Letting go of my ghost finish Octabvre MK III and Doom 2 shortly in the classifieds. Just ruminating on how much to ask for them.. 
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3Leaf Audio Club - Episode 2
- Thread starter fivestringgecko
- Start date
Letting go of my ghost finish Octabvre MK III and Doom 2 shortly in the classifieds. Just ruminating on how much to ask for them..
You should ask for the market price of course!
Looking for any trades dm meLetting go of my ghost finish Octabvre MK III and Doom 2 shortly in the classifieds. Just ruminating on how much to ask for them..
There is a limit to what pedals typically bring at retail. The $400 threshold seems to be the cutoff point to what most will pay. Build a better mousetrap, people will talk. Spencer’s customers seem to be ok with breaking that glass ceiling. The auction proved that. $600 is the new $400. I feel that at that price, the aftermarket would disappear almost completely, and the retail market would be unsustainable. I think a second auction would see the price drop to $500-$550- the novelty is gone. I expect retail to raise to $450, TOPS, and aftermarket flippers to have difficulty getting enough of a ROI to make it worth their while. I think the number of people willing to pay $600 for an already comparatively overpriced pedal will drop off pretty quickly…THEN, what do you do as a manufacturer? You can’t go back. That slope is slippery.
I'm no economist, but does 4 people paying $625 really mean the market price is $625? I have to imagine that at $625 the market becomes much smaller than the market for $333.
Current market price. It could drop quite quickly if they were the only 4 willing to pay that much.
I would respect Spencer's decisions more if he didn't try to justify them. Raise the price? Sure. You do you. They'll probably still sell. Does anyone believe your pedals are worth $625? Absolutely not. I think ego is getting in the way of logic. A very small sample size of 10 doesn't count. Anyone else notice he treats his website updates like a journal entry or therapy session? It's a very cringe-worthy read every time I see a novel written.
Also, if he actually cared about scalpers, he wouldn't sell to them. It's plan and simple. He has the power to cancel orders and refuses to do so. It's easy to figure out who the scalpers are. It's the same people buying from every batch and posting them on Reverb, eBay or even TB.
Also, if he actually cared about scalpers, he wouldn't sell to them. It's plan and simple. He has the power to cancel orders and refuses to do so. It's easy to figure out who the scalpers are. It's the same people buying from every batch and posting them on Reverb, eBay or even TB.
+1 to these.
Market price and auction prices are two very different things, especially when the auctions are for a very few limited pedals from an already limited small batch release. The four people that completed the transactions probably just have deep pockets (or were willing to heat up the credit card). They probably weren't able to get in on the normal release, and knew they were guaranteed to get one if they just threw enough money at one of the auctions.
I 100% agree that Spencer is misinterpreting the outcome here. Obviously he can run his business as he sees fit, that discussion is long behind us. But at this point, he doesn't even need to put on a pretense of caring. It makes no difference even if he doesn't give a crap and is just trolling... He still gets rewarded for things like forced bundling and auctions because his releases still sell out in a matter of seconds.
5sg.
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50 pedals shipped yesterday. 20 shipping today. I’m a couple days behind, SORRY. I ran out of hardware. My restock shipment got delayed in transit. The toner cartridge in my printer exploded.
Delays happen. Not a big deal. I appreciate the transparency. Also Spencer has been shipping on time with past batches so he's earned some leeway in this area.
The auctions concluded and the winners have received their pedals. All 7 auctions ended, but only 4 of the transactions were completed. Two of the winners were in the EU and got sticker shock at the VAT, which eBay now collects at the time of purchase (I did not know this). One winner didn’t seem to understand the concept of an auction. I’m chalking it up to a learning experience for everyone. But we did get some useful price discovery: the 4 completed transactions had an average winning bid of $625. That’s the market price. Interesting!
That's not cool that three people flaked. I'm sorry, Spencer. With demand as it is, however, I'm sure you'll be able to sell those pedals whenever you like
It's erroneous to say that this produced "useful price discover." The fact that three people flaked reduces the data points by about 43%. Plus a group of four--or seven, for that matter--is too small a case study to support significant or meaningful conclusions.
Auctions are great because you get to really find out how much something is worth. On Reverb, an item might sit for months listed at an inflated value, only to sell for an undisclosed price. A no-reserve auction WILL SELL at a specified time, to the person who values it most in that moment - so it’s a better method of price discovery than a closed market like Reverb. Someone should make an MTGstocks for music gear so we can track this stuff.
