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Price Distribution: TB Classifieds

... not really in agreement on that one ... many of the ads I see on my 'local' Craigslists are often higher priced than what you would see for a comparable item here on TB ... much to do I believe with the things I mentioned on an earlier post, combined with the fact that if it was purchased locally brand new by the seller, they probably paid a higher price for the item than had they used an 'online' seller such as MF, etc ... also, they are likely to look up the 'list' price for a current similar item, and then list 'slightly' less, often times near what the item can be purchased for online 'with discounts' ...

... everything I have sold on TB has been a VERY good deal for the buyer ... I sell things at a price at or LESS then I would list them for on CL, and then I often just eat the shipping and PP, simply because I prefer to deal with a more informed buyer ...

.. with your statement, by 'good deals' you mean lower $$/value items, I would agree ... but there have been many VERY good buys here on TB, and in most cases a lot better buyer/seller knowledge and accurate disclosure ... not much is going to get past the crew here on TB if something 'fishy' is posted ... I can't say the same for CL ...

JMHO's ...

I suspect you get a steadier price range on TB than CL, because both buyers and sellers are typically better-informed. CL sellers might just be dumping something from a yard sale, or they may be totally trying to gouge the buyer with ridiculously inflated prices. You get less of both on TB. I agree with the general impressions about cheaper vs. higher-end instruments; it's a lot less hassle to just hand off a bass in person and get cash than dealing with shipping and paypal. But for something expensive or exotic, you're not likely to find a local buyer. There's a seven- or eight-string Conklin at a local pawn shop (!) that also posts it on CL. Not the kind of thing Grandpa is going to pick up for Junior.
 
Figure I'll give this thread a bump, and comment a little on the motivation behind this project.

I can't speak the financial goals of talkbass, but it seems to me it's worth knowing if and why the classifieds are losing lower end bass sales to craigslist. TB is missing out on the supporting membership revenue from people who sell on craigslist instead of here. From the discussion so far, I am satisfied with the conclusion that shipping and fees are just not worth it when you're selling a bass for less than $400. This wasn't immediately obvious to me, since I don't have any experience selling basses, and I wanted to see what the data said.

I'd love to hear about how the cost of the supporting membership was determined. I also wonder what fraction of TB revenue is from supporting memberships as opposed to ads. I guess this is my long way of saying talkbass is awesome, and I want the site to be as successful as possible. I bet the admins have done a similar analysis, but if not, I was interested so I looked into it.

I'll be posting the June data next weekend. I'll have a post later this week specifically dedicated to predictions for next month's data.

Thanks for reading,
bR
 
Here's the next installment! I've bumped up the number of classified pages from 15 to 20 since the site upgrade occurred well over a month ago. Also, looking at the dates on the classified links, it looks like you have go back about 20 pages for listings that were last bumped a week ago.

I expected the distribution to look pretty much the same as May's, just with more basses. Turns out, there was a bit of a surprise this month: a much larger fraction of basses in the $200-400 bin relative to the nearby bins. There's about 40% more basses in this bin than the $1000-1200 range, which is a flip from last month's data that sparked the discussion about shipping and fees for low cost basses. At the same time the median price increased by more than $100.

I've also been thinking about another project to reveal seasonal variations over the entire history of posts in the classifieds. I'll keep you posted.

Thanks for reading,
bR

prices_06_01_2014.png
 
I agree with your assessment on low priced basses; there's not a lot of profit to be made, or much of a bargain to be had when shipping is $50 - $80.
If I had to guess most folks dump stuff in the MIM or below range on the local Craigslist (and it's alternatives.)
Reciprocally, it seems like anything above about $600 or so on Craigslist can often sit for a while. Exceptions happen when something is HEAVILY discounted, but even then things can sit. Therefore it would make a lot of sense that anything more than $600 or so would end up here.
Just my two cents, but it's interesting to see the data modeled regardless. Great work!

