Coronavirus discussion thread - NO POLITICS, or "POLITICS by PROXY"

[J_Bass]

And keep stating the obvious, like it's the elderly population that is more at risk. Of course they are!!

THE MORTALITY RATE IS NOT THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT THIS VIRUS!!

It's the respiratory complications and the high spread rate!! It's the lack of medical material for everyone! It's the high risk of the medical population being infected! It's the lack of retroactive immunity! The absense of a vaccine!


Is this so difficult to understand?

Is it so hard to understand that the main defense again the virus is to control it's dissemination? And the way to do it is to not go walking around?

What is the difficult part here?

This is not tone wood discussion! There are not opinions here! THERE ARE FACTS!

 

[Mike N]

This makes no sense. Why put someone at risk of flying at a time like this. What are they thinking?

I have no idea. Local college has been vague at best about informing families, I'm going by generic emails they send me.

 

[Alkali Ike]

What’s astonishing is the total lack of engagement by many people to educate themselves about this before just dismissing it as media hype. Good information and data is out there. Maybe not on your twitter feed though.

 

[fig]

I used to live in Sicily and traveled into and thru Italy regularly. It hurts a bit to hear of the latest statistics posted above by hrodbert696.

I'm sure precautions were/are being taken, but those numbers seem to indicate this virus works around those.

What's the latest and greatest info on what avenues of transmission this virus is taking?

 

[J_Bass]

I used to live in Sicily and traveled into and thru Italy regularly. It hurts a bit to hear of the latest statistics posted above by hrodbert696.

I'm sure precautions were/are being taken, but those numbers seem to indicate this virus works around those.

What's the latest and greatest info on what avenues of transmission this virus is taking?

Led by researchers in Germany, the virologic study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that the novel coronavirus quickly begins producing high viral loads, sheds efficiently, and grows well in the upper respiratory tract (nose, mouth, nasal cavity, and throat).

"Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms," the authors wrote. "These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment."

The nine patients, who were admitted to the same Munich hospital, were studied because they had had close contact with an index case. Cell cultures and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were done on throat swabs and samples of sputum, stool, blood, and urine. Throat swabs showed very high viral shedding during the first week of symptoms.

The findings contrasted starkly with those from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in terms of viral load. "In SARS, it took 7 to 10 days after onset until peak RNA concentrations (of up to 5x105 copies per swab) were reached," the researchers wrote. "In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher."

Throat swabs were much more sensitive with COVID-19 than with the SARS virus, and the virus was easier to isolate. Seven of the nine patients had upper respiratory infection.

Social distancing to prevent infection
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, which publishes CIDRAP News, said that the results challenge the World Health Organization's assertion that COVID-19 can be contained.

The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said. They also challenge the idea that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread, Osterholm said.

"Don't forget about hand washing, but at the same time we've got to get people to understand that if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds," he said. "Social distancing is the most effective tool we have right now."

 

[BD Jones]

And keep stating the obvious, like it's the elderly population that is more at risk. Of course they are!!

THE MORTALITY RATE IS NOT THE MAIN CONCERN ABOUT THIS VIRUS!!

It's the respiratory complications and the high spread rate!! It's the lack of medical material for everyone! It's the high risk of the medical population being infected! It's the lack of retroactive immunity! The absense of a vaccine!


Is this so difficult to understand?

Is it so hard to understand that the main defense again the virus is to control it's dissemination? And the way to do it is to not go walking around?

What is the difficult part here?

This is not tone wood discussion! There are not opinions here! THERE ARE FACTS!

One of my favorite movie quotes sums up how people are reacting during this: "People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals." There is no need to panic. Plan and prepare? Yes. Be cautious? Yes. Panic and start hoarding everything? No.

 

[J_Bass]

One of my favorite movie quotes sums up how people are reacting during this: "People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals." There is no need to panic. Plan and prepare? Yes. Be cautious? Yes. Panic and start hoarding everything? No.

I agree. Panic is dangerous. But denial and ignorance is as dangerous or worse.

 

[MJ5150]

I'm going to stick with the websites for the CDC and health department of the state I live in for up to date info about COVID-19.

-Mike

 

[cmcbass]

I live in Minnesota, and we currently have 3 confirmed cases in the state, and there is one potential case that hasn't been confirmed yet. It's definitely not media hype. I think it's important to keep track of what's happening. Some people are overreacting, and some people are being quite blasé. I'm not going to change my life and let fear control me, but I will change my habits if/when it starts spreading locally from person to person. One of the guys in my band just cancelled on our first show of the last 6 months, because he's afraid of bringing it back to his family, which I think is an overreaction at this point. But, who knows? There may be 100's of cases here within a couple weeks. Stay informed, and play it safe. It won't hurt to you wash your hands a little more often and thoroughly.

