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What basses will be worh $$$$ 30+ years from now?

#61
wolffire99 said:
Right now G&L's have hit bottom in the used market but in another 10-15 years I agree, the quality is there.
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I dunno... 5-10+ years ago you could get any early G&L you wanted for $500ish. Prices are down right now though.

There will be basses that appreciate in the future. Mainly based on rarity, quality, and to a lesser degree materials. It won't be huge gains in value though except for maybe the top of the line stuff. However I predict that we will never again see what has happened with vintage Fenders. 70s Fenders will never get there. Even the 50s-60s Fender bubble may burst and sooner than later.
 
#63
There will always be a market for basses that are hard to find or discontinued or basses that cant be reproduced. You might or might not make any money collecting and selling these basses but there will always be a market.

Exotic woods, low production numbers, well known luthiers going out of business, celebrity status, etc are all potential collectibles.
Imagine if Mike Pedulla ever announced that he'd be getting out of the bass building business or if bubinga and wenge were no longer allowed to be harvested or if Spector decided to produce a run of just 4 really unique basses or if Victor Wooten decided to sell one of his personal Foderas. Those would all be potential investments in the bass world.

Would any of those keep up with inflation or other more traditional investments, who knows. All investments are a crap shoot in an uncertain market and uncertainty is about the only certain thing for the foreseeable future.
 
#65
Stingray5 said:
Right, but my point is that, 30 years from now a classic one built by Mike might possibly fetch a hefty sum.
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I would doubt it. There are Tobias basses that are 25 years old now and not worth much at all. That fender start of rock and roll thing was special to so many people (not only players) that were alive to experience it. Not much history associated with the coffee table basses.

Special time where the P Bass and Strat literally changed the musical universe. That is what drove the prices up IMO
 
#68
Thanks again for all the quality, well-thought out responses folks.

Not that anybody touched on it, really: not suggestively or indirectly, but, just want to ensure folks I am far from an investor! I am not smart enough with money or valuable things, to be one. (If I was, I may have kept that 1986 Fodera I bought new...and sold in 1987. OK, I was a kid and didn't realize the mistake, but nonetheless...stupid move.)

I am a player, that's all I will ever be bass-wise. I can't really afford to collect, but I have some instruments I love to look at :-) ALMOST as much as I love to play them. But it just dawned on me, that I am the original owner of a Japanese-crafted 1987 Ibanez, that I bought new for $579...that 25 years later, is worth perhaps $100-$150 less than what I purchased it new for. (And $579 back then is >$1,000 now.) So figure 66% depreciation! On a quality-made instrument. Just doesn't make sense...except that, perhaps what some touched on: Supply and demand...they started mass-producing instruments in the 70s, early 80s...there likely isn't a huge shortage of my Ibanez or its late 80s counterparts.

But, it is only human-nature to want to spend $300 on a bass (or $1300, etc.) play the heck out of it, give it war scars, and be able to sell it (or my grandkids to inherit an item of value) 40 years from now. Just doesn't seem likely, unless it's Fodera...or the very few in that class (MTD, Pedulla, Thompson, etc.)

That not withstanding, folks truly have touched on some key points (generally) and instruments of interest (specifically); i.e. Squiers, Kubicki, 2008+ Fenders, AMRI Fenders, etc. (And lots of others.) Very interesting, indeed.

Thanks again for the replies and truly excellent reading material here! This thread hasn't gone south, hope it stays that way :-)

Cheers,
Sean
 
#69
older Wal basses have really gone up in value, and I think they'll continue to. in the mid 80's a new Wal was about $1300 USD. Now a mid 80's MKI is worth around $4500 and a 90's MKII is north of $5000 now. doesn't help that one guy makes them and it takes almost 2 years to get one.
 
#70
KJung said:
I would doubt it. There are Tobias basses that are 25 years old now and not worth much at all. That fender start of rock and roll thing was special to so many people (not only players) that were alive to experience it. Not much history associated with the coffee table basses.

Special time where the P Bass and Strat literally changed the musical universe. That is what drove the prices up IMO
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I agree. That's how I see it too.
 
