Supply chain issues?

[basscooker]

Anyone have thoughts on the brass tacks of the industry? I've been wondering if we will likely see a bit of a price uptick in line with supply and demand.

What kind of inventories do manufacturers tent to keep on hand for hard parts from overseas? What about specifically China for neodymium, discreet components, contract sub-assemblies and even completed units?

If we do see a bump in new prices, will the used prices follow suit? Is the used market full enough to sustain a "dark" period in new manufacturing? For the vast majority of players these are still luxury items, not tools of their trade; will the amp and cab makers see a sales hit for a quarter? Two?

 

[Blankandson]

My wife worked for many years in the 90s for a supplier of anti-lock brakes for a major local manufacturer. When the Tsunami/Earthquake hit Japan the concept of "Just In Time" ended quickly, as no one had more supply than they would use up within a few weeks. The big boys changed overnight to big backup inventories. Many small to medium suppliers just went out of business including where my wife worked. Most suppliers haven't changed since then. I would imagine that with the current number of plant slow downs and/or shut downs overseas that the music industry might make a few changes also, akin to what the automotive big boys did. Talking mainly here about Japanese supply and demand. I can see a few music businesses building up a much larger inventory of spare parts and whatever else they might need in the future. Just my observation here.

 

[The_Janitor]

I think that we'll actually see MI product prices drop as companies try to stay afloat after the summer touring season was nuked, local shows are cancelled, bars/venues closed down, massive amounts of service industry workers get laid off and discretionary spending slows way down.

You'll see store closures, clearance sales, going out of business sales, etc.

 

[lomo]

^^^^^this. My guess is sales will be down and there will be inventory to be moved by retailers, pushing prices down.

 

[ihixulu]

The used market is already flooded with minty goods. It's going to get ugly for sellers.

 

[Redbrangus]

It's looking to me like there won't be another gig for a musician here in the US for at least 6 months, if even then; nobody's gonna be buying nothing for a while, IMO. Supply chain issues seem like a small issue compared to the economic contraction that's already begun. We're in for a really bumpy ride-- IMHO.

 

[Passinwind]

Anyone have thoughts on the brass tacks of the industry? I've been wondering if we will likely see a bit of a price uptick in line with supply and demand.

What kind of inventories do manufacturers tent to keep on hand for hard parts from overseas? What about specifically China for neodymium, discreet components, contract sub-assemblies and even completed units?

I just checked with a couple of my vendors last night. Mouser says they are mostly very well stocked and they expect their part suppliers to meet due dates for the most part. Some of the stuff I need was previously backordered until April or May, so time will tell. My circuit board vendor says business as usual, but I'm not clear on whether service might be slower or possibly even faster now, since their fab vendors may well be in need of more work right now.

 

[agedhorse]

It's looking to me like there won't be another gig for a musician here in the US for at least 6 months, if even then; nobody's gonna be buying nothing for while, IMO. Supply chain issues seem like a small issue compared to the economic contraction that's already begun. We're in for a really bumpy ride-- IMHO.

I lost a 2 week summer gig already, and I expect that my other gig, a 4 week gig will soon follow. Both are big multi system events. If so, it will be the first time I haven't had a summer sound gig in 43 years.

I have a warehouse full of pro audio gear (including a bigger line array system), some of it looking for a new home. I don't think this season will be a good one to place gear on the market, and depending on what happens in the touring world, things may not be any better next season either.

 

[bobcruz]

... I have a warehouse full of pro audio gear (including a bigger line array system), some of it looking for a new home. ...

I have some toilet paper I can trade you.

 

[Redbrangus]

I sold my small-potatoes SR operation to a colleague/competitor company two years ago; they've had their calendar wiped clean for the foreseeable future. I have no idea how they'll make their payments, including what they owe me in a structured buyout.

 

[Paulabass]

Everybody else's economy crashed.
Musician's economy crashed, burned on the ground, and the ashes got swept into a deep hole, covered over, and tamped down.
Prices will tumble when musicians can't afford strings.

 

[turcmic]

And the Canadian dollar is going down...

I work in the investment business. Not looking good right now for at least a couple of weeks. I have partners in the entertainment business plus many musician friends. Not funny.

Hopefully, our (Quebec) government is acting strongly. But spring gigs are being cancelled. Let’s hope summer gigs will be ok.

 

[pfschim]

as far as supply chain goes, I can say that I was in the market for a new laptop. Watched prices for the past 3-4 months. Usual Christmas/Black Friday sales, then the Presidents Day sales, then about 3 weeks ago I pulled the trigger via the brand website (Dell), they quoted me 6 weeks delivery (!) .. for a standard build on a high end product. Doing some checking/research I realized they (and other computer builder brands) were experiencing CPU shortages ... particularly for the higher end parts. So, at least in the consumer electronics market there does seem to be some issues with supply chain. Not sure if that translates to the MI, but I'm guessing it does.

good news for me was that I found another site (Costco) which had the laptop/config I was seeking and they had it to me in 3 days. I'm guessing that as a giant wholesaler, they had warehoused standard config units locally