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Coronavirus discussion thread - NO POLITICS, or "POLITICS by PROXY"

Just to bring another point of view for the discussion, to break prejudices and misconceptions: on february 21 there was the news about what was called "patient 1", the first person officially sick from this Covid-19 living near Milan. This guy is a 38 yo robust, 190 cm tall, marathon and soccer guy. He's got out from the breathing aid tools (intense care) just two days ago (20 days in bed)! The first things he said were "where am I? What happened to me?" This virus is NOT a joke. I repeat and please, fellows: don't tell me that I'm being obnoxious (now I will shut myself). Last time: do not take it lightly.
 
Don't rely on statistics too much, statistics are based on data which governments are claiming. I'm 100% sure Iran is lying about true cases and death numbers. they are trying to keep numbers below Italy but it's way worse.
These days at least 250 people are dying per day. of course older people are at risk more than youngers but this is natural in any health problem like this. Many young people are dead. Even an female athletes in her 20s. About china I am extremely doubtful.
 
Don't rely on statistics too much, statistics are based on data which governments are claiming. I'm 100% sure Iran is lying about true cases and death numbers. they are trying to keep numbers below Italy but it's way worse.
These days at least 250 people are dying per day. of course older people are at risk more than youngers but this is natural in any health problem like this. Many young people are dead. Even an female athletes in her 20s. About china I am extremely doubtful.
Thank you for sharing this. I feared that a lot of this information is being hidden by governments to avoid panic and national vulnerability. I hope you and your family stay safe.

I guess it’s only a matter of time before it gets worse here in Britain. I think as a country we are still in denial about how bad it can get. I was very surprised to hear the current administration ban flights to Europe but not to Britain. That seems very short sighted. Yesterday we had 3 government ministers ill. They all attended parliament. If the airborne theory of infection is proven, our government could be the n trouble. My wife is now taking this seriously because Tom Hanks has it.:rollno:
 
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Thank you for sharing this. I feared that a lot of this information is being hidden by governments to avoid panic and national vulnerability. I hope you and your family stay safe.

I guess it’s only a matter of time before it gets worse here in Britain. I think as a country we are still in denial about how bad it can get. I was very surprised to hear the current administration ban flights to Europe but not to Britain. That seems very short sighted. Yesterday we had 3 government ministers ill. They all attended parliament. If the airborne theory of infection is proven, our government could be the n trouble. My wife is now taking this seriously because Tom Hanks has it.:rollno:

You bet it's serious.

Here despite the recommendations of the National Health Service, some music halls did not cancel their shows. It's totally irresponsible. Portugal is in the stage of containing the social spread of the disease.

The numbers are rising. The last number, from yesterday night, is 59. But 2 days ago was 41. Still no casualties.

We are now in mitigation stage. Go to work, go home.

I have a ticket for Dave Holland tonight, no way I am going. Next week, Snarky Puppy. I doubt they even show up. But the concert halls don't cancel it. I guess they are just hoping that people don't show up and then they don't have to refund them.

Football is at closed doors. You can tell this is been taken serious when it affects football.

This is the time for our country to control the dissemination. A part of the population is taking it serious, but another part just being stupid and continuing to go out and go to the beach, etc..

Universities closed, but schools stay open, I don't understand why.


To our TB brothers in Iran and Italy, stay safe brothers, I wish you well to you and your families. To the others, the time to act is now, do not wait.
 
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Thank you for sharing this. I feared that a lot of this information is being hidden by governments to avoid panic and national vulnerability. I hope you and your family stay safe.

I guess it’s only a matter of time before it gets worse here in Britain. I think as a country we are still in denial about how bad it can get. I was very surprised to hear the current administration ban flights to Europe but not to Britain. That seems very short sighted. Yesterday we had 3 government ministers ill. They all attended parliament. If the airborne theory of infection is proven, our government could be the n trouble. My wife is now taking this seriously because Tom Hanks has it.:rollno:

This is the way that some people relate to things around them. The WWF and other conservation efforts selectively disseminate what species they're trying to save because people probably care more about pandas and koalas than they do about some obscure subspecies of moss or spiders. In the same vein, while some people are inclined to look at the numbers (which can be doctored or otherwise also be very misleading), other people are more affected by stuff like celebrities or familiar people being affected by this sort of thing. Not everybody thinks the same way, and not every way of thinking has all of the answers.
 
