I think is really flooded out here, like way to much. I see so many dreamers with there prices that I think good deals got lost in the mess. Today 2 japan fenders were posted for $800 and $1300, both high, one really damn high.
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Values Dropping???
- Thread starter SilGarzaJr
- Start date
I think is really flooded out here, like way to much. I see so many dreamers with there prices that I think good deals got lost in the mess. Today 2 japan fenders were posted for $800 and $1300, both high, one really damn high.
Well, it's been that way for a very long time... but I don't believe this has much to do with the price of basses; Rather I think that is that everyone coming of age today believes that everything should be either free or insanely cheap and they never consider the secondary costs.
Fifty cents on the dollar should be pretty normal for a person-to-person transaction. Only full-fledged retailers really are entitled to more than that, because of warranties and other operating costs. And it is more in real money than a seller would get from the retailer who would subsequently resell the used item.
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We have a super-dollar making imports cheap, low fuel prices are finally filtering into the distribution network, and contrary to what most people think, we are still fighting a highly deflationary economy. Not inflationary at all.
Manufacturing prices are plummeting thanks to automation and it is also localizing. Distribution is also getting highly automated and there will be a revolution there soon with networks like Amazon's drones.
Problem is that all these automated technologies are taking a lot of jobs and thus, spending cash. There is a glut of production and still not that much money to purchase it yet, prices are crashing trying to chase what little money is out there. That will change though, freeing people from labor always benefits an economy in the long term and new industries will emerge.
This is probably just the start of things getting much, much cheaper.
The 40 hour week might not last much longer as a consequence, there isn't enough work to justify it anymore. Used to be that a workday was sunup to sundown, things change and it might be bumpy along the way.
Manufacturing prices are plummeting thanks to automation and it is also localizing. Distribution is also getting highly automated and there will be a revolution there soon with networks like Amazon's drones.
Problem is that all these automated technologies are taking a lot of jobs and thus, spending cash. There is a glut of production and still not that much money to purchase it yet, prices are crashing trying to chase what little money is out there. That will change though, freeing people from labor always benefits an economy in the long term and new industries will emerge.
This is probably just the start of things getting much, much cheaper.
The 40 hour week might not last much longer as a consequence, there isn't enough work to justify it anymore. Used to be that a workday was sunup to sundown, things change and it might be bumpy along the way.
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Pickety is wrong. Aside from thinkering with the data to prove his assumptions, he is wrong from the start. Capital in the 21st century is a popular book, and not something you should learn economics from. Actualy, USA economy is booming right now, you've got lowest reasonably possible unemployment rate and your FED/goverment is trying to cool down the economy (i'd have to elaborate why in few pages of text so i won't do that now - too much growth too fast can be bad, let's just keep it simple). USD vs EURO is now almost 1 for 1. USD was much much lower. Buying power isn't down at all but is going up. I've had a seminar few days ago - presentation that had info, and if i had the time now to translate it i thing you would understand why Pickety's book is to economics what Harry Potter is to archaeology
I would agree with most of it except the last part about robots taking our jobs
technology and production methods will almost never take our jobs, because in a way we are not competing with them, they are augmenting our productivity. Did computers make every office job obsolete? No. Problems lie in the short term -> workers should be re-qualified and or shifted - get fired and then seek jobs in other companies or make their own company. It sounds brutal, but that's how it works. Tech improves productivity and now less people are needed for certain ammount of production but that means that more people can make other goods. Like if you had 2 persons making one precision bass a month, now you have one person making 1 precision bass and another person making 1 jazz bass a month in same or different company. Everyone benefits in the long term. There are some short term shocks, yes but if goverment makes slight incursions with offering re-qualification (think about how cheap is education today with internet - khan academy for example) or even better if companies see long term benefit in having better educated work force, things could be much less stressful in transition period. But hey, workforce market is large so companies would probably chose to get someone qualified from the market than go trough risk of investing in cadre that could quit jobs after re-qualification. I could go on and on and on for pages and pages, with data and arguments but this is talkbass not talkeconomics
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- Oct 18, 2012
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I haven't noticed values dropping. In fact, I've noticed more people setting prices higher on used gear than in the past.
