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What basses will be worh $$$$ 30+ years from now?
- Thread starter seang15
- Start date
I think we are on the verge of seeing wound pickups becoming a thing of the past. While the Light Wave system has not gained acceptance for a number of reasons (some valid), we have to admit that technology is moving forward. We see it every day, in almost every aspect of our lives. There is no reason to think bass guitars will escape an electronic revolution.
I don't know in 30 years.... but given the total depletion of natural resources, a tree (along with any tool or artifact made out of wood) will be something you only going to find in a museum. Talkbass will talk about "which plastic is better for metal" than the nonsense we fight about ash/mahogany/walnut...
Beyond 30 years, there are projections that tell the total disappearance of bass as an instrument.
Images from the era of Jedi Praxeum (1118 ABY, in StarWar years) clearly show the absence of such instrument, as pictured below
Beyond 30 years, there are projections that tell the total disappearance of bass as an instrument.
Images from the era of Jedi Praxeum (1118 ABY, in StarWar years) clearly show the absence of such instrument, as pictured below
You are talking to a group of people who can't agree that basses with more than 4 strings are acceptable! Bassists are more embracing of technology in amps and cabs, it seems, but VERY provincial regarding the actual instrument.
But I've been wrong before...
Hey folks,
I haven't started a thread in a while. And this got me curious:
What will be "tomorrow's Pre-CBS Fender basses?" We all wish we had a time machine that would take us 30+ years back in the past, so we can buy 1, 10, 50
What would YOU guys buy up at like, say, $500-$1500 range and store for the future? Or perhaps it's the $200-$500 range we should look at? (I know, very likely, a 10 grand Fodera may be worth 50 grand 50 years from now. That's interesting and good information, but "a given.")
Cheers,
Sean
I think most will be basses made by well known builders. I expect a huge price raise in CT basses, for instance.
Honestly, it's kind of a crap shoot. From the number of modded, hacked, and trashed 70's Fenders we see obviously not everyone knew that they would be worth 10x their original unmodded price.
A good bass will be worth a loaf of bread and a chicken!
Under that scenario, that is pretty valuable!
There won't be any basses 30 years from now. Either everything will be sampled and stored on a chip or the Earth will be a lifeless dirt clod with a dust cloud around it. 
It may be that in 50 years, none of them will be worth very much. Maybe a few folks will collect them, but hardly anyone will be playing them. Music will be made by totally different instruments I think. Hopefully, anyway. Hopefully I'll be part of the Borg by then, and can just plug everyone a cable in their head and the music we collectively imagine will come out. And nobody needs to play an instrument :011010110: :we write poetry because we cannot fly: :we build cities because we cannot breath under water:
I think I'm with the doubters in that production numbers are higher now, there is more of a market (people with disposable income), so there will be more availability. basically everyone and their dog will have a variety of basses.
That said, the current trend may continue. The trend is, if it was made in the US and has anything to do with Leo Fender, the instrument's value may plateau at purchase or even appreciate.
Secretly, I hope my German Warwick will be worth oodles...'remember back in the day when they used to make Warwicks in Germany?'
One can hope...
That said, the current trend may continue. The trend is, if it was made in the US and has anything to do with Leo Fender, the instrument's value may plateau at purchase or even appreciate.
Secretly, I hope my German Warwick will be worth oodles...'remember back in the day when they used to make Warwicks in Germany?'
One can hope...
Like it did for pianos, violins and wind instruments?
Pianos, Violins and Wind Instruments have never been mass produced at a level like Basses and Guitars. Demand and supply, for those instruments, have tended to stay in a substantially better balance than the current situation we have with guitars and basses.
This is a really really tough question. Basic economics would generally lead one to an answer of "nothing currently produced can be guaranteed to increase in value due to the current market over saturation, and the tapering off of demand."
Bass and guitar are becoming less popular; they are clearly less popular with kids now than they were 15 years ago.
Supply has skyrocketed in the last 15 years due to a number of market factors. In simple terms, the rise of the mega-guitar stores (Sam Ash, GC, etc.) combined with the internet has pushed manufacturers to create instruments at a fantastic pace the last few years.
Combine that with the existing back stock of instruments built since ~1952, and you really end up with more product than anyone really "needs".
Add in the fact that the internet gives almost everyone nearly instant access to any private party sales, and suddenly you have too much gear, priced too high, for too many sellers and too few buyers.
TBH I feel like you can see the signs of it here; almost nothing will sell on the TB classifieds for more than 67% of the original retail price, often trending towards 50%. Spector Euros are $1999 on MF, they sell for $899 - $1199 + shipping here. $1600 StingRays sell for $850 - $1000.
If anyone can point me to a TB classified, where an instrument less than 20 years old has sold for 100% or more of its original price, please do. I feel like I have yet to see one.
There must be a few minor, minor exceptions, but they're extremely rare.
As a result I'd have to say "nothing".
Technology is moving faster now though. In the past, and to some degree, the present, acoustic instruments have had a longer shelf life. We are still working with old technology, and the basics of how sound is produced has to follow the physics. That will change. The changes we see in the next 50 years will be vast in comparison to the last 50 with respect to how we are able to innovate. In some areas anyway. :keep us distracted: :we still won't have cured anything just manage symptoms: : why does everyone on here only have one eyebrow:
Probably good Fenders that were under produced/short run and under appreciated at time of their manufacture. No way to tell what these might be; are 'different' models like the Cabronita being shunted/ignored in favor of Fender's Dimension push? This is the sort of scenario that may result in a future collectable.