I also think that another reason why lower end stuff just doesn't sell well here is because many folks here have already gone through that lower end phase.. they want something better than what they have so if they can grab say a $1500 bass for $900 then that is a good thing to them. I have also found that most of the folks here take pretty good car of their gear. I have bought 3 basses from here .. with another in the works ranging in price from $600 to 1K and all of them have been very good deals with two and potentially 3 being local. I just sold my SR 505 on CL for $300 and the add wasn't even up a day. If I posted that here it would sit for weeks probably because a lot of guys here either have an SR 505 or equivalent.. or had one.

I think the reason that more high-end/boutique basses are found in the TB Classifieds is that people are more willing to pay for shipping for a more expensive bass.

Also, sellers know that they'll probably have a better chance of finding someone who wants to buy their more expensive bass on a forum dedicated to basses, their players, and other related gear.
You're right. There's more high-end/boutique gear here. Go on your local craigslist though and the majority of basses are in the sub $500 range.

I agree with this .. and even looking on my local CL.. most of the basses are between $200-$800 and some of those prices given the basses are very optimistic.

Don't forget ... many of the high end and 'boutique' pieces that you see advertised here on TB wont even be known to the 'general' public ... anytime you have higher end gear of any sort to sell, you take it to the place where it is not only recognized, but more likely to be appreciated and potentially purchased by a larger audience of educated folk in that genre ... TB is that place when it comes to bass gear ... it is amazing how many folk out there (general public) that think a MIA Fender is THE top level bass instrument made, as that is likely what they see hanging on the top row of their local shop ... after being at this for a while, it became obvious how few folks are actually aware of what they have that they are trying to sell, and its accurate value ... they rely on their local 'shop' as the authority, or they guy down the block that used to play in a band when he was in high school to tell them what they have, or what to get ...
.. also, many of the sales that take place here on TB are components ... probably more components are sold in ratio to complete basses, which can be very misleading to any graphing done solely by 'basses' sold ... much of the lower end gear is sold that way to move the item, and minimize shipping impact, and maximize $$ return ... JMHO's

+1

... not really in agreement on that one ... many of the ads I see on my 'local' Craigslists are often higher priced than what you would see for a comparable item here on TB ... much to do I believe with the things I mentioned on an earlier post, combined with the fact that if it was purchased locally brand new by the seller, they probably paid a higher price for the item than had they used an 'online' seller such as MF, etc ... also, they are likely to look up the 'list' price for a current similar item, and then list 'slightly' less, often times near what the item can be purchased for online 'with discounts' ...

... everything I have sold on TB has been a VERY good deal for the buyer ... I sell things at a price at or LESS then I would list them for on CL, and then I often just eat the shipping and PP, simply because I prefer to deal with a more informed buyer ...

.. with your statement, by 'good deals' you mean lower $$/value items, I would agree ... but there have been many VERY good buys here on TB, and in most cases a lot better buyer/seller knowledge and accurate disclosure ... not much is going to get past the crew here on TB if something 'fishy' is posted ... I can't say the same for CL ...
JMHO's ...

Yes I agree.. One good thing about CL is that a lot of it is local so you can try before you buy..

This is a great thread..
 
Tbz has another good point...

I've sold several basses on the local classifieds. The cheaper ones went quicker with less hassle. The one that I listed at $850 sat forever. It went through several price reductions, and in the meantime had to deal with dozens of email of people offering me less than $500.

At the end of the day, I sold it for more than $500, but would I have made much more than if I had sold here after shipping, subscription, etc? Maybe not... But I would have known the people interested would have been more serious, and the sale would have happened quicker with less hassle.
Everyone wants a deal, or should I say a steal. How about offering a fair price and paying one a fair price. I seams some people don't realize just how much you lose once you walk out of the store (please know that not everyone reading this fall in this category).After buying and selling my share of basses I think hard before I buy anything on the higher end. I have to say I would not hesitate to sell or buy from a TB member, and would rather sell here (lots of good people on TB).
 
.After buying and selling my share of basses I think hard before I buy anything on the higher end. I have to say I would not hesitate to sell or buy from a TB member, and would rather sell here (lots of good people on TB).

I think this is the "other" factor. I've bought a few basses on TB they were all in the $500-$!000 range which is where we see the curve peak up. (I'll not count the $10 bass because the buy was really for pickups and the bass was thrown in for $10) This is what the recent thread called "medium price" basses which most of us here admit to being our main axes.

