Also, since the cones are not flat, just calculating the area of the corresponding circle gives an area that is smaller than the actual surface area of the paper, since the paper is a frustum of a cone.
What's important is not the surface area of the paper, but the volume displacement of the cone and surround per unit linear displacement, which happens to be in units of area. The easiest thing to do is just look up the Sd parameter for the driver, which is an effective area derived from electro-acoustic measurements.
If the driver maker doesn't provide those parameters on their spec sheet, move on to a different manufacturer.
In the process of trying to understand how speakers work, I've formed a few rules of thumb that might be helpful for sorting things out:
1. For any given cone diameter, you can get the same on-axis low frequency response curve (i.e., below 250 Hz) with a different diameter by playing with the other design parameters such as magnetic field.
2. Two systems with roughly equal total cone area (using the Sd parameter) can have roughly equal sensitivity, i.e., you can make a bunch of 1" cones behave like a 15"er
in theory, if you can control all of the design parameters.
3. An array of small cones will have an off-axis response
similar to a large single cone of the same overall width. The added space needed to accommodate the flanges of the smaller drivers will tend to make their off axis performance worse.
4. The ultimate SPL achievable by a speaker depends on its swept volume, i.e.., the product of Xmax and Sd. There have been great strides in making large diameter musical instrument and pro sound woofers with generous Xmax. Not so much for smaller home audio drivers. For this reason, I think that an array of very small drivers is almost guaranteed to produce less SPL than a single big driver of high quality.
After investigating a lot of different possibilities for my own designs, I've come to the conclusion that the highest performance is likely to favor a smaller number of larger cones. If you can get the SPL that you need with a single cone, that's likely to be your best option in terms of technical performance and economy.