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Coronavirus discussion thread - NO POLITICS, or "POLITICS by PROXY"

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It’s not a roll of the dice. We’re talking about a living organism and like every other living thing on the planet, it’s intention is to survive and multiply. Prevention is your best weapon. Don’t touch anything you don’t have to and if you do, wash your hands very thoroughly as soon as you can. It is highly contagious and survives outside the body for quite a while so hand hygiene is essential. I’m 70 and definitely in a high risk group. I’m playing it very safe.
 
Approximately a week before the massive Covid-19 spread in Lazio region, I've been very sick for 3 days straight. Let me say that considering my movements, my habits and the actual context, the chances that I could have gotten the virus were extremely low, but I got a little bit worried.
I woke up in the morning with massive fever and a little bit of shortness of breath, which isn't normal for me. I'm a sportsman and exercise 3/4 times a week, so I realized that something was wrong.
I called my doctor and basically I put myself in quarantine, immediately. I took some Paracetamol and when the fever started to flag, I started to feel what was happening. I was having major itch to my eyes and palate and I sneezed a lot. That was allergy, in combination with an harmless fever, that I probably got in the gym.
After my doctor visited me and said I was perfectly fine, I came back to work. I was prepared to stay home for weeks, if necessary, but luckily for me it wasn't the case.
I don't think many people would do the same thing here, to be honest.
 
Let's say you're living in a red zone, ok?
Let's say you constantly follow the news, keep calm, protect yourself and keep living your life with caution and composure.
Let's say you're not one of those "morons" who bought provisions like the World War III was coming.
Let's say one day you go to the shop and you find NOTHING.
Now ask yourself: "Who's the moron".

Panic is always wrong, but there's a reason why some people do these things.
 
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I live very near to a red zone.

My wife works at the main hospital who is dealing with the problem. She's not in direct contact, but the hospital is the same.

I am also a health care professional. Private practice and University teacher at the campus where the hospital is. Some Faculties already closed. My brother in law works at the other major hospital and is also a University teacher. That faculty closed, as well. My faculty, as well as the integrated clinic, is still open, but with huge restrictions.

So yes, we bought provisions. With two kids and a baby we would be very stupid and irresponsible if we did not.
 
Face masks? Same exact thing.
We all know that they can't protect you completely, but they're definitely useful. Especially if you're not infected but live in a red zone, if you know what I mean.
There's the possibility that in 2/3 weeks I can't even go outside my house to get some food. Why? Because some "morons" bought all the masks while I was at home listening to the media saying that "it's just a flu, don't panic!".
Again: who's the moron now?
 
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This is a virus. It's somewhat like the flu virus, but seems to have a bit higher mortality rate, probably due to the fact that we don't have a vaccine for it yet. Like the flu virus, the Coronavirus seems to have a number of different strains, and vaccines may turn out to be more or less effective depending on variations in the strain.

It's a communicable disease, and like other such diseases, it's not going away. We will live with it, manage it, and go on with life, just like we do with a variety of other viruses.

In the meantime, it is prudent to minimize our exposure to it. It is NOT prudent to treat it like smallpox, polio or the end of the world. People are a lot more freaked about it than they need to be.
 
Impact of the epidemic in the US

Now that new COVID-19 cases are being detected in the U.S. every day, it is too late to stop the initial wave of infections. The epidemic is likely to spread across the U.S. The virus appears to be [Invalid or Expired Link Removed] as influenza. But this comparison is difficult to make since we have no immunity to the new coronavirus.

On balance, it is reasonable to guess that COVID-19 will infect as many Americans over the next year Invalid Link Removed – somewhere between 25 million and 115 million. Maybe a bit more if the virus turns out to be more contagious than we thought. Maybe a bit less if we put restrictions in place that minimize our travel and our social and professional contacts.

The bad news is, of course, that these infection numbers translate to 350,000 to 660,000 people dying in the U.S., with an uncertainty range that goes from 50,000 deaths to 5 million deaths. The good news is that this is not a weather forecast. The size of the epidemic, i.e., the total number of infections, is something we can reduce if we decrease our contact patterns and improve our hygiene. If the total number of infections decreases, the total number of deaths will also decrease.

What science cannot tell us right now is exactly which measures will be most effective at slowing down the epidemic and reducing its impact. If I stop shaking hands, will that cut my probability of infection by a half? A third? Nobody knows. If I work from home two days a week, will this reduce my probability of infection by 40%? Maybe. But we don’t even know the answer to that.

What we should prepare for now is reducing our exposures – i.e., our chances of coming into contact with infected people or infected surfaces – any way that we can. For some people this will mean staying home more. For others it will mean adopting more stringent hygiene practices. An extreme Invalid Link Removed of this exposure reduction – including mandatory quarantine, rapid diagnosis and isolation, and closing of workplaces and schools – seems to have worked in Hubei province in China, where the epidemic spread appears to have slowed down.