And my big worry is, for as many here flipping basses, fraud and trust. Experiences on EBAY have not been especially good. So I pretty much relegate Ebay to cheap (sub $200 basses) that I can afford to take a hit if things go bad. That works out pretty much. For expensive basses I have a rule that the bass need to be within road trip distance so I can pound on the sellers door if need be. Sorry no basses from California. I do prefer to play them first anyway so that makes places like GC and Music-go-round first choice. (Carvin was from California but was new and had nice return policy)

But enter TB. I broke my own rule and DID buy an expensive bass from California sight-unplayed. And the reason for bending the rules was that it was from TB classifieds and my experience with TBers has been excellent. The descriptions of gear have been accurate, prices were great, people friendly and honest, and I've never had a problem.

By and large TBers are great to do business with. There have been a couple of stories of people not describing instrument faults accurately, but this never happened to me, and I've always had to give maximum feedback because you guys treat each other (and me!) great! Thanx guys! (A situation definitely NOT found on Ebay!)

I haven't really found anything on the local Craig's list I wanted to buy.
 
Thanks again for all the positive comments!

I also think that another reason why lower end stuff just doesn't sell well here is because many folks here have already gone through that lower end phase.. they want something better than what they have so if they can grab say a $1500 bass for $900 then that is a good thing to them.

I guess this leads to the question of what is happening to these "lower end" basses that are left over when folks on here upgrade. Our previous discussion revolved around the fact that craigslist is more profitable for the seller in that you avoid fees and shipping charges. But it's an interesting point that perhaps the average TB member might be a more "advanced" player.

I haven't really found anything on the local Craig's list I wanted to buy.
+1 to this

Also, I forgot to mention one caveat in my last post. My code can't account for sale threads with multiple basses in them. Each thread is assigned one price and that is what I report in the plots. I was paging through the classifieds and found a thread with three or four basses that fall into the $200-$400 bin. So in truth, there are even more basses available in that bin this month.

In my last post, I teased another analysis that I'm working on. I've almost finished it, but it's not quite ready to post. I've collected the data on the number of sale threads started each month over the entire history of the TB classifieds (which dates to more or less September 2005). I'll start a new thread to discuss that data, and I'll post a link here when it's up.
 
In the words of Spock: "Fascinating, Captain."

I agree that shipping low-priced basses has become prohibitive, thus, local TB deals are great when they happen. Buying, selling and trading on TB is generally a very smooth and pleasant exercise, though there is the occasional person who just won't be pleased no matter what. I avoid CL like the plague. Too many scammers and deadbeats there (present company excepted, of course!).
 
I also think that another reason why lower end stuff just doesn't sell well here is because many folks here have already gone through that lower end phase.. they want something better than what they have so if they can grab say a $1500 bass for $900 then that is a good thing to them. I have also found that most of the folks here take pretty good car of their gear. I have bought 3 basses from here .. with another in the works ranging in price from $600 to 1K and all of them have been very good deals with two and potentially 3 being local. I just sold my SR 505 on CL for $300 and the add wasn't even up a day. If I posted that here it would sit for weeks probably because a lot of guys here either have an SR 505 or equivalent.. or had one.

You have a very valid point here as well; I've pretty much sworn off anything that you can get for under $700 so, at the current MF/GC/Amazon price.

I've owned a lot of gear in that range so like you mention I've already "gone through" that phase. Not knocking anyone who likes instruments at that price point, by my own results have been mixed at best so I rarely look there.

That doesn't disqualify instruments that were fairly expensive new, but now go for a song, like a 90s Ibanez SR-1200, but I'm personally definitely not looking for a SR-505, SR-400, Korean Squire, etc, ever again.
 
Yeah me too pretty much.. I can appreciate a better bass more today than I could just 5 years ago. Even though I have to say.. some of those Korean Squires are pretty darned nice.. The guy I have bought two basses from so far here on TB had a nice one that was the bass that made me appreciate the modern Squire. It was modded .. but the build was solid.. so for me being able to buy a better bass at a price that I would never have been able to afford otherwise also helps me to appreciate some of the solid build but crappy guts offerings on the lower end.. I know more what I like and what I want out of a bass today more than at any time in my life and TB is a fantastic place to test the waters at an affordable price. I have bought several basses here and even the one I bought that I had not played.. while I have to admit it did have some issues.. they were not insurmountable issues or issues so bad that I felt I was cheated.
 
