When is a guitar vintage? And when does the value increase?

[DBCrocky]

There's a difference between vintage and old. A Walmart bass never becomes vintage.

Some of them Sears Silvertone instuments managed to become vintage.

 

[JakeAndAirwaves]

Some of them Sears Silvertone instuments managed to become vintage.

The new silvertones are really bad. If it isn't wanted now, it won't be wanted then.

 

[sammyp]

I'd assume the largest problem with 70s and 80s was an effort build more, faster and cheaper than ever before.....by the time the 60s were in full swing it would've been pretty clear electric instruments were here for good.

 

[Alan Ace Cooper]

Sadly, I think modern day, Music Man is a victim of this activity. The wood and finish quality of many of their, Non Guitar Center offerings, is far better on average. Many of their Birdseye Maples, beautiful burst finishes over nice Ash pieces were forsaken for lesser quality woods, covered in sparkle and odd color choices. MM basses you would find, at say... Bass Central, lets you know that someone there @ Ernie Ball is still making the good stuff.

 

[kesslari]

I'd assume the largest problem with 70s and 80s was an effort build more, faster and cheaper than ever before.....by the time the 60s were in full swing it would've been pretty clear electric instruments were here for good.

There was definitely a big problem with American mfg in the '70's (yes, there is a huge drop in quality between American car's from '72 and before and '73 until the mid 80's, and yeah, I was around).
Honestly, I think that a lot of it came from smugness. As a nation and as a manufacturing entity we had kicked everyone's butts for about 3 decades, or at least for the first 2 (and we didn't realize that the rest of the world was fast catching up). We'd put a man on the moon. Nobody else could say that (or could have done it). "Made in Japan" in the '60's had the stigma that "Made in Indonesia" had now - the Japanese were roaring up alongside us in the manufacturing race but we still perceived them as makers of junk. So many of the larger US businesses got very fat, smug, and complacent.
They allowed quality to dip because they thought they'd sell products anyway, and were blindsided when consumers started buying better, cheaper, foreign-made goods.

 

[cchorney]

Its all about demand, which is usually all about recreating either an experience or someone else's sound. I've got an absolutely gorgeous late 60's Aria violin body fretless. Its about as rare as can be and will likely never be worth more than a few hundred, as it wasn't that popular when it was built, either with pros or enthusiasts.

 

[Solarmist]

When does the value increase? After Geddy signs it.

 

[Chuck King]

Vintage is simply a function of age, and as someone said, usually kicks in at around 25 years. This may be connected to the fact that that generally coincides with the time difference between a young person's formative years and that person entering middle age and, in many cases, being nostalgic about youth and finally being able to afford the things he/she lusted after but couldn't afford then.

Part of vintage appeal is also that whatever it is is not still readily available. For instance, the earliest MIM Fenders are reaching that point, but I doubt they will gain much "vintage" cachet because (a) they didn't change much over the years, so there's not even much perceived functional difference between a new MIM and an old MIM; (b) to the extent there is a difference, the old ones are not necessarily considered "better", and (c) there are a jillion of them out there, so even if they do have some cachet, there's no exclusivity to them, which is another factor in having a vintage instrument.

As far as value goes, that is largely driven by demand outstripping supply. Demand is driven by a number of factors, including fashion (popular models are in greater demand than unpopular models) and perceived quality (e.g., conventional wisdom holds that [pre-CBS, pre-Norlin, etc.] instruments are better quality than later models). However, there is definitely an element of demand for stuff simply because it's old. There is a sizeable segment of the market that wants old stuff. That may be another factor in "vintage": the 25-year time period is about a generation, i.e., enough time that a new crop of kids have grown up who didn't know first-hand what horrible junk some of that old stuff was. Granted, some instruments that were derided back in the day were actually pretty good---many 70s Japanese instruments, 50s and 60s Harmonys, etc. But, there were a lot of instruments that were derided because they really were awful, but I see them selling now for ridiculous amounts of money.

Part of that may come from people wanting vintage instruments, because vintage is cool, but not being able to afford the really desirable vintage gear. So they go for something equally old but less popular.

 

[Josh Pelican]

I consider a bass vintage when it's older than me (especially twice my age).

For the record, I'm 23.

 

[gnjpowell]

It becomes vintage when buyers consider it to be vintage and are willing to pay for it. Don't think my ex 1970s-era Sears & Rubbish bass would ever be vintage. Doubt many collectors are looking for Sears basses either...

 

[Alan Ace Cooper]

@ Josh P. - Hahahaa... I Used to feel the same way. Now things that are considered Vintage, ARE my age! I'd love to have a 1963 Fender Jazz Bass, I just don't plan on taking out the equity in my condo or use my car (half it's value) as a down payment. I'd have no clue where I could play a bass of that value, besides in my house or in the studio.