Like I said, it's booming for some. Just no one I know. I guess that says a lot about my economic and social status.
I truly believe many sellers UNDER-VALUE their used gear - they don't know the market value of their stuff. And because something takes a while to sell doesn't necessarily mean it isn't priced right.
Just Thumpin'
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Actually, we do look at this stuff very closely, take it very seriously and absolutely know what is going on. By way of example, as the person in the post that preceded yours alluded to, since 2010, the U.S. economy has averaged just 2.2% annual GDP growth. During the same time we have raised our prices an average of between just 1.4% and 1.6% per year. For better, or worse, during the same period the amount that we pay for employee benefits has averaged well over 15% per year, our rent has gone up by over 5% per year and raw materials costs have escalated over 5% per year as well. It is a very challenging economic environment...
Regards,
Jason
In some cases yes, in others no.
The most mass produced items like Fender basses have stayed more or less at the same price point for a while in the face of rising prices and inflation, making them cheaper in comparison. PC Video games are sort of them same way in that they've been around $50 since the mid 80s, which means they are technically cheaper now than they were then. A $1000 Fender now is technically a better value than it was 10 years ago.
By the same token the Squire series of basses have really come into their own as semi-decent instruments. They've had a fretless jazz bass that is very reasonable and the Squire version of Troy Sander's sig bass is a pretty good instrument as well. I haven't been as impressed with "entry level" instruments from Ibanez, Dean, Epiphonem etc. I have heard that the Yamaha BB424X was a pretty good deal.
The used market is its own beast. Some basses keep their value because of desirability or rarity while others drop to half their original value.
The most mass produced items like Fender basses have stayed more or less at the same price point for a while in the face of rising prices and inflation, making them cheaper in comparison. PC Video games are sort of them same way in that they've been around $50 since the mid 80s, which means they are technically cheaper now than they were then. A $1000 Fender now is technically a better value than it was 10 years ago.
By the same token the Squire series of basses have really come into their own as semi-decent instruments. They've had a fretless jazz bass that is very reasonable and the Squire version of Troy Sander's sig bass is a pretty good instrument as well. I haven't been as impressed with "entry level" instruments from Ibanez, Dean, Epiphonem etc. I have heard that the Yamaha BB424X was a pretty good deal.
The used market is its own beast. Some basses keep their value because of desirability or rarity while others drop to half their original value.
Thanks for posting, Jason. I think you summed it up. I think Rogi is right in that the economy is shaking itself out and changing and, unfortunately, many people will be left in the dust with all the wrong skills and many either cannot go through retraining or cannot afford to retrain themselves. It's harsh, but it's true.
Values Dropping???
Short answer: yes.
Medium answer: Technology and world markets are making a LOT of stuff cheaper. In some very real ways we are in a deflationary spiral in general. And technology is speeding it up for everything. Wait'll you can easily and simply print parts for your guitar, even the body.
Long answer: I don't want to depress you so I'll not go into it.
Short answer: yes.
Medium answer: Technology and world markets are making a LOT of stuff cheaper. In some very real ways we are in a deflationary spiral in general. And technology is speeding it up for everything. Wait'll you can easily and simply print parts for your guitar, even the body.
Long answer: I don't want to depress you so I'll not go into it.
They know exactly what's going on. They are niche sellers with a market that lusts after their gear. They are in a situation where lower prices won't create more demand but my damage the perception of the the brand. Sadowsky and Fodera are boutique brands that only hardcore bass players recognize; the general music populous has no idea who they are. Rickenbacker as a fan base that drools over them and then everyone else. Orange is riding their current wave of popularity that will wane whenever this recent wave of 70s nostalgia rolls back. Musicman is Musicman and have maintained the same price points for decades, which technically makes their gear cheaper today than it was at the same price 10 years ago.
