I read the linked post and this one and i am completely on board with your perspective. And i also know the feels when you're the only one making sense and everyone else just thinks you're being negative. (But don't dare say "i told you so" when you're proven correct.)


To your point on "even free CDs collecting dust", a personal anecdote:
As mentioned in one of my
previous replies, I have all of my and my wive's DVDs on a hard drive. We never watch them. Even if we want to specifically watch a movie or show that we know is on that HDD, we look for it streaming first. And if it's not streaming, we usually don't bother to hook up the HDD to watch it. We'll watch something else. The HDD is literally on the bookshelf in the living room, next to where we watch movies on the laptop, but we can't be arsed to grab it and plug it in.
I'd posit a guess that most people walking away from a show with a CD will probably put it down somewhere, occasionally look at it go, "oh yeah, i need to import that into my library somehow sometime". Some may eventually follow through. Others might have every intention on doing it and will put the CD in a safe place but never actually import it as the CD collects dust. Others will get tired of having the clutter of something they can't import/listen to, or can't be bothered to go through the hassle of importing/listening.
To your other points (all of which i think you're right on):
- Having something to sell at gigs is nice, if people are buying, but who's buying CDs? Nobody (and a very small number of people still counts as nobody.) What's the smallest number of CDs most pressers will run? In the early 2000s it was about 300. How much would the band sell CDs for? Spread out over how many months/years before all 300 are sold? Minus the cost of pressing + recording + musician's time? Is it really worth it, even if it's in the black? Even giving them away for free will probably take months of shows. (Also, most people don't buy merch anymore, even of big touring bands.)
- CDs aren't promotion. Not only will nobody listen to them, the people you'd be giving them to are already at your show. So what are the CDs promoting? Something nobody uses anymore that nobody wants the hassle of dealing with isn't promoting the band.
So yeah, 100% everything you said. Being right all the time is tough.
