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NHL Season 2021
- Thread starter MJ5150
- Start date
The East is pretty much a consensus of Boston and Washington in the top two spots, and most agree Buffalo & NJ will occupy the bottom two slots. The remaining four (Pit, Phi, NYI, NYR) are anybody's guess. My own thoughts are there won't be but a few points separating those four teams.
Ditto the West, where Colorado & VGK are expected to be 1 & 2, and the three California teams slotted at the bottom. I think St. Louis can threaten to sneak in the top two but it would take a consistent effort and also require VGK to slip up a bit.
North...It appears to be Toronto's season to win a division, but that's never a safe bet. Although Ottawa is picked last by most (if not all) pundits, I think they have a chance of surprising us. Not majorly, but enough to get out of the cellar a notch or two. And one can never know if Winnipeg will rise or fall...they're notoriously difficult to predict.
Central...after TB, the Hurricanes seem to be the second best team, although we'll see Dallas right there, too. CBJ is always tough to predict, but they have a good solid core and need to come to play every night instead of taking a night off here and there. Not much argument that Detroit still needs more time to start climbing in the standings again. Hard to bet against Stevie Y, but nothing's happening this year in the Motor City.
Ditto the West, where Colorado & VGK are expected to be 1 & 2, and the three California teams slotted at the bottom. I think St. Louis can threaten to sneak in the top two but it would take a consistent effort and also require VGK to slip up a bit.
North...It appears to be Toronto's season to win a division, but that's never a safe bet. Although Ottawa is picked last by most (if not all) pundits, I think they have a chance of surprising us. Not majorly, but enough to get out of the cellar a notch or two. And one can never know if Winnipeg will rise or fall...they're notoriously difficult to predict.
Central...after TB, the Hurricanes seem to be the second best team, although we'll see Dallas right there, too. CBJ is always tough to predict, but they have a good solid core and need to come to play every night instead of taking a night off here and there. Not much argument that Detroit still needs more time to start climbing in the standings again. Hard to bet against Stevie Y, but nothing's happening this year in the Motor City.
There...fixed that for ya.
All kidding aside, what exactly did the Rangers GM have in mind when he signed JJ after the showing in Pittsburgh the past two years?
For Vancouver Canucks:
LOSSES:
- Markstrom wanted a NMC and money. We couldn't afford either with the Seattle expansion draft coming up. Clearly their eyes are for Demko as the future starter. If not for Seattle, we could've given him that NMC and not worry about losing a star goalie but unsure about money. We're tight with the cap as is.
- Tanev has been a heart and soul guy but up until the 2019-2020 season, he has not had one single healthy season. Changes to his protective gear has helped improve that stat a bit but he's slower, more of a stay-at-home defenseman, and not that great of a skater. If Calgary fans expect him to score goals often, then they're going to be disappointed.
- Stecher was purely for sentimental and hometown reasons. Yes, he's loved in Vancouver but professionally, he's not that great of a defenseman. Losing him hurt the least out of the three.
- Oh and Tyler Toffoli. Eh. What we traded for him sucked a lot and the fact he didn't sign back here also sucked but, again, flat cap and oh, I don't know, we have Demko, Hughes, and Pettersson all due for raises in the 20-21 offseason soooo...
ADDITIONS
- Braden Holtby: purely expansion bait. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get taken by Seattle but we'll see. Yes, he's had some miserable seasons since the Caps won in 2018, but the Capitals' defense was atrocious the last two years. I'm confident he can reach his consistently good goaltending form with Ian Clark, our goalie coach. Not Vezina-level goaltending, but good enough where I get nervous if he plays.
- Nate Schmidt. What a steal for a 2022 3rd pick. WAYYYY better upgrade over Stecher and Tanev combined. Excited to see who he pairs up with...likely Edler first or Myers but some might think he can pair up with Hughes. Schmidt is an offensive minded D-man so putting him with Hughes might not be the best option. My best bet is putting him with Edler; Edler is good at the SAH so why not let Schmidt excel in the offensive part in that pairing? We'll see.
- Travis Hamonic (PTO): Flames fans didn't like him but IDK why. Didn't look too much into him the past few seasons but he can't be worse than Stecher...or Pouliot...or Gudbranson...or Del Zotto...the list goes on and on and on....
LOSSES:
- Markstrom wanted a NMC and money. We couldn't afford either with the Seattle expansion draft coming up. Clearly their eyes are for Demko as the future starter. If not for Seattle, we could've given him that NMC and not worry about losing a star goalie but unsure about money. We're tight with the cap as is.
- Tanev has been a heart and soul guy but up until the 2019-2020 season, he has not had one single healthy season. Changes to his protective gear has helped improve that stat a bit but he's slower, more of a stay-at-home defenseman, and not that great of a skater. If Calgary fans expect him to score goals often, then they're going to be disappointed.
- Stecher was purely for sentimental and hometown reasons. Yes, he's loved in Vancouver but professionally, he's not that great of a defenseman. Losing him hurt the least out of the three.
- Oh and Tyler Toffoli. Eh. What we traded for him sucked a lot and the fact he didn't sign back here also sucked but, again, flat cap and oh, I don't know, we have Demko, Hughes, and Pettersson all due for raises in the 20-21 offseason soooo...
ADDITIONS
- Braden Holtby: purely expansion bait. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get taken by Seattle but we'll see. Yes, he's had some miserable seasons since the Caps won in 2018, but the Capitals' defense was atrocious the last two years. I'm confident he can reach his consistently good goaltending form with Ian Clark, our goalie coach. Not Vezina-level goaltending, but good enough where I get nervous if he plays.