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Good article on why we want to take this seriously and avoid doing things that allow it to spread quickly.
How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart
Not, as @Nevada Pete implies, because we all think we're going to die. But the biggest issue for most of us is a rapid spread of the disease overwhelming the public health system. And if that happens, more people *will* die, of "not getting care" because hospital beds are filled and ventilators taken up by those suffering respiratory failure due to Covid19.

No, what you say, sir, is not correct. Not about anything I said (unless you can show me), or, about the public health implications of the disease itself. Not in the US, anyway. In the US, "most of us" are not in jeopardy of the public health system being overwhelmed by cases of Covid19, if that's what you meant. The virus kills around 3% give or take of so-called confirmed cases. The primary group at risk of mortality are the elderly, i.e., people over 65 or 70. In that group, those with pre-existing conditions such as pneumonia or heart disease, for example, will often succumb to the disease. We must not diminish the importance of the lives of such people. The fact is, they were in the final stages of their lives, and cannot be saved. It happens.

This is a known fact, and hardly suggests that most of us here in this country are in mortal danger of Covid19, or, that our public health system is going to be overwhelmed either. The public health system was overwhelmed in Greece because of the very high percentage of elderly persons there. It was overwhelmed in China in large part on account of the government failing to react quickly to the outbreak, but instead, trying to conceal it. Li Wenliang, the whistle blower medical doctor who first realized there was a problem and attempted to speak out about it was targeted by the police and silenced, only to later succumb himself to the disease. I have already covered the air pollution situation in Wuhan, which I assure you is a strong contributing factor in their outbreak. In the US, the strategy is to identify the cases and isolate them to inhibit the spread of the disease. This has been demonstrated to be a reasonable approach and with the cooperation of the public at large will be successful in preventing the kind of nightmare experienced in China or Greece, for example, where their public health facilities were totally overwhelmed.

Yes, our public health system being overwhelmed is a concern and an issue for everybody to be aware of. But "most of us" here in the US unless we fall into the primary group at risk of death will not be at risk of mortality. We might get sick. But it won't kill us. Do we agree on that now?

I take strong exception, sir, to your allegation that I ever said or implied we, "all think we're going to die". Don't recall ever saying anything like that. Or implying it. Please show me where I said or implied, "we all think we're going to die." You can do that in a private message, if you wish. But I do expect you to do it. In fact, I insist that you do it.

This is exactly the kind of thing that's very harmful, sir, and I'm calling you out on it. You should know better than to come up with something like that. If I said anything that an educated person would reasonably construe suggested either we are all going to die, or that we all think we are going to die, there will be an apology and disclaimer put up immediately. Show me where I said anything like that, or implied it.

Everything I have said was said with the intention to avoid hysterical thinking, but instead, to educate people regarding certain aspects of this situation that are not well understood. Others have put up authenticated statistics to substantiate my comments. I have a background in health care, so that's why I took the time. I'm waiting...
 
No, what you say, sir, is not correct. Not about anything I said (unless you can show me), or, about the public health implications of the disease itself. Not in the US, anyway. In the US, "most of us" are not in jeopardy of the public health system being overwhelmed by cases of Covid19, if that's what you meant. The virus kills around 3% give or take of so-called confirmed cases. The primary group at risk of mortality are the elderly, i.e., people over 65 or 70. In that group, those with pre-existing conditions such as pneumonia or heart disease, for example, will often succumb to the disease. We must not diminish the importance of the lives of such people. The fact is, they were in the final stages of their lives, and cannot be saved. It happens.

