Values Dropping???

[socialleper]

Absolutely. That's one part of it. Some of the issue is demographics causing a supply and demand imbalance. The Baby Boom is a huge number of people, and they are aging and some are selling off their old stuff. This is going to continue. The Millennials aren't to an economic point that they can afford much in the way of luxury items, and they can't afford the space to store much of anything anyway. The population dip in between means that the supply will exceed the demand for another ten years or maybe more. The Millennials will get around to prosperity, but they have generally come of age in tough economic times and are economically damaged because of it. Economic recovery, whether it touches everyone or not, won't solve this supply and demand problem until a large number of new people have the ability to buy musical instruments and the interest in buying them.

Where I see this connecting to the state of musical instruments is that I don't think Millennials will have the same desire to buy physical instruments in the same quantities that their parents and grandparents did. Being a "rock star" is just another busted career path to them. It is a lot of work, almost zero pay these days, and may look like a relic of a bygone era to them. My step-son said music with real instruments sounds "old" to him. For kids coming up these days there isn't much of an incentive to learn to play an instrument. Once they get that disposable income (which they have plenty of as the scions of the over indulgent gen-xers that buy them every electronic gizmo) they probably won't buy guitars and basses with it. They will by software and sequencing equipment, maybe some microphones. For them a Jimi Hendrix is a funny looking dude in a video game, not an idol.

 

[Gaolee]

I'm not that pessimistic, since my son is one of those kids, and he's a professional trumpet player now. Likewise, I played in a band with a singer and drummer who are millennials, and now I'm playing with a guitarist and bass player who are millennials. A couple more singers I just did a show with are millennials. With the exception of my son, none of them have any intention of turning it into a career, but they all will probably get around to buying instruments of various kinds when they can. The market may be smaller because some of them prefer electronics and electronic instruments, but there have always been distractions that aren't music.

Maybe it's just the people I have been lucky enough to be around, but I have found young people to be just as interested in music of all kinds as anybody else. They put their own twist on it, but they also show a lot of enthusiasm for music that you wouldn't expect them to even know about.

 

[lomo]

Pickety is wrong.

Apologies for the aside, but based on rebuttals I have been reading since our pm's early today, and on 3rd party analysis in the Economist, NY Times and elsewhere, I have seen no convincing evidence that he is wrong, only that his analysis and numbers aren't perfect, which is certainly to be expected from any treatise of this scope. Obviously, many are eager to disagree with him, and I will continue to seek out opinions and analysis opposing his views.

As far as dropping values go, the market for used bass gear is clearly much softer than when the economy was better. I have to smile at the post above describing tech innovations as "freeing people from work" (or something similAR), ROFLMAO. I fully understand the concept that they can now theoretically contribute (and earn) in other more lofty ways, but I suspect that is a very small silver lining around a rather large cumulus.

 

[MrLenny1]

I agree, prices keep on falling.
I have items that i thought would hold their value and increase.
They keep dropping.

 

[SirMjac28]

I have the same problem. I'd love a well built Warwick SS2 or 6 string Thumb for under $2k, but we all know that isn't going to happen.
Lakland had done a tremendous job with their Skyline series, almost to the detriment of their US line. As awesome as they are for the price, I still don't have $1400 in my back pocket for (another) one no matter how much I want a 5 string. Such is life.
What makes a Maserati a Maserati? The fact that I can't buy one

+1000000

 

[Old Blastard]

My fellow bassists, after perusing comments on several other Internet forums and sites, I would like to point out that this thread is in violation of the Internet rules of order as no one is shouting out rude names or being obnoxiously trollish. Please let take care of that issue by saying IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ME YOU SUCK AND ARE STUPID!!!!!!

Thank you. Please continue with a very enlightening and read-worthy discussion. I am actually enjoying this and learning a few things. Y'all rock.

 

[socialleper]

My fellow bassists, after perusing comments on several other Internet forums and sites, I would like to point out that this thread is in violation of the Internet rules of order as no one is shouting out rude names or being obnoxiously trollish. Please let take care of that issue by saying IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ME YOU SUCK AND ARE STUPID!!!!!!