For now, Americans need to prepare themselves that the next 12 months are going to look very different. Vacations may have to be canceled. Social interactions will look different. And risk management is something we’re going to have to think about every morning when we wake up. The coronavirus epidemic is not going to extinguish itself. It is not in another country. It is not just the cold and flu. And it is not going away.
 
washing hands can only go so far. last friday, a checkout guy who was holding two pieces of clothing coughed directly ito my face :(

since he continued making cold sounds afterward, i hope he had an allergy rather than covid 19 or the flu.
The pollen counts are already rising. It won't help with the obsessive paranoia over the coronavirus right now. Having said that, a couple of winters ago a guy in Walmart let out a sneeze that covered 2 isles. I got a nasty cold right after, and hadn't had one in years. You can't keep away from sneezes or coughs easily.
Edit: people with allergies may have to wear labels saying so to help prevent general anxiety in others.
 
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If people are going to panic, then arm yourself with knowledge and take action. Keep your hands clean and don't pick your nose. Use hand sanitizer when touching anything in public. Bring your own hand wipes for when the stores don't have any. Wash your hands after pumping gas. No need to run circles with flailing arms in the street.

From what I can filter through the media, this is another strain of the flu virus. Take the same precautions and use the same common sense. It's a respiratory virus. You likely don't die from it directly, you die from complications like pneumonia if you have an impaired immune system or have other problems. Hence the higher impact on the old and unhealthy.

My opinion is the quoted death rate is not as bad as what's reported. There are more people infected than have been tested and confirmed. This results in an artificially high rate.

Rock on...
 
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My opinion is the death rate is overblown. There are more people infected than have been tested and confirmed. This results in an artificially high rate.
I’d refer you to the excellent link above by an epidemiologist who is quoting data from leading experts. The estimate, and I’ve heard this from colleagues in the NHS as well, is that it’s 10 to 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. It’s still a low percentage, but make no mistake it is a lot worse than we’re used to and could, potentially, lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths rather than tens of thousands.

On a side note, my wife has family in Cyprus and the church there has just put on Facebook a statement that you can’t catch it from the communion wine and wafer!! Talk about ignorance and irresponsible messages!
 
On a side note, my wife has family in Cyprus and the church there has just put on Facebook a statement that you can’t catch it from the communion wine and wafer!! Talk about ignorance and irresponsible messages!

IMO it's not going to be the virus that kills us as much as the viral spread of misinformation.

There are already lots of "funny" memes going around about how buying toilet paper isn't going to keep you from getting sick. That's right, it won't. What it will do is keep you from having to leave your house if you are quarantined for two weeks, so that you don't get lots of OTHER people sick. It would be nice if we could stop ridiculing people for wanting to be responsible.
 
My greatest fear: people are going to cause themselves and others a lot of pain and misery because of unjustified fear and lack of common sense about this. Fear can sink the economy, cause hording of food, shortage of medicines, fill up doctor's offices and emergency rooms, cause increased mental illness among the anxious and depressed among us. Thanks to 24 hour a day tabloid news and the herd mentality. I'm not going to live hiding in my basement in terror watching CNN all day while bathing in hand sanitizer. I've got music to play and people to see :)
 
I’d refer you to the excellent link above by an epidemiologist who is quoting data from leading experts. The estimate, and I’ve heard this from colleagues in the NHS as well, is that it’s 10 to 20 times more lethal than seasonal flu. It’s still a low percentage, but make no mistake it is a lot worse than we’re used to and could, potentially, lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths rather than tens of thousands.

On a side note, my wife has family in Cyprus and the church there has just put on Facebook a statement that you can’t catch it from the communion wine and wafer!! Talk about ignorance and irresponsible messages!
Maybe I used a misleading term with overblown. More lethal than the the seasonal flu, yes. It's the COVID-19 reported rate I was referring to, that I think is artificially high simply due to the math of not including the un-diagnosed cases in the calculation.
 
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Maybe I used a misleading term with overblown. More lethal than the the seasonal flu, yes. It's the COVID-19 reported rate I was referring to, that I think is artificially high simply due to the math of not including the un-diagnosed cases in the calculation.
Undoubtedly, we’ll never know. So we have to go by the information at hand which is shaky to say the least. China changed its diagnosis criteria after a few weeks which set everyone back to zero reliable data. Not to mention the unreliable government source to begin with. As you say, not everyone with a cough is going to report it or get checked. It’s guesswork at best but it has the potential to be bad. We need to inform and educate. That’s going to scare some folk, particularly those in vulnerable groups. But better that they’re informed and people know what to do than we pretend it’s not a problem and carry on spreading it. I agree with your original statement, I’m just cautious that this could still get a lot worse.
 
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