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What basses will be worh $$$$ 30+ years from now?

Discussion in 'Basses [BG]' started by seang15, Oct 31, 2013.

  1. seang15


    Aug 28, 2008
    Cary NC
    Hey folks,

    I haven't started a thread in a while. And this got me curious:

    What will be "tomorrow's Pre-CBS Fender basses?" We all wish we had a time machine that would take us 30+ years back in the past, so we can buy 1, 10, 50 :) Fender basses, play the chit out of 50% of them, and store the other 50% for future purposes and/or collector appeal.

    What would YOU guys buy up at like, say, $500-$1500 range and store for the future? Or perhaps it's the $200-$500 range we should look at? (I know, very likely, a 10 grand Fodera may be worth 50 grand 50 years from now. That's interesting and good information, but "a given.")

    Sean :bassist:
  2. bkbirge


    Jun 25, 2000
    Houston, TX
    Endorsing Artist: Steak n Shake
    70's Fenders. They are already trending that way. 30 years from now there won't be many of us left that remember how inconsistent the quality control on those were.

    I'd also say if you had $12,000 to blow on a pre-CBS fender now that in 30 years you'd probably still make a killing.
  3. DannyBob


    Aug 28, 2013
    I reckon it will be basses that have active electronics and loads of other currently 'modern and innovative' features. Then in 50 years people will look at them and laugh at the technology before they jump on their hoverboards and fly to the moon for lunch.
    kodiakblair and Ghastly like this.
  4. 73jbass

    73jbass Supporting Member

    Apr 17, 2004
    Kubicki X Factors.
    EmuBass likes this.
  5. Doctor_Clock

    Doctor_Clock The Moon Machine Gold Supporting Member

    May 6, 2013
    Brooklyn, NY
    Late 70's Early 80's Japanese basses?
    kodiakblair likes this.
  6. bass geetarist

    bass geetarist

    Jul 29, 2013
    That "Mothman" bass people keep posting about
    Ghastly and Nashrakh like this.
  7. headband

    headband Supporting Member

    Oct 18, 2013
    Lake Havasu City
    I have a Kubicki Factor 5 string - and while not as innovative as the Factor bass you may be on to something...
  8. IMO, none. The strange pricing of old Fender's seems to be driven much more by baby boomer 'reliving the past' (i.e., those instruments are iconic from the start of rock and roll all the way through the 70's). Once the baby boomers get too old to care (and we are getting close to that:D),the whole 'collector thing' will most likely disappear.
  9. drummer5359

    drummer5359 Gold Supporting Member

    Jan 10, 2011
    Pittsburgh PA USA
    I might get flamed for this, but I think that the 2008 and up American Standards will be seen as a bright spot. An American Select is something that will do well in the long run.

    I can make these silly predictions, I'll not likely be around to care.
  10. Milk


    Sep 16, 2013
    Montreal, Canada
    Any bass i've played. Obviously.

    No I mean, because i'll have played them.
  11. Mosfed


    Apr 21, 2013
    Chamonix Mont-Blanc
    Partner - CCP Pedals
    Yeah - I am not so sure - I think it will still be the same usual suspects as today. So 60s Fender basses will always be the holy grail. It is likely that the 70s basses will also significantly appreciate in value because they are super sweet and much more consistent in quality than Fender guitars from the same era. I personally have never played a 70s Fender that I hated and I have played some that I just adore.

    The problem with anything being made today by a company like Fender significantly appreciating in value is supply and demand. Fender is making SO MANY basses these days between the Custom Shop, the US, Mexico and Asia So the market is absolutely clogged. And they have no intention of slowing down.

    Why is a Gibson Les Paul burst so valuable? Not because it is the nicest guitar ever. In fact many people would argue that current Custom Shop Les Paul Historics are nicer and better built than the original bursts. But there were only ~1200 or so made. So the rarity value takes it through the ceiling.

    There is no rarity value in modern made high production guitars. Even my Fender La Cabronita custom shop tele that was only made in 20 of each color in the first year will never have that rarity value because Fender then made the Telebration series, mexican and Squier models.

    You get my point.

    Plus I don't believe in INVESTING in guitars or basses. I believe in playing guitars and basses.
    bass40hz likes this.
  12. eqvolvorama

    eqvolvorama Supporting Member

    Dec 11, 2000
    Arlington, Virginia
    I suspect that very few if any of "today's" basses will appreciate much beyond simple inflation. I think they will follow the same model that old cars or old comics followed. The reason that so many old comics and/or cars are worth so much today (in the right condition) is in large part due to scarcity.

    Let's say that X basses were produced in 1962. Of those, a relatively small percentage would be around today in very good condition, if around at all. Scarcity plus the classic lasting-power of the icon and brand means $.

    Then let's say that today, Y basses are produced every year. Y is a much bigger number than X. Furthermore, the total aggregate number of basses produced since the end of the arbitrary "classic" period is something like 30xY. A very big number. And this time, people take good care of their basses. They put them in cases, they polish them. They sell them on eBay. More basses on the market means increased supply which means less upward pressure on the resale.

    Making this more troublesome is that the sheer number and variety of models on the market have made it difficult for any "new" kind of instrument to earn the same legendary status as a 1962 Precision or 1960 Jazz. I can't for the life of me think of any recent-model instrument (after maybe the Stingray) that's become an icon like anything that came before, at least to the degree that would justify big appreciation against the available supply.

    Then you have Wal's, which are of course extremely coveted and extremely scarce, but I'd be surprised if they were ever recognized enough to rate the kind of ridiculous appreciation we're seeing on old Fenders.
  13. Bassamatic

    Bassamatic keepin' the beat since the 60's Supporting Member

    I doubt that there will be any "classic" guitars from today's production. There are too many of them, and today's production technology produces more good ones. Even now, the value of vintage guitars has dropped dramatically.
  14. Low Class

    Low Class Supporting Member

    Jul 4, 2005
    Orange Park, Florida
    Unfortunately none will be worth more in dollars, but you might be able to trade a loaf of bread for a Fodera.
  15. NotTylerHendley

    NotTylerHendley Supporting Member

    Nov 21, 2011
    Speaking of Fenders, the only American one I've played that I'd be willing to spend $1600 on if I had it is the 60th Anniversary P bass.

    Other than that, I'll be willing to bet if Squier Vintage Mods ever stop getting produced, some folks (myself included) would pay a decent amount for one in the future.
  16. yodedude2

    yodedude2 Supporting Member

    Nov 19, 2005
    san antonio, texas
    i tend to agree with the doubters here. there may be rare exceptions based on celebrity-owned instruments, but bass guitars in general will go the way of cassette tapes and electric typewriters. they will be cult collectibles, but not especially valuable beyond being antiques.
  17. LanEvo

    LanEvo Supporting Member

    Mar 10, 2008
    Prices for early Steinbergers have been rising, especially rare versions such as narrow-fivers, Trans Trems, and uncommon colors.

    Alembics seem to hold their values well.

    Can't think of anything else off the top of my head.
    EmuBass likes this.
  18. elgecko


    Apr 30, 2007
    Anasleim, CA
    A good bass will be worth a loaf of bread and a chicken!

    IamGroot likes this.
  19. Hopkins

    Hopkins Supporting Member Commercial User

    Nov 17, 2010
    Houston Tx
    Owner/Builder @Hopkins Guitars
    It will be basses that weren't massed produced, like Fender Custom Shop instruments.
  20. Agreed.

    I wonder how much a vintage Fodera bass will be worth?

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