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The end of tubes??? Thoughts?

got this from TAD this morning in their newsletter

Current Situation Regarding the Supply of Amplifier Tubes
(As of 16 March 2022) - GERMAN BELOW

Without a doubt, the current situation on the tube market can be classified as dramatic. In any case, for years, there have been only three noteworthy manufacturers of audio amplifier tubes such as 12AX7 / ECC83, EL84, EL34 and 6L6GC.

In August 2019, the largest manufacturer Shuguang closed its factory in order to move to a larger and more modern location. Unfortunately, the new production facility has not been granted permission for two years now. In the meantime, leading employees have left or have been compensated. This probably means the end of the Shuguang Electron Tube Factory.

The second major manufacturer in Russia, known mainly for the Sovtek, Electro Harmonix, Tung-Sol and Gold-Lion brands, can no longer export tubes since the Russian sanctions came into force.

This leaves only JJ as the smallest of the three big manufacturers. And their delivery time was already up to 18-20 months, even before the Russian sanctions.

REDBASE®

As we anticipated the development with Shuguang at a very early stage, we had already intensified a new cooperation with a small manufacturer in China in 2020. We knew that they had acquired the production facilities of another tube manufacturing plant that had been closed in the early 2000s, but had not yet used them for the types of tubes we required so urgently after Shuguang ceased production.

Working closely together, we facilitated a massive expansion and modernisation of the production facilities and started with the TAD 6L6GCM-STR REDBASE in spring 2021. This was followed by the TAD 6L6WGC-STR, the TAD EL34-STR, the TAD 12AU7A / ECC82 and the TAD GZ34-STR.

Currently, we are expecting the start of volume production of the new TAD ECC83WA, 7025WA, 12AX7A/7025, 12BH7A-STR and KT88-STR right now, followed by more models such as the 6V6GT-STR, 6550A-STR, 12AT7 / ECC81 and EL84-STR REDBASE series in the near future.

All REDBASE® tubes are individually tested, listened to and, if necessary, matched at TAD in Germany, thus replacing the obsolete TAD-STR and TAD-BLACKPLATE tube models.

The TAD REDBASE® series is manufactured independently of the three previous manufacturers and will significantly ease the supply situation for the mentioned tube types within the next few months.
 
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What would make that a viable business model?
If you look at high end audio products you quickly realize how cheap even the best guitar amp tubes are. You also realize that handmade, matched sets of KT-- for $2,000 are going to keep a few more small glass blowers in business outside of Russia. As I said earlier, if there was a business case to expand the manufacturing base of cheap guitar amp tubes there would be more factories and the supply would be just fine today. I rather love my tube guitar amps. I use hybrid bass amps because I like the tone of the tube front but honestly cannot tell the difference unless the power section is dimed and I can still bench more than a couple plates per side but I don't feel the desire to squat my amplifier anymore. And apparently I am not alone in this sentiment because if "we" all wanted tube amps last month as badly as "we" want them today we would have bought them, they've been available for a long time. Low demand is why tubes are scarce in the market today, the war is another factor but it's not why tubes are hard to get.
 
Some guitar players are freaking out about this, but many more are amiable to Kemper, Helix, Fractal etc than even were 5 years ago.

It seems to me like bass players have much higher uptake of solid state tech for a long time now, and it shouldn’t be such an issue here.
 
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