Thank you. Please continue with a very enlightening and read-worthy discussion. I am actually enjoying this and learning a few things. Y'all rock.

Its because we are bass players. We are the reasonable ones.

 

[Robroy]

Pickety is wrong. Aside from thinkering with the data to prove his assumptions, he is wrong from the start. Capital in the 21st century is a popular book, and not something you should learn economics from. Actualy, USA economy is booming right now, you've got lowest reasonably possible unemployment rate and your FED/goverment is trying to cool down the economy (i'd have to elaborate why in few pages of text so i won't do that now - too much growth too fast can be bad, let's just keep it simple).

Why are they not raising interest rates?

My theory: The economy sucks and the stats we are seeing are nothing more than fun with numbers. Shadowstats has some nice info on it.

Regarding robots, I'm not worried about them taking our jobs. Rather, it's more along the lines of this:

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[TMARK]

Why are they not raising interest rates?

My theory: The economy sucks and the stats we are seeing are nothing more than fun with numbers. Shadowstats has some nice info on it.

Regarding robots, I'm not worried about them taking our jobs. Rather, it's more along the lines of this:

[Invalid or Expired Link Removed]

I don't think the economy necessarily sucks, depending on where you are in it, but it is certainly fragile. As you obviously know, cheap credit lets people buy stuff and keep the ball rolling. The difference between now and 2007 is that more people are using cheap credit to keep afloat, rather than add to the glut in land fills.

On AI: Yup. Really not OK.

 

[BigBigGuy44]

Up until recently, it was very common for large online retailers to throw around heavy discounts and deals. I for one became very accustom to this practice, which makes it very difficult to buy anything at or close to street price. This is also reflected in the used market. Discounts on new products have been so great that discounts on used products have to fall even further to get a sale.

 

[drummer5359]

True, and as far as older things--often mistakenly called "antiques"--a lot of this has to do with eBay and places like that. Now everyone thinks just because they have a full set of Flintstones jelly jar glasses from 1974, they must be worth a fortune!

Nah, everyone knows that the 1962 Flintstone's Welch's jelly jars are the ones to own...

 

[SamJ]

I don't see the prices dropping on any of the gear I'm currently lusting over.

Exactly! I couldn't get a single dime off the asking price on the Alembic I just bought.. literally not a dime.

 

[ROGI]

Why are they not raising interest rates?

ISML curve -> cos dolar value is rising. USD behaves different than most other currencies. Whatever doomsdayers are saying, US economy is booming coupled with the high demand of USD, intrest rates should drop instead, but they can't drop to zero or below zero (lol, that would be fun). in some way, rising dollar value is an interest rate by itself. you can observe it as such.

 

[ROGI]

Apologies for the aside, but based on rebuttals I have been reading since our pm's early today, and on 3rd party analysis in the Economist, NY Times and elsewhere, I have seen no convincing evidence that he is wrong, only that his analysis and numbers aren't perfect, which is certainly to be expected from any treatise of this scope. Obviously, many are eager to disagree with him, and I will continue to seek out opinions and analysis opposing his views.

As far as dropping values go, the market for used bass gear is clearly much softer than when the economy was better. I have to smile at the post above describing tech innovations as "freeing people from work" (or something similAR), ROFLMAO. I fully understand the concept that they can now theoretically contribute (and earn) in other more lofty ways, but I suspect that is a very small silver lining around a rather large cumulus.

We have a good thing going on, man I don't care about the sides, just about what's the underlying cause (truth). I did come of as a jerk, bashing him without real arguments, and i didnt read his book page to page, true. But from what i've read i've see that he ignores much of the important things -wealth generation, opportunity costs, real causes of wealth inequality, and general attitude that wealthy are eating our wealth away. they took 'ur wealth. Every decent work should have it's agruments and point out to contra-agruments and try to rebute itself. didn't find that in his book on the first fast runtrough. maybe it's hidden between the lines somewhere. The tone of the book sound slike "rich are bad and they took our money away, let's take it back". He talks about taxes, but doesn't mention one fundamental thing that paying taxes is a choice between paying low taxes and evading high taxes. Raise the taxes for the rich, and you'll get less of them. He doesn't mention (correct me if i'm wrong) how to really motivate the rich to pay their share to society. just "paying taxes" is a popular thing to say, it's thing that wins elections, but it really isn't the solution. Now, i won't start the criticism again until i've read the whole book. cover to cover. Then i'll correct every wrong thing i've said but won't give quarter to rubbish economy - political buzzwords....

