• TalkBass has been independent since 1998. Add your voice.
    Create a free account to reply to discussions, view embedded media, and browse with fewer display ads.
    Join freeLog in
    Want zero display ads or expanded classifieds tools? Compare plans.

What ya think UFO’s

Do you believe?

  • Yes. It’s gotta be true

    Votes: 33 44.6%
  • No. Crazy talk.

    Votes: 24 32.4%
  • Maybe. Explain

    Votes: 17 23.0%

  • Total voters
    74
I'm an engineer by profession - I'm rooted in science, the scientific method, observable, repeatable results, and the like. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about probability and statistics.


Probability and statistics are only valid when applied to real data.

Presently we have knowledge of life evolving on exactly one planet.

Probability and statistics are meaningless when applied to one data point.

We dont have to like it, but that's what the science says.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gln1955 and Plake
I believe there are UFOs as well as extra terrestrial life out. However, if I was one of them and saw what was going on down here, I think I’d kind of want to stay incognito too.

Lol. This thread is reminding me of a movie I saw at the theater about a UFO landing in someone’s backyard. It’s actually pretty funny. It’s called “Jules”.

448E9AD6-7E1A-4596-8A97-677C26AED63D.jpeg
 
I'm a physicist by trade. But if the laws of physics are up in the air, then I'm no more qualified than anybody else to speculate, and I don't even know why physics needs to be involved. There are plenty of disciplines that study the truth without recourse to the laws of physics, including philosophy, theology, and poetry.

To the ancients, the moon, sun, and planets, were UFOs. Nobody knew why they appeared and disappeared. They were described in terms that were familiar. They didn't know about the interstellar vacuum, so they assumed that the UFOs had wings. The sun only needed a chariot and four winged horses to get from A to B. Today, those things are known to be permanent fixtures of our surroundings, made of normal stuff. Galileo supposed that comets were just atmospheric disturbances.
 
When I express deep skepticism regarding extraterrestrial claims, it isn't because I'm foolish, arrogant, or reject the possibility out of dogmatism, as the cosmos seems likely to support other forms of life (see the Drake Equation and other scientific attempts to quantify likelihood). Rather, the phrase "I don't want to believe; I want to know." comes to mind, in the sense I want solid intersubjectively verifiable evidence before I take a firm epistemic stand. And given the constraints placed by the laws of physics, that evidence will need to be extraordinary, meaning that personal testimonies alone are insufficient in this particular case, though fascinating.

I'm a physicist by trade. But if the laws of physics are up in the air, then I'm no more qualified than anybody else to speculate, and I don't even know why physics needs to be involved. There are plenty of disciplines that study the truth without recourse to the laws of physics, including philosophy, theology, and poetry.
A poetry reading may very well provide significant insight into the phenomenon... if we want a metaphorical understanding rather than a scientific one.

From a scientific perspective, the laws of physics are necessarily involved, placing strict limits on the possibility of interstellar travel. Would be nice to get a physicist's explanation of the practical limits of interstellar travel.

What I see above, and elsewhere, is a relative to the god-of-the-gaps argument used against evolutionary theory, except in this case it is extraterrestrials-of-the-gaps. Basically, people using such an argument claim that there is a reasonable basis to believe a certain questionable proposition to be true because science is unable to provide an absolutely complete explanation of the