What basses will be worh $$$$ 30+ years from now?

[seang15]

Hey folks,

I haven't started a thread in a while. And this got me curious:

What will be "tomorrow's Pre-CBS Fender basses?" We all wish we had a time machine that would take us 30+ years back in the past, so we can buy 1, 10, 50 Fender basses, play the chit out of 50% of them, and store the other 50% for future purposes and/or collector appeal.

What would YOU guys buy up at like, say, $500-$1500 range and store for the future? Or perhaps it's the $200-$500 range we should look at? (I know, very likely, a 10 grand Fodera may be worth 50 grand 50 years from now. That's interesting and good information, but "a given.")

Cheers,
Sean

 

[bkbirge]

70's Fenders. They are already trending that way. 30 years from now there won't be many of us left that remember how inconsistent the quality control on those were.

I'd also say if you had $12,000 to blow on a pre-CBS fender now that in 30 years you'd probably still make a killing.

 

[DannyBob]

I reckon it will be basses that have active electronics and loads of other currently 'modern and innovative' features. Then in 50 years people will look at them and laugh at the technology before they jump on their hoverboards and fly to the moon for lunch.

 

[73jbass]

Kubicki X Factors.

 

[Pandastylebass]

Late 70's Early 80's Japanese basses?

 

[bass geetarist]

That "Mothman" bass people keep posting about

 

[headband]

I have a Kubicki Factor 5 string - and while not as innovative as the Factor bass you may be on to something...

 

[KJung]

IMO, none. The strange pricing of old Fender's seems to be driven much more by baby boomer 'reliving the past' (i.e., those instruments are iconic from the start of rock and roll all the way through the 70's). Once the baby boomers get too old to care (and we are getting close to that),the whole 'collector thing' will most likely disappear.

 

[drummer5359]

I might get flamed for this, but I think that the 2008 and up American Standards will be seen as a bright spot. An American Select is something that will do well in the long run.

I can make these silly predictions, I'll not likely be around to care.

 

[Milk]

Any bass i've played. Obviously.


No I mean, because i'll have played them.

 

[Mosfed]

Yeah - I am not so sure - I think it will still be the same usual suspects as today. So 60s Fender basses will always be the holy grail. It is likely that the 70s basses will also significantly appreciate in value because they are super sweet and much more consistent in quality than Fender guitars from the same era. I personally have never played a 70s Fender that I hated and I have played some that I just adore.

The problem with anything being made today by a company like Fender significantly appreciating in value is supply and demand. Fender is making SO MANY basses these days between the Custom Shop, the US, Mexico and Asia So the market is absolutely clogged. And they have no intention of slowing down.

Why is a Gibson Les Paul burst so valuable? Not because it is the nicest guitar ever. In fact many people would argue that current Custom Shop Les Paul Historics are nicer and better built than the original bursts. But there were only ~1200 or so made. So the rarity value takes it through the ceiling.

There is no rarity value in modern made high production guitars. Even my Fender La Cabronita custom shop tele that was only made in 20 of each color in the first year will never have that rarity value because Fender then made the Telebration series, mexican and Squier models.

You get my point.

Plus I don't believe in INVESTING in guitars or basses. I believe in playing guitars and basses.

 

[eqvolvorama]

I suspect that very few if any of "today's" basses will appreciate much beyond simple inflation. I think they will follow the same model that old cars or old comics followed. The reason that so many old comics and/or cars are worth so much today (in the right condition) is in large part due to scarcity.

Let's say that X basses were produced in 1962. Of those, a relatively small percentage would be around today in very good condition, if around at all. Scarcity plus the classic lasting-power of the icon and brand means $.

Then let's say that today, Y basses are produced every year. Y is a much bigger number than X. Furthermore, the total aggregate number of basses produced since the end of the arbitrary "classic" period is something like 30xY. A very big number. And this time, people take good care of their basses. They put them in cases, they polish them. They sell them on eBay. More basses on the market means increased supply which means less upward pressure on the resale.

Making this more troublesome is that the sheer number and variety of models on the market have made it difficult for any "new" kind of instrument to earn the same legendary status as a 1962 Precision or 1960 Jazz. I can't for the life of me think of any recent-model instrument (after maybe the Stingray) that's become an icon like anything that came before, at least to the degree that would justify big appreciation against the available supply.

Then you have Wal's, which are of course extremely coveted and extremely scarce, but I'd be surprised if they were ever recognized enough to rate the kind of ridiculous appreciation we're seeing on old Fenders.

 

[Bassamatic]

I doubt that there will be any "classic" guitars from today's production. There are too many of them, and today's production technology produces more good ones. Even now, the value of vintage guitars has dropped dramatically.

 

[Low Class]

Unfortunately none will be worth more in dollars, but you might be able to trade a loaf of bread for a Fodera.

 

[NotTylerHendley]

Speaking of Fenders, the only American one I've played that I'd be willing to spend $1600 on if I had it is the 60th Anniversary P bass.

Other than that, I'll be willing to bet if Squier Vintage Mods ever stop getting produced, some folks (myself included) would pay a decent amount for one in the future.

 

[yodedude2]

i tend to agree with the doubters here. there may be rare exceptions based on celebrity-owned instruments, but bass guitars in general will go the way of cassette tapes and electric typewriters. they will be cult collectibles, but not especially valuable beyond being antiques.

 

[LanEvo]

Prices for early Steinbergers have been rising, especially rare versions such as narrow-fivers, Trans Trems, and uncommon colors.

Alembics seem to hold their values well.

Can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

 

[elgecko]

A good bass will be worth a loaf of bread and a chicken!

 

[Hopkins]

It will be basses that weren't massed produced, like Fender Custom Shop instruments.

 

[BioWeapon]

It will be basses that weren't massed produced, like Fender Custom Shop instruments.

Agreed.

I wonder how much a vintage Fodera bass will be worth?
Hmmm.