 

[kjpollo]

I have 2 "vintage" Peavey's- a T40 and a T20. But just because they are vintage doesnt mean they are rare or overly sought-after.

Great basses and definitely vintage but not valuable.
And like a lot of others have said, there are so many more of today's instruments available its extremely unlikely that any of them will ever appreciate in value.

 

[hotrodjohn]

Instruments were not the only American made products to suffer post '69.

American motorcycles and automobiles also suffered during this era.

Thankfully, as Roger pointed out things started to improve in the mid to late '80s.

Currently I feel that these same American built products are second to none in quality on the world's market.

I've recently pondered whether the popularity of recreational drugs in the '70s by assemply line and factory employees may have contributed to problem.

At 51 I'm of an age to remember that decade of decadence.

From what I am told, the dope now is a lot better than the dope in the 70's, so I don't think that argument holds water

 

[NKUSigEp]

Roger, I've read about this several times before, and don't understand what happened. Could you give some insight into this phenomenon? I understand the pre/post CBS era Fender argument, but what was it about that era that affected most major manufacturers and their products at that time?

The oil embargo, civil unrest, resources and manpower diverted to Vietnam and other places, recreational drug use and numerous other factors were all contributors but what I personally believe is the reason for the temporary decline in the quality of manufactured goods was a shift from taking up a job or apprenticeship during or right after high school to graduating high school and then attending some sort of post-secondary education. Society also shifted from using mostly mechanical items to using more electronic items during that period as well. That and a lot of jobs were shipped overseas as well.

 

[john_martin_sai]

I'd assume the largest problem with 70s and 80s was an effort build more, faster and cheaper than ever before....

In the modern era (with China, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, etc - you can multiply that factor by at least 10.

 

[smcd]

I have 2 "vintage" Peavey's- a T40 and a T20. But just because they are vintage doesnt mean they are rare or overly sought-after.

Great basses and definitely vintage but not valuable.
And like a lot of others have said, there are so many more of today's instruments available its extremely unlikely that any of them will ever appreciate in value.

There are many more Fender basses from the late 70's/early 80's than there are T-40's. And T-40's are overall much better built than Fenders of that era. Yet Fender basses command 5 to 6 times the price of a T-40.

The collector market is fickle and unpredictable. And VERY much brand conscious.

 

[wrench45us]

what may be forgotten was the increase in demand for guitars was phenomenal starting in the late 60s. I've seen the numbers, but I don't have them at hand, but if you saw the numbers per units shipped per year, the decline in quality woould be clear.

Just about everbody I knew was in a band or wanted to be in a band. That's a lot of guitars (and Farfisas and Vox Continentals). Manufacturing had to ramp up and quality suffered until improved manufacturing methods were implemented.

 

[john_martin_sai]

Vintage guitars are much like any collectibles.

Take 'baseball cards' for instance.

Once big money became attached to old baseball cards (in the mid-1980's) demand and manufacturing skyrocketed suddenly. From basically TOPPS cards became at least a dozen more major card companies.

Mickey Mantle was no better than Albert Puhols. But there are 10,000 Albert Puhols rookie cards to every Mickey Mantle rookie card. Just like there are 1000 modern Stratocasters to every existing and functional 1970's Stratocaster.

The quality of the cards today (with superior cardstock, improved photography, graphics, holography, computer chips etc) are lightyears ahead of the cards produced in the 1950's-70's.

Yet Albert Puhols' cards will never eclipse Mickey Mantle's cards in value.

Supply and demand.

 

[john_martin_sai]

I've recently pondered whether the popularity of recreational drugs in the '70s by assemply line and factory employees may have contributed to problem.

At 51 I'm of an age to remember that decade of decadence.

I'm thinking more than a few '20-somethings' today are currently experiencing their own 'decade of decadence'. And like someone else mentioned, the quality of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, etc are much more potent than decades ago. And there are numerous 'designer' drugs (like Ecstacy) that weren't even in existence in the 60's-80's.

People were no more 'stoned' back then than they are today.

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[kjpollo]

Vintage guitars are much like any collectibles.

Take 'baseball cards' for instance.

Once big money became attached to old baseball cards (in the mid-1980's) demand and manufacturing skyrocketed suddenly. From basically TOPPS cards became at least a dozen more major card companies.

Mickey Mantle was no better than Albert Puhols. But there are 10,000 Albert Puhols rookie cards to every Mickey Mantle rookie card. Just like there are 1000 modern Stratocasters to every existing and functional 1970's Stratocaster.

The quality of the cards today (with superior cardstock, improved photography, graphics, holography, computer chips etc) are lightyears ahead of the cards produced in the 1950's-70's.

Yet Albert Puhols' cards will never eclipse Mickey Mantle's cards in value.

Supply and demand.

AWESOME analogy!!! Wish I thought of it since I used to collect vintage sports cards!
But 100% accurate!!!