over were the engineers and project managers.

it would be cool.

…but not so cool that I’m stoked on the idea of paying $650 for a pair of 6L6’s made in Peachtree, though.
 
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I understand how you feel because the amp is an integral part of the electric bass. But, if tubes are no longer available, what choice will you have?
Death, Which after my death seems way more likely for the tube market to run out of tubes entirely than for me to go without them.