This is a known fact, and hardly suggests that most of us here in this country are in mortal danger of Covid19, or, that our public health system is going to be overwhelmed either. The public health system was overwhelmed in Greece because of the very high percentage of elderly persons there. It was overwhelmed in China in large part on account of the government failing to react quickly to the outbreak, but instead, trying to conceal it. Li Wenliang, the whistle blower medical doctor who first realized there was a problem and attempted to speak out about it was targeted by the police and silenced, only to later succumb himself to the disease. I have already covered the air pollution situation in Wuhan, which I assure you is a strong contributing factor in their outbreak. In the US, the strategy is to identify the cases and isolate them to inhibit the spread of the disease. This has been demonstrated to be a reasonable approach and with the cooperation of the public at large will be successful in preventing the kind of nightmare experienced in China or Greece, for example, where their public health facilities were totally overwhelmed.

Yes, our public health system being overwhelmed is a concern and an issue for everybody to be aware of. But "most of us" here in the US unless we fall into the primary group at risk of death will not be at risk of mortality. We might get sick. But it won't kill us. Do we agree on that now?

I take strong exception, sir, to your allegation that I ever said or implied we, "all think we're going to die". Don't recall ever saying anything like that. Or implying it. Please show me where I said or implied, "we all think we're going to die." You can do that in a private message, if you wish. But I do expect you to do it. In fact, I insist that you do it.

This is exactly the kind of thing that's very harmful, sir, and I'm calling you out on it. You should know better than to come up with something like that. If I said anything that an educated person would reasonably construe suggested either we are all going to die, or that we all think we are going to die, there will be an apology and disclaimer put up immediately. Show me where I said anything like that, or implied it.

Everything I have said was said with the intention to avoid hysterical thinking, but instead, to educate people regarding certain aspects of this situation that are not well understood. Others have put up authenticated statistics to substantiate my comments. I have a background in health care, so that's why I took the time. I'm waiting...

I just want to say, as a health care professional and with a direct family also health care professionals, that this post is INCORRECT for the most part.

First, it's not Greece, it's Italy.

Second, and for the hundreth time, the mortality rate IS NOT the issue.

I will repeat myself as many times as necessary, unless the mods tell me to stop.
This is the only time I will quote you directly. I don't want to start a discussion that deviates from the primary goal of this thread, that is to inform everybody.

No opinions, no personal convictions, just facts. Medical facts.

First, this is nothing like Influenza.

The seazonal flue mortality rate is about 0.1%.

H1N1 caused 0.02% of deaths in 2009.

H5N2 (1957) and H3N2 (1968) caused 0.8 and 1.1% respectively.

Only the Spanish Flue caused 2 to 5 % deaths.

Also, with Influenza, there are two main things that stop it from going Pandemic. First, what is called crossed immunity. That is immunity provided from a significant part of the population from one year to another. The mutation of Influenza virus is relatively small, so this happens.
The other thing is the vaccines, of course.


None of these things will happen now with Covid19. And a vaccine will only be available the next year.

Again, the problem with this virus is not the mortality rate. The problem is the high rate of respiratory problems that it causes. There are not enough ventilators for everyone, should a national crisis happen, like is happening in Italy. The doctors there are put in the position of choosing who lives and who dies.
 
The virus kills 3.5% so not 3 give or take, but 3 and give some

21% will need hospitalisation, 5% being in Intensive care
22% over 65 is Italy, and 15% over 65 in the USA
Along with age, smoking and obesity and detrimental factors, with 36.2 of American being obese compared to 19.9 in Italy.

So hospitals will need to stop going to hospital being a risk factor. Taking up resources and
Frontline workers will be medical staff, and they cannot work and be carriers, and these resources will be hit too. Deprived sleep is also a detrimental factor, so if they become overworked, their risks increase. There will be big pressures on the Health care system.
 
The virus kills 3.5% so not 3 give or take, but 3 and give some

21% will need hospitalisation, 5% being in Intensive care
22% over 65 is Italy, and 15% over 65 in the USA
Along with age, smoking and obesity and detrimental factors, with 36.2 of American being obese compared to 19.9 in Italy.