There are two ideas in this paragraph:
So what are the takeaways from all this?
2. Definitely not. Prices have been falling since the heights of early 2022. The latest drops have only furthered that trajectory. The other week a Doom 2 sat for days in the TalkBass classifieds at 0; when it did move, it was traded, not sold. And on Reverb they have been sitting at $600–650. That's wild considering they were going for $800 or even $1,000 in late 2021 and early 2022.
3. I don't know if it's "incorrect" (though I seriously doubt eBay would get this wrong since they are a huge company and this is their whole business), but it is a reflection of the changes in EU legislation that went into effect in March 2023.
The conversation regarding the “fair” price of an OCTABVRE is now over.
Not really, as my breakdown of this website update has addressed. Not only are markets constantly in flux--what happens when more Octabvre units are built, what happens if Broughton Audio makes 2024 the year of the Subsonic, what happens if the Iron Ether Subterranea is rereleased, what happens if a new suboctave pedal emerges and is universally loved, what happens as COG Effects continues to meet demand?--but the data behind this conclusion is not compelling.
But there is one more issue to address: SCALPERS. Let’s be clear on definitions: a scalper, in common parlance, is someone who buys a pedal from me at the killer deal price with the express purpose of immediately reselling it at the market price. I don’t love this. It’s the reason for my LIMIT 1 PER CUSTOMER policy. I like it when my pedals go on pedalboards and get played, and I would prefer my speculators have lower time preference, if for no other reason than it will cut down the number of whiny emails I receive.
Makes sense.
My perspective: Some of my customers seem to believe they are the ONE TRUE CUSTOMER, engaging in monthly warfare with an army of bots, scalpers, and other bad actors. I love a good conspiracy theory, but there’s a much simpler explanation: I have more than 100 customers. I do look at Reverb from time to time, and I see one or two pedals from each edition on there, but that doesn’t indicate a massive scalper problem.
lol yeah, I agree it's overblown and it must suck as a small-business owner to be bombarded by complaints. Customers are often spoiled and entitled these days. But it's disingenuous to put all the blame on customers. The lack of communication from 3 Leaf Audio until recently also contributed to the current circumstances.
P.S. bonus points to Spencer for the "ONE TRUE CUSTOMER, engaging in monthly warfare with an army of bots, scalpers, and other bad actors." This is an accurate and humorous sentence. Normally I find the shade thrown in these updates unprofessional and "cringe-worthy" (to quote @kranahan), but this one is spot-on. 10/10
Some of my customers ask a funny question: what is to be done about the “problem” of high market prices? You must “solve” the “problem” of people valuing your work!!! The only thing I really have to say on this point is….have you ever risked anything? I sold my home to buy the parts for this year’s pedals. I bet on myself and won.
I agree this can be an unreasonable ask by customers. And in this moment I think it especially is because the latest drops have gone a long way in addressing demand. But as I have written here over the course of these drops, the silence about the future of the company was a big contributor to the unnecessarily inflated secondhand market pricing. Also, as @kranahan says, there are steps a builder can take to cut off known flippers.
Next year I will do editions of 333. The first one should release in the spring. I am aiming for a release schedule of every other month. This will extend the release window, and also make things more manageable for me. I know there has been frustration with the challenge of securing a pedal, People with no background in manufacturing imagine there’s a big red button labeled SCALE UP, and pedals fall out of the sky every time you press it. The button doesn’t exist, and if it did I’m not sure I would press it.
More communication about the future. Thank you. Also this seems like a more sensible model for both Spencer and his customers.
Do your own thing, Spencer. Ski. Play bass. Live life. Don't scale up if you don't want to. Just continue to be clear about the future of the company, so much as you can be.
For the record, I think the market price of these pedals will be higher in 5 or 10 years. I believe in my work.
I hope so, if only because I want small pedal companies like 3 Leaf Audio to succeed. But this impossible to predict. It depends on how many are built, if an Octabvre MKIV or Proton v5 or Doom 3 is released and if it's any good, and what the competition from other boutique and bespoke pedal companies is.
Delays happen. Not a big deal. I appreciate the transparency. Also Spencer has been shipping on time with past batches so he's earned some leeway in this area.