Right now, i've got to study for public finances exam wish me luck! then, when i get the break, then...Pickety, watch out!!!!

And i've only focused on taxes, cos taxes are my thing, man!

 

[lomo]

but doesn't mention one fundamental thing that paying taxes is a choice between paying low taxes and evading high taxes

BTW he does address, in detail, the issue of wealth moving to seek lower tax rates. You may not like his perspective, however. It's worth reading cover to cover IME.

Good luck on your exam!

 

[Big Brother]

I have to smile at the post above describing tech innovations as "freeing people from work" (or something similAR), ROFLMAO. I fully understand the concept that they can now theoretically contribute (and earn) in other more lofty ways, but I suspect that is a very small silver lining around a rather large cumulus.

Perhaps you are picturing this in the short term, where I distinctly made the point that 'their children' would benefit. The folks locked into an old skillset are not going to like it.

If you want to mock me, at least understand the point so you can mock at it correctly. Point in history is the cotton gin, after it 'freed' people from separating the seeds by hand, the demand for cotton plantation labor grew from 700K to 3 million as cotton grew cheap and demand soared. The sudden availability of cotton as a raw material rippled through all kinds of industries and led to new occupations that didn't exist before.

Same with the printing press, the wheat thresher, the assembly line, the computer - automated equipment and processes lead to stronger economies in the long run. I am sure you noticed that displaced pool typists and phone operators of the 60s and 70s are no longer employed, now we have Apple, Intel, IBM etc. It didn't happen overnight but the elimination of labor intensive processes eventually led to a far stronger economy - every time it happened.

The insulting part is being patronized by someone who says ROFLMAO...

 

[Robroy]

ISML curve -> cos dolar value is rising. USD behaves different than most other currencies. Whatever doomsdayers are saying, US economy is booming coupled with the high demand of USD, intrest rates should drop instead, but they can't drop to zero or below zero (lol, that would be fun). in some way, rising dollar value is an interest rate by itself. you can observe it as such.

Doomsayers:
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On a side note, one thing I like to watch is the Baltic Dry Index.

 

[Robroy]

I am sure you noticed that displaced pool typists and phone operators of the 60s and 70s are no longer employed, now we have Apple, Intel, IBM etc.

It's not that they are no longer employed. Rather, they have different jobs now. I was a COBOL programmer for a couple of decades. I just left an MVC 5 (c# based) and Oracle shop and now work in a similar shop, though I'm focusing on SQL Server this week.

BTW, my friends and I joke that the most useful class we took in high school (I'm 61, btw) was typing. I liked it so much I took two semesters. Man, is it paying off to this day.

 

[Big Brother]

It's not that they are no longer employed. Rather, they have different jobs now. I was a COBOL programmer for a couple of decades. I just left an MVC 5 (c# based) and Oracle shop and now work in a similar shop, though I'm focusing on SQL Server this week.

BTW, my friends and I joke that the most useful class we took in high school (I'm 61, btw) was typing. I liked it so much I took two semesters. Man, is it paying off to this day.

That's the point. One person can now write software that does the work of a room full of typists or phone operators. Check that- it can do the work of thousands of rooms full of typists and operators...

I used pool typist and phone operator specifically because two family members were 'downsized' from those jobs when computer automation came around in the 70s. The trade-off has been very beneficial for society, not quite as beneficial in the short term for my relatives though, they lost their careers. But eventually found better ones that were better paying and less repetitive.

And yeah, typing classes paid off for sure! It seemed like a good way to fill an hour of high school at the time.

 

[lomo]

If you want to mock me, at least understand the point so you can mock at it correctly.

The insulting part is being patronized by someone who says ROFLMAO...

I did not intend to mock you, and I fully understood what you said. As far as your insult that my use of ROFLMAO is low-brow, I respectfully implore you to get over yourself.