So hospitals will need to stop going to hospital being a risk factor. Taking up resources and
Frontline workers will be medical staff, and they cannot work and be carriers, and these resources will be hit too. Deprived sleep is also a detrimental factor, so if they become overworked, their risks increase. There will be big pressures on the Health care system.

Very well said.
 
Trump owns golf courses and has employees in Britain. Notice not Russia either.
I guess it's just part of Trumps well known dislike against the EU. But who really cares. Most people I know try to stay at home and avoid contacts anyway. Only people with serious reaons are travelling.

Compared to Italy we have a relatively low rate of casualties, actually 3 in Germany. I really don't know why, because the italian autorities are executing much stricter quarantene rules than in Germany. May be the factor is just time and in one or two weeks we will see the same numbers as in Italy. I also expect that the US will see similar case numbers than Europe or Asia in just a few weeks. If Corona finds a way to New York, Chicago, Los Angeles or any major city you will see the numbers quickly going up.
 
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I guess it's just part of Trumps well known dislike against the EU. But who really cares. Most people I know try to stay at home and avoid contacts anyway. Only people with serious reaons are travelling.

Compared to Italy we have a relatively low rate of casualties, actually 3 in Germany. I really don't know why, because the italian autorities are executing much stricter quarantene rules than in Germany. May be the factor is just time and in one or two weeks we will see the same numbers as in Italy. I also expect that the US will see similar case numbers than Europe or Asia in just a few weeks. If Corona finds a way to New York, Chicago, Los Angeles or any major city you will see the numbers quickly going up.

Nobody knows, yet.

Could be another strain of the virus, could be a specific genetic polymorphism of that Italian region.
 
I guess it’s only a matter of time before it gets worse here in Britain. I think as a country we are still in denial about how bad it can get. I was very surprised to hear the current administration ban flights to Europe but not to Britain.:rollno:

There's absolutely no surprise there, this country is in denial about everything. As for the current administration not banning flights to Britain, that'll be our "special relationship." They've been promised a lot...
 
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I know it’s going to be difficult, but in order to keep this thread open, we must focus on facts about the pandemic and strategies to mitigate its effects. The fact we are trying to keep this thread open is not a repeal of the site’s moratorium on political posting.

Please do not descend into finger pointing or naming specific political figures, and definitely do not use this moment as an opportunity to mock those who you may feel have acted inappropriately. I will attempt to assist the regular forum mods keep this thread clean of politics as much as possible, but the site and its staff needs your help in order to do this. Report political postings rather than replying to them, and be patient. The moderator staff are all volunteers who are giving of their own time to help run the site, and of course are dealing with the way the virus is affecting their real lives and livelihoods the same as everyone else in the world.
 
Frankly, I think that the period when closing borders might have helped prevent spread of the Coronavirus in the US, ended sometime in January if not sooner. Slow down, maybe. Prevent, no. It's a toss up whether it will help now. I suspect that all we're left with is the "flattening the curve" strategy that's been circulating on the web. Try all means possible, to slow down the spread, so that the rate of new infections doesn't overwhelm the hospital system. This means keeping potential carriers apart, which is what's happening with policy measures being implemented at the state and local levels. Only two countries have turned this thing around.

Agreed about politics. I hope this post is read as not being about who did what when, but what can be done right now, and why these measures are needed.

Note that I updated the little graph that I posted yesterday. I was double-counting some data because of a feature in the database that I hadn't noticed. It doesn't look quite as alarming now, but still doesn't put a smile on my face... yet. Double counting creates about a 2x discrepancy at most, which is just a couple days of growth.
 
@Nevada Pete Post #376 is the post where it most recently appears that your message is "the risk of dying is low, it's mostly old people, so don't worry". (I'm not going to go back farther, but I recall getting that impression from earlier posts as well, perhaps I'm mistaken) Which implies that it's everyone's fear that they will die that is inflating the reaction to this pandemic.
Not going to argue your wording. That is how I construed your message. Perhaps others did too. If that wasn't our point, please consider the possibility that the message some people are getting from your posts is not the message you intend.
I'm not going to get into a back-and-forth on this, it's simply how I read it and a thought.
Thanks for calling me "sir".