The auctions concluded and the winners have received their pedals. All 7 auctions ended, but only 4 of the transactions were completed. Two of the winners were in the EU and got sticker shock at the VAT, which eBay now collects at the time of purchase (I did not know this). One winner didn’t seem to understand the concept of an auction. I’m chalking it up to a learning experience for everyone. But we did get some useful price discovery: the 4 completed transactions had an average winning bid of $625. That’s the market price. Interesting!
That's not cool that three people flaked. I'm sorry, Spencer. With demand as it is, however, I'm sure you'll be able to sell those pedals whenever you like
It's erroneous to say that this produced "useful price discover." The fact that three people flaked reduces the data points by about 43%. Plus a group of four--or seven, for that matter--is too small a case study to support significant or meaningful conclusions.
Auctions are great because you get to really find out how much something is worth. On Reverb, an item might sit for months listed at an inflated value, only to sell for an undisclosed price. A no-reserve auction WILL SELL at a specified time, to the person who values it most in that moment - so it’s a better method of price discovery than a closed market like Reverb. Someone should make an MTGstocks for music gear so we can track this stuff.
There are two ideas in this paragraph:
- that auctions tell you "how much something is worth"
- that "a no-reserve auction will sell at a specified time" to whomever "values it most in that moment"
So what are the takeaways from all this?
- The pedal is a killer deal at $333. I’m practically giving them away.
- The pedal has a market price in the $600-650 range at this moment in time. So if someone is asking $2000 for one on Reverb, that’s gonna be a tough sell. Conversely, if someone is asking less than $600, that’s not a bad deal.
- eBay is not an ideal platform for buyers in the EU and any other regions where the import tax is collected at the time of purchase. Due to the way eBay collects and records the tax paid, there is risk of a shipment being incorrectly double-taxed upon arrival.
2. Definitely not. Prices have been falling since the heights of early 2022. The latest drops have only furthered that trajectory. The other week a Doom 2 sat for days in the TalkBass classifieds at 0; when it did move, it was traded, not sold. And on Reverb they have been sitting at $600–650. That's wild considering they were going for $800 or even $1,000 in late 2021 and early 2022.
3. I don't know if it's "incorrect" (though I seriously doubt eBay would get this wrong since they are a huge company and this is their whole business), but it is a reflection of the changes in EU legislation that went into effect in March 2023.
The conversation regarding the “fair” price of an OCTABVRE is now over.
Not really, as my breakdown of this website update has addressed. Not only are markets constantly in flux--what happens when more Octabvre units are built, what happens if Broughton Audio makes 2024 the year of the Subsonic, what happens if the Iron Ether Subterranea is rereleased, what happens if a new suboctave pedal emerges and is universally loved, what happens as COG Effects continues to meet demand?--but the data behind this conclusion is not compelling.
But there is one more issue to address: SCALPERS. Let’s be clear on definitions: a scalper, in common parlance, is someone who buys a pedal from me at the killer deal price with the express purpose of immediately reselling it at the market price. I don’t love this. It’s the reason for my LIMIT 1 PER CUSTOMER policy. I like it when my pedals go on pedalboards and get played, and I would prefer my speculators have lower time preference, if for no other reason than it will cut down the number of whiny emails I receive.
Makes sense.
My perspective: Some of my customers seem to believe they are the ONE TRUE CUSTOMER, engaging in monthly warfare with an army of bots, scalpers, and other bad actors. I love a good conspiracy theory, but there’s a much simpler explanation: I have more than 100 customers. I do look at Reverb from time to time, and I see one or two pedals from each edition on there, but that doesn’t indicate a massive scalper problem.
lol yeah, I agree it's overblown and it must suck as a small-business owner to be bombarded by complaints. Customers are often spoiled and entitled these days. But it's disingenuous to put all the blame on customers. The lack of communication from 3 Leaf Audio until recently also contributed to the current circumstances.
P.S. bonus points to Spencer for the "ONE TRUE CUSTOMER, engaging in monthly warfare with an army of bots, scalpers, and other bad actors." This is an accurate and humorous sentence. Normally I find the shade thrown in these updates unprofessional and "cringe-worthy" (to quote @kranahan), but this one is spot-on. 10/10
Some of my customers ask a funny question: what is to be done about the “problem” of high market prices? You must “solve” the “problem” of people valuing your work!!! The only thing I really have to say on this point is….have you ever risked anything? I sold my home to buy the parts for this year’s pedals. I bet on myself and won.