- Nate Schmidt. What a steal for a 2022 3rd pick. WAYYYY better upgrade over Stecher and Tanev combined. Excited to see who he pairs up with...likely Edler first or Myers but some might think he can pair up with Hughes. Schmidt is an offensive minded D-man so putting him with Hughes might not be the best option. My best bet is putting him with Edler; Edler is good at the SAH so why not let Schmidt excel in the offensive part in that pairing? We'll see.
- Travis Hamonic (PTO): Flames fans didn't like him but IDK why. Didn't look too much into him the past few seasons but he can't be worse than Stecher...or Pouliot...or Gudbranson...or Del Zotto...the list goes on and on and on....
It really is unbelievable that Gorton could find a sucker team to trade for Marc Staal and then replace him with an even worse player in Jack Johnson. Here's the deal, the Rangers defense has a good first pair in Fox and Lindgren. They are both young and very solid and will get huge minutes. The second pair of Trouba and DeAngelo has the potential to be dynamic offensively and horrific defensively. DeAngelo is being asked to switch sides and may not do well playing on his opposite side. He will have to show that he can if he wants to stay with the team. The third pair is going to be Brendan Smith and Jack Johnson, they will get minimal ice time and hopefully K' Andre Miller is the real deal and can replace Johnson sooner than later.There...fixed that for ya.
All kidding aside, what exactly did the Rangers GM have in mind when he signed JJ after the showing in Pittsburgh the past two years?
Congrats to the USA for gold at the World Juniors. Completely stumped the Canadians for once in the tournament. Zargas, Byram, Levi, and Knight looked amazing throughout the whole thing. I hope for the best in their careers!
Now...onto the NHL Season!
Now...onto the NHL Season!
Full marks to USA Juniors...played a great game, did not let Canada have anything in close, and took advantage of their opportunities. Well played and well deserved. That kid Knight has a very bright future ahead of him.
Out of curiosity....does anyone here pay attention to fancy stats? (Advanced analytics). These are unofficial but I do believe teams are starting to take them more seriously.
A lot of SB Nation team blogs and podcasts will break these down game by game.
In my absence from Talkbass I’ve been paying more and more attention to the fancy stats. I like to look at team and player Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and Expected Goals (xG) to gauge effectiveness and who carries play.
There’s also Adjusted Expected Goals that accounts for in game situations (is it a blowout? Is a team trailing by a goal putting on the pressure in the last 10 of the 3rd period?).
Here’s a good primer.
Beginner’s Guide to Advanced Hockey Statistics – Northwestern Sports Analytics Group
A lot of SB Nation team blogs and podcasts will break these down game by game.
In my absence from Talkbass I’ve been paying more and more attention to the fancy stats. I like to look at team and player Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and Expected Goals (xG) to gauge effectiveness and who carries play.
There’s also Adjusted Expected Goals that accounts for in game situations (is it a blowout? Is a team trailing by a goal putting on the pressure in the last 10 of the 3rd period?).
Here’s a good primer.
Beginner’s Guide to Advanced Hockey Statistics – Northwestern Sports Analytics Group
Some teams now have entire departments that do nothing but analyze these stats.
That is a great article (thanks @warwick.hoy ) .it explains a lot. There's something to be said for all those analytics but the bottom line is an errant bounce of the puck here and a bad penalty there can toss those projections out the window. Those stats might work for computer models and simulation games but they still have to play the games on the ice.
Interestingly enough the article mentions John Chayka as one of the biggest proponents of using these analytics. I guarantee you he ran the numbers on Phil Kessel and not once did they work out to a lousy 14 goals in 70 games.
Don't get me wrong, they have their place in the managing of a team and tweaking the roster, but they are not an absolute by any means. Gotta go with intuition sometimes.
(A few years ago when I was coaching my son's high school team, we had a game right after a Coyotes' practice. Somebody left their printouts on the bench with all kinds of these analytics and probability tables. Was interesting to try and decipher them but I don't know how they'd be used on-the-fly by the coaching staff during a game.)
Interestingly enough the article mentions John Chayka as one of the biggest proponents of using these analytics. I guarantee you he ran the numbers on Phil Kessel and not once did they work out to a lousy 14 goals in 70 games.
Don't get me wrong, they have their place in the managing of a team and tweaking the roster, but they are not an absolute by any means. Gotta go with intuition sometimes.
(A few years ago when I was coaching my son's high school team, we had a game right after a Coyotes' practice. Somebody left their printouts on the bench with all kinds of these analytics and probability tables. Was interesting to try and decipher them but I don't know how they'd be used on-the-fly by the coaching staff during a game.)
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With hockey I don’t think anything is absolute. A lot of puck luck.
I do think the fancy stats numbers are a good gauge at who the strong play drivers are and the theory is that stronger play drivers are more successful. Especially if you zoom out and look at bigger pictures.
That doesn’t necessarily translate to results and eye test.
Still; I find it an enchanting way to analyze the game.
I do think the fancy stats numbers are a good gauge at who the strong play drivers are and the theory is that stronger play drivers are more successful. Especially if you zoom out and look at bigger pictures.
That doesn’t necessarily translate to results and eye test.
Still; I find it an enchanting way to analyze the game.
I'm not a huge fan of advanced stats and analytics. A player can have awful stats but have scored 2 goals and assisted on three in a huge win over the opponent.
Stats can't measure heart. Heart wins cups.
Fishheadjoe
Fishheadjoe
They can measure effort which is near as makes no difference; heart in my book.
Yes, and that was the worst period of the sport (IMO)...the dreaded Trap.
Especially since it followed the high-flying teams like the early-90s Penguins, the 80s Oilers and those late-70s Canadiens.
