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Professionally speaking, this is a suicidal message. You must be really, really stupid to affix something like that in your shop. I do agree that some people panicked too much, but the outbreak is real.
They're going to need tp after a week straight of MREs.
Impact of the epidemic in the US
Now that new COVID-19 cases are being detected in the U.S. every day, it is too late to stop the initial wave of infections. The epidemic is likely to spread across the U.S. The virus appears to be [Invalid or Expired Link Removed] as influenza. But this comparison is difficult to make since we have no immunity to the new coronavirus.
On balance, it is reasonable to guess that COVID-19 will infect as many Americans over the next year Invalid Link Removed – somewhere between 25 million and 115 million. Maybe a bit more if the virus turns out to be more contagious than we thought. Maybe a bit less if we put restrictions in place that minimize our travel and our social and professional contacts.
The bad news is, of course, that these infection numbers translate to 350,000 to 660,000 people dying in the U.S., with an uncertainty range that goes from 50,000 deaths to 5 million deaths. The good news is that this is not a weather forecast. The size of the epidemic, i.e., the total number of infections, is something we can reduce if we decrease our contact patterns and improve our hygiene. If the total number of infections decreases, the total number of deaths will also decrease.
What science cannot tell us right now is exactly which measures will be most effective at slowing down the epidemic and reducing its impact. If I stop shaking hands, will that cut my probability of infection by a half? A third? Nobody knows. If I work from home two days a week, will this reduce my probability of infection by 40%? Maybe. But we don’t even know the answer to that.
What we should prepare for now is reducing our exposures – i.e., our chances of coming into contact with infected people or infected surfaces – any way that we can. For some people this will mean staying home more. For others it will mean adopting more stringent hygiene practices. An extreme Invalid Link Removed of this exposure reduction – including mandatory quarantine, rapid diagnosis and isolation, and closing of workplaces and schools – seems to have worked in Hubei province in China, where the epidemic spread appears to have slowed down.
For now, Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different. Vacations may have to be canceled. Social interactions will look different. And risk management is something we’re going to have to think about every morning when we wake up. The coronavirus epidemic is not going to extinguish itself. It is not in another country. It is not just the cold and flu. And it is not going away.
The pollen counts are already rising. It won't help with the obsessive paranoia over the coronavirus right now. Having said that, a couple of winters ago a guy in Walmart let out a sneeze that covered 2 isles. I got a nasty cold right after, and hadn't had one in years. You can't keep away from sneezes or coughs easily.washing hands can only go so far. last friday, a checkout guy who was holding two pieces of clothing coughed directly ito my face
since he continued making cold sounds afterward, i hope he had an allergy rather than covid 19 or the flu.
I’d refer you to the excellent link above by an epidemiologist who is quoting data from leading experts. The estimate, and I’ve heard this from colleagues in the NHS as well, is that it’s 10 to 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. It’s still a low percentage, but make no mistake it is a lot worse than we’re used to and could, potentially, lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths rather than tens of thousands.My opinion is the death rate is overblown. There are more people infected than have been tested and confirmed. This results in an artificially high rate.
On a side note, my wife has family in Cyprus and the church there has just put on Facebook a statement that you can’t catch it from the communion wine and wafer!! Talk about ignorance and irresponsible messages!
Maybe I used a misleading term with overblown. More lethal than the the seasonal flu, yes. It's the COVID-19 reported rate I was referring to, that I think is artificially high simply due to the math of not including the un-diagnosed cases in the calculation.I’d refer you to the excellent link above by an epidemiologist who is quoting data from leading experts. The estimate, and I’ve heard this from colleagues in the NHS as well, is that it’s 10 to 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. It’s still a low percentage, but make no mistake it is a lot worse than we’re used to and could, potentially, lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths rather than tens of thousands.
On a side note, my wife has family in Cyprus and the church there has just put on Facebook a statement that you can’t catch it from the communion wine and wafer!! Talk about ignorance and irresponsible messages!
Undoubtedly, we’ll never know. So we have to go by the information at hand which is shaky to say the least. China changed its diagnosis criteria after a few weeks which set everyone back to zero reliable data. Not to mention the unreliable government source to begin with. As you say, not everyone with a cough is going to report it or get checked. It’s guesswork at best but it has the potential to be bad. We need to inform and educate. That’s going to scare some folk, particularly those in vulnerable groups. But better that they’re informed and people know what to do than we pretend it’s not a problem and carry on spreading it. I agree with your original statement, I’m just cautious that this could still get a lot worse.Maybe I used a misleading term with overblown. More lethal than the the seasonal flu, yes. It's the COVID-19 reported rate I was referring to, that I think is artificially high simply due to the math of not including the un-diagnosed cases in the calculation.