I agree this can be an unreasonable ask by customers. And in this moment I think it especially is because the latest drops have gone a long way in addressing demand. But as I have written here over the course of these drops, the silence about the future of the company was a big contributor to the unnecessarily inflated secondhand market pricing. Also, as @kranahan says, there are steps a builder can take to cut off known flippers.
Next year I will do editions of 333. The first one should release in the spring. I am aiming for a release schedule of every other month. This will extend the release window, and also make things more manageable for me. I know there has been frustration with the challenge of securing a pedal, People with no background in manufacturing imagine there’s a big red button labeled SCALE UP, and pedals fall out of the sky every time you press it. The button doesn’t exist, and if it did I’m not sure I would press it.
More communication about the future. Thank you. Also this seems like a more sensible model for both Spencer and his customers.
Do your own thing, Spencer. Ski. Play bass. Live life. Don't scale up if you don't want to. Just continue to be clear about the future of the company, so much as you can be.
For the record, I think the market price of these pedals will be higher in 5 or 10 years. I believe in my work.
I hope so, if only because I want small pedal companies like 3 Leaf Audio to succeed. But this impossible to predict. It depends on how many are built, if an Octabvre MKIV or Proton v5 or Doom 3 is released and if it's any good, and what the competition from other boutique and bespoke pedal companies is.
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I'm practically giving them away.You should ask for the market price of course!
Haha. The saga continues, of course...
Still trying to figure out, "I sold my home to buy the parts for this year’s pedals. I bet on myself and won."
For some reason, I see Charlie Sheen's face when I read the latest post.
Still trying to figure out, "I sold my home to buy the parts for this year’s pedals. I bet on myself and won."
For some reason, I see Charlie Sheen's face when I read the latest post.
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Where could I find details about the sonic and functional differences between the "You're Doom", the "Doom" and the "Doom 2"?
Letting go of my ghost finish Octabvre MK III and Doom 2 shortly in the classifieds. Just ruminating on how much to ask for them..
Flippers and trade-baiters base value off of the current gouge market. You'd be giving them away if you charge retail, or lower
You're Doom and Doom are the same pedal with a different name. The former is a reference to an adult swim show, which was getting into infringement territory, apparently.
Doom 2's "You're" setting is the old Doom/You're Doom. Synthy, upper harmonics, more gated sounding. The "Your" mode is a bit more traditional, but still feels pretty bright and velcro-y (i.e. not a muff fuzz). Beyond that, the '2' gives some more granular control. 3-band EQ with option for 'bass' to be a low pass clean or full range clean.
If you download the manuals online, the differences in controls are pretty clear.
Gawd I'm so glad 3leaf doesn't have anything I desire at the moment.. this is some muck. The only time this thread gets traction anymore is to post about what nutzo going-ons are a foot. Not to discuss some revolutionary (or ordinary) new design, post a flash sale for TB members only, the actual builder requesting input or general correspondence, mention new up & coming projects, or at least mention an attempt at a project. It's basically the reviews section on Amazon, about as accurate to boot. By the looks of the web post, I hope he bought a sizable front door. I know a hat re-size must be in order.
Somebody took this dude's last remaining marbles away. Good grief.
Novice speculators, especially those who bet big and win early in their “careers”, will go to any lengths and twists of logic, math and economic reality to justify their (temporary) wins and behavior. It never ends well. A few learn the hard way over time, while most go broke.
Whether that applies here is unknowable.
Spencer is obviously highly intelligent, creative and skilled. I hope he finds a way to succeed - however he defines it - on terms agreeable to him.
Whether that applies here is unknowable.
Spencer is obviously highly intelligent, creative and skilled. I hope he finds a way to succeed - however he defines it - on terms agreeable to him.
Oh my, I went to the website to see if he’s shipped em yet (I have yet to receive any shipping confirmation or tracking #), and I’m rewarded with being able to read about just how lucky I am to have “basically stolen” this pedal from him. I mean, 4 entire people who missed the drop of 93 pedals resigned themselves to spend double on an auction of the very few remaining, so clearly all of us other 93 probably should have paid $625!
Good lord, I shouldn’t have looked. Spencer, you make great pedals dude-but maybe….
Well, nevermind- please get mine sent out as soon as possible K thankssss byeeeeee
Good lord, I shouldn’t have looked. Spencer, you make great pedals dude-but maybe….
Well, nevermind- please get mine sent out as soon as possible K thankssss byeeeeee
We all owe Spencer thousands of dollars - it is known.