#72
It's a lot like the Classic Car market. Cars are so evolved and homogenized right now that there is little to really distinguish one from another. Can you even begin to imagine any currently made care that could become a classic (Other than some super-rare museum item)?

Meanwhile, as manufacturing gets better and better, bassists of the future will wonder how we played the monstrosities of our era. Fender has made GIANT strides in manufacturing. If they wanted to upgrade the hardware and change a few specs on the automated Squier manufacturing line, they could easily turn out MIA quality products at a bargain price. And - they might do that if it became the way to the most profit. Look at how good they are now!

No - I just don't see any of today's basses becoming super valuable in the future. Even our own current collectables are just not worth that much any more. It seems that they have fallen 30- 50% in value over the last few years.

Earlier this year I helped my friend sell his father's near MINT '59 P bass - played only 2 years and then sat in the closet. It took 3 months and nationwide advertising to sell it for $7900!

In 30 years if your bass wasn't previously owned by Macca, forget it. Just enjoy it and don't worry about the value.
 
#73
30 years ago, the same question was asked, and most bass players said "None. Why would this basic Fender that I paid $300 for be worth anything?".

Also, 50 years ago people said "In 50 years, people won't be listening to rock&roll music. There will be something bigger and better".

I'm still waiting for the bigger and better. Whenever that time comes, then maybe it will cancel out the stuff being used today and make something else more popular. Unless they actually use the same stuff to make the bigger and better music. ;)
 
#75
nukes_da_bass said:
Musical instruments will hold no value in the future- humans will have mind implants and compose and play music with thought commands which other people can hear through their own brain implants within the matrix.
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An interesting notion, but I don't think so. Let's think about our ability to define "timbre." Hard to do in words, even harder to do in digital code (and digital sampling presumes an analog exemplar from which to sample). Methinks instruments are going to be around for a long while.

I'd bet on the best boutique basses, Fodera, Sadowsky and the like, to have cachet in the future. They pick good wood, which will only get better with age, and electronics, the overall tonal/timbral package is well selected, and playability is excellent. Let's hope the future holds an adequate supply of 9V batteries!
 
#76
If I knew what basses would sell for big money in 50 years, I'd buy a hundred of them. Of course, in 50 years, I'll be dead, and my grandkids would probably sell them for a fraction of their worth, so what do I care? ;)
 
#77
IMHO a good option would be a hand made great sounding bass, made by some talented and respected luthier, like Copollo, Lull, Nordstrand, companies that 30 years from now may be building great quality series instruments like Ernie Ball, G&L, Warwick or similar high standard builders.
Any of those options are in the 3-4 grand price range, but once the demand increases through the years of consistent high quality instrument sales, they have some ways to deal with it. The company may start offering high quality series instruments, the brand will grow, people will still love the instruments delivered, and hand made early contructions will rocket up in value with time.
The other option for the builder is to keep the hand build offer and increase the cost of each instrument backed by offer/demand market regulation. In such situation, your old bass will also increase it's price according to the rise of the new instruments, and 30 years old in a high quality good shape bass will also make a difference in price.
 
#79
nukes_da_bass said:
Musical instruments will hold no value in the future- humans will have mind implants and compose and play music with thought commands which other people can hear through their own brain implants within the matrix.
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And remember what Stephen Spielberg thought 2015 was going to look like in Back To The Future? He was waaaay off. Things just don't advance as much as we think. Sure, computers got smaller and more powerful, but... that's about it. Everything else advances in pretty small increments. We still live in the same kind houses, we still drive the same kind of cars (wheels and crappy roads), etc, etc. Imo, 30 years won't be much different.
 
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#80
40 years ago minimum wage was $1.65 an hour. An income of $1000 a month was a fortune. Gas was $.25 a gallon, steak cost $.49 a pound, a new luxury car cost $3500, and I paid $75 a month rent for a pretty nice house.
It is all about economics and inflation. We have created a monetary system that is dependent upon continuous inflation. Inflation is how the people at the top harvest the savings of the people at the bottom.
30 years from now I would guess that EVERYTHING will cost at least 10 times more than it does today.
40 years ago a really expensive bass cost $500. Today $5000.
 

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