 

[Downunderwonder]

The Tool concert attendees went down with it two days after the Feb 28th concert. As far as I can tell they were not symptomatic until then. No new cases seem to have sprung from that.

The woman was 60 years old flew in from Italy on 25th Feb, went to two medical centers, then caught two domestic flights with full blown flu 2 March. If it's 10 or so days for incubation watch this space. I don't think the planes got any special cleaning until a couple of days after. It will either blow up here any day now or we dodged bullets.

 

[ajkula66]

The most important thing to do now is to avoid public gatherings, just go to work and then go straight home.

Unfortunately, for some of us going to work includes travel on crowded subways and buses which are a public gathering in their own right.

My daughter's college is closed starting tomorrow, and I could see that trend spreading nationwide.

My profession involves dealing with other people at close range 8 hours a day. I'm also in high risk category due to chronic respiratory illnesses. As of right now, I'm just trying to follow my own common sense and evaluate my next move - or series thereof - on daily basis.

Good luck to us all.

 

[fdeck]

Here's a graph that I made today. Data for reported cases comes from Johns Hopkins. Populations from Google. Note that it's a semi-log graph, which lets you eyeball exponential growth rates by looking at the slopes of the curves. China and South Korea both seem to be under control. Too soon to say for Italy and the US.

University of Wisconsin-Madison closes down for students at the end of this week, which is also the start of spring break. The students are being told: Don't come back from spring break.

In terms of getting info, I think that the major research universities are as good as the CDC, since in fact, they are part of the national research network.

I don't personally think it's a matter of what's going to happen, but only when. If the US doesn't surpass the other countries within the space of a week, then I'm going to breathe a big sigh of relief.

Edit: I found "double counting" in my analysis of the US data, which I removed. I also removed the two cruise ships for now, but am on the fence about whether to include them or not. So the data don't look quite as alarming, but it's less than a factor of two difference.

 

[Tom Bomb]

I'm going to breathe a big sigh of relief.

Do it in isolation.

 

[cmcbass]

Here's a graph that I made today. Data for reported cases comes from Johns Hopkins. Populations from Google. Note that it's a semi-log graph, which lets you eyeball exponential growth rates by looking at the slopes of the curves. China and South Korea both seem to be under control. Too soon to say for Italy and the US.

University of Wisconsin-Madison closes down for students at the end of this week, which is also the start of spring break. The students are being told: Don't come back from spring break.

In terms of getting info, I think that the major research universities are as good as the CDC, since in fact, they are part of the national research network.

I don't personally think it's a matter of what's going to happen, but only when. If the US doesn't surpass the other countries within the space of a week, then I'm going to breathe a big sigh of relief.

Thanks for the visual. It's very helpful for less scientifically inclined individuals such as myself.

 

[fig]

Led by researchers in Germany...

@J_Bass thank you much for that post in response to my question. And I understand those findings aren't peer reviewed yet.

The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said. They also challenge the idea that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread, Osterholm said.

This quote is what goes along with my suspicions, in that there are more means of transmittal that currently known. The rapid increase in the Italian numbers, to me, seems to imply this. The "simply through breathing" is kinda what I was thinking. Which makes one wonder, how far the virus can travel when airborne.

What a frakkin' mess...
(UOTY...Understatement Of The Year LOL)

 

[Gibson Victory]

The President was just on National News about this issue.

 

[MJ5150]

The CDC has already said you can get infected by coming within six feet of someone who has it. Sneezing or coughing is mentioned separately:

Person-to-person spread
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

• Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
• Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

Source: [Invalid or Expired Link Removed]

-Mike

 

[Ostie]

Could be, could also be lower. It's too soon to tell.

Why would they inflate the death rate? That would serve no purpose. Much more likely that it’s under reported.

 

[kesslari]

Good article on why we want to take this seriously and avoid doing things that allow it to spread quickly.
How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart
Not, as @Nevada Pete implies, because we all think we're going to die. But the biggest issue for most of us is a rapid spread of the disease overwhelming the public health system. And if that happens, more people *will* die, of "not getting care" because hospital beds are filled and ventilators taken up by those suffering respiratory failure due to Covid19.

 

[Tom Bomb]

Moving on is a chance that you take,
every time you try to stay together.
Say a word out of line and you find
that the friends you had are gone,
Forever …

Forever.

So many faces in and out of my life.
Some will last, some will just be now and then.
Life is a series of hellos and goodbyes.
I'm afraid it's time for goodbye again.

Say goodbye to Hollywood …

​