If these are the brands you are hoping will reduce their prices then don't hold your breath.
SirMjac28
Patiently Waiting For The Next British Invasion
I have the same problem. I'd love a well built Warwick SS2 or 6 string Thumb for under $2k, but we all know that isn't going to happen.
Lakland had done a tremendous job with their Skyline series, almost to the detriment of their US line. As awesome as they are for the price, I still don't have $1400 in my back pocket for (another) one no matter how much I want a 5 string. Such is life.
What makes a Maserati a Maserati? The fact that I can't buy one
It's also worth mentioning that wages have been stagnant for several decades - without going into the politics of it, we know that corporate executives have seen large increases in compensation while the average blue-collar worker has actually seen a slight decrease (when adjusted for inflation) in wages. Meanwhile, as Jason pointed out, the price of everything else is going up - leaving people with less and less "discretionary" money to spend on things like instruments.
I suspect it's also true that TB may not be the best place to form a thorough hypothesis, as we are but a small microcosm of the larger music instrument business. Statistically significant perhaps, but a sliver nonetheless. And I have noted a decline in the "mid-level" ($500-$1000 used) instruments being offered for sale here. It seems to me that we have a larger percentage of boutique/high-end basses as part of the classifieds than we did just a few years ago. I've only been active again on here for the last month or so after being gone for a couple of years, so it may just be a seasonal/cyclic thing, though.
Gaolee
Official leathers tester and crash dummy
Absolutely. That's one part of it. Some of the issue is demographics causing a supply and demand imbalance. The Baby Boom is a huge number of people, and they are aging and some are selling off their old stuff. This is going to continue. The Millennials aren't to an economic point that they can afford much in the way of luxury items, and they can't afford the space to store much of anything anyway. The population dip in between means that the supply will exceed the demand for another ten years or maybe more. The Millennials will get around to prosperity, but they have generally come of age in tough economic times and are economically damaged because of it. Economic recovery, whether it touches everyone or not, won't solve this supply and demand problem until a large number of new people have the ability to buy musical instruments and the interest in buying them.
That is exactly what I said in a roundabout way.
In the short term, displaced labor is painful but the freedom from drudgery overall leads to innovation, new needs and new industry that goes far beyond the former status quo.But jobs are absolutely lost to automation, the machines did take their jerbs. So is income as the profits from automated production are concentrated in far fewer hands. 100 years ago, 80% of our economy was farm based, automation took those jobs and the entire industry is a shell of what it once was in terms of labor.
Those folks who were freed from dawn to dusk farm work went on to lead the industrial revolution. Same thing is happening now in a different way, the hordes of typists, assembly workers, phone operators, salesmen, repairmen, skilled craftsmen and laborers that used to be the foundation of a large service economy are going by the wayside. This is the painful first part, where all the old industries are displaced and old skills devalued. Those folks children though will create new opportunities though and the cycle goes on.
One thing to notice is the ease that an individual can start/improve and publicize a product now. 30 years ago there would be no Fearless cabs for instance, the means to do something like that just didn't exist 30 years ago without a lot of $$ to burn. Or even 10. You can even bypass the banks to get startup funding now.
We have been stuck with what big conglomerate companies with big overhead could effectively produce and market, that limited progress for a long time in a lot of ways. Economies of scale favored them, but no more. Barriers of entry in marketing costs, distribution costs and a restrictive retail pipeline kept competition out and choices low in most industry, those days are over.
We have been stuck with what big conglomerate companies with big overhead could effectively produce and market, that limited progress for a long time in a lot of ways. Economies of scale favored them, but no more. Barriers of entry in marketing costs, distribution costs and a restrictive retail pipeline kept competition out and choices low in most industry, those days are over.