You have a very valid point here as well; I've pretty much sworn off anything that you can get for under $700 so, at the current MF/GC/Amazon price.

I've owned a lot of gear in that range so like you mention I've already "gone through" that phase. Not knocking anyone who likes instruments at that price point, by my own results have been mixed at best so I rarely look there.

That doesn't disqualify instruments that were fairly expensive new, but now go for a song, like a 90s Ibanez SR-1200, but I'm personally definitely not looking for a SR-505, SR-400, Korean Squire, etc, ever again.

Well, I've already got my SR506 too, so I don't want one, but that doesn't mean I'll never buy a cheap bass on TB. For example I bought my Squire P/J special 5er here for from a fellow TBer for $200. (That's the P bass with jazz pickups...) It was a pretty bad bass and I'd never buy one to play as is, but the purpose was to use it as raw materials for a modding project. And with new pups and other hardware I created a killer PJ 5er that you just can't find anywhere. So there are reasons to buy a low end instrument even if you've already "gone through" that phase.
 
I think the reason that more high-end/boutique basses are found in the TB Classifieds is that people are more willing to pay for shipping for a more expensive bass.

Also, sellers know that they'll probably have a better chance of finding someone who wants to buy their more expensive bass on a forum dedicated to basses, their players, and other related gear.

Yep. Target marketing at its purest.
 
What happens to all the lower end basses when people upgrade? Well, you also have to ask how many basses people own and of those, how many they consider "project basses". I personally have a half-dozen of them and I would think a good number of TBers have had periods where they experimented with other styles of instruments this way.

Jazz necks mated to Precision bodies, custom paint jobs, custom pickup routing or just needing another beater for those bar gigs where you wouldn't want to take your more expensive gear.

You get good deals on gear here because A) people are more informed and know the value of things better and B) they are treating each other as they want to be treated going forward. A Craigslist sale is typically going to be a one-time deal where you likely never see or hear from the person again, and have no idea how much or how little they know about what they're buying. It's very much buyer beware, whereas listings on here not only have a feedback and reputation that is attached to your profile, but sellers presume the buyers are very knowledgeable and are going to represent the item as accurately as possible and for a reasonable price, knowing that it can be very easily compared to other listings on this very forum, or even that the instrument in question has been sold on here 3 times before. People like to buy things to try them out and if the bass isn't a keeper, they'll move it on to help another TBer have the same crack at it.

It's a great place for addicts, really.

It would be interesting if your software could sniff out the type of bass and it's selling price - you could almost come up with a blue-book price list or something if you did it over a long period of time.
 
Again, I really appreciate the interest in this thread! I kinda thought it would be dead in the water as "too nerdy."

Unfortunately, the model identification idea is going to be high hanging fruit when it comes to working with the data in the classifieds. I have at least two other tb classifieds projects that I've been thinking about that will take priority on my time.

From a practical standpoint, here's why model identification is so difficult. First, let's say you are able to identify the bass as a Fender. Great, now how much should a Fender cost? Let's say you determine the bass to be MIA. Okay, is it vintage, is it a standard model, is it a deluxe model, is it a select model, is it a vintage reissue model? Next you determine it's vintage. What year? Is it all original or were the pups replaced or was it refinished?

Next example: You determine the bass is a Carvin PB4. That seems easy enough, but does it have a bridge pickup? Does it have a fancy top? Does it have active electronics? etc.

From my view, comparing apples to apples would be extremely difficult for a computer program to do. It would be easier to answer a different but somewhat related question: How many basses in a given price range are Fenders? I think answering this question will be very doable once I complete one of the other projects I mentioned. But this wouldn't provide a blue book type price for specific models of basses. I think what you'd need to develop a bass blue book is some kind of form the seller would fill out with all the specific details about the bass such that automated data collection could be standardized.
 
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