No offense, but I *was* a 16 year old who had clear choices in front of me. I could have stayed with my rock band from HS and tried to "make it", but I didn't. I got together a skillset (see Roy's posts), and found someone to pay me to do it (in my case, the federal government). To say I "made it" is a bit of a stretch, but I have made a living at it for some time now.
And guess what? If you have that skillset, (even if you're just on your way to getting that skillset), the jobs are open to you, too.
To use your analogy, if this were a thread about acting, I'd be the guy saying "You don't have to be an Oscar-winning film star to make a living as an actor."
What year was it when you were 16? I'm pretty sure 2010 won't be your answer.
If this was 1950, I'd be advising my kids to become schoolteachers. In 2010, that would be horrible advice given how poorly that job pays compared to the cost of the education required to really succeed at it. If this was 1970, I'd be advising my kids to study science and math. In 2010, science and math are pretty bleak fields for most specialties (in the United States).
Yet all of those professions are extreme solid and profitable for the people *who are already there*. If you become well established as a teacher in the 80s, that profession is rosy goodness for you. If you have been working in biology since the 70s, you probably have a pretty solid career. However, anyone trying to get their foot in the door right now is going to have to deal with the challenges of TODAY, not the challenges of the 80s. They need to deal with the college costs, job market, cost of living, and economy of TODAY, not of the 70s.
Time change. Things change. We live in the era of the internet. We live in the era of cheap sound producing electronics. There are significantly MORE musicians and significantly LESS jobs for musicians than there were before. College costs have risen at DOUBLE the rate of inflation.
Nobody is telling him "Put down the bass and do something REAL with your life!" Everyone is telling him "Have a backup plan. Build a music career out of another career if you can but don't go in without financial stability." That's common sense and reason. Putting all your eggs in one basket is not sound career advice, no matter WHAT field you are going into, let alone when one of those fields is a completely unstable, constantly shifting, and largely shrinking one like music.
I work in video games, which is actually a growing field, and I have a background in history and political science which I could very easily move into if I have to. For me to tell every kid that they can work in game design if they want to and if they work hard enough is dangerous and ridiculous advice. There aren't a lot of jobs in game design, despite that the field is growing, and anyone who shoots for it without a backup plan is asking for complete disaster. There are a MILLION kids who would love to design games, and the vast majority of designers I know NEVER WANTED TO DESIGN GAMES! They fell into the career somewhere along the way. I know level designers with degrees in architecture. There is only one commonality: These are adaptable people with diverse skillsets.
Everyone who works hard doesn't make it. That's reality. That's the world we actually live in. The people who make it are mostly people who are ADAPTABLE; People who have multiple skillsets and can shift with whatever cards life deals them. Fifty years ago you could count on getting one job with one company and doing that your whole life. That world is gone, way gone, for the vast majority of people. The modern economy rewards adaptability, not specialty. It rewards planning, including disaster planning, not complacency.
I don't want to slight your career in any way. It is very clear that you worked very hard for what you have, but it is simply unrealistic to act as though your story is proof that anyone can make it. Not every industry has a government dramatically increasing it's budget every year no matter what the results are like the military does. Virtually no industry offers the stability the military does, and you know just as well as I do that getting the job you WANT within the military is a complicated affair within itself. You have to accept that YOU are a special case in a very special situation who built his career in a different time. You are not every 16 year old in 2010 working hard on music. You are Pacman who is in his 40s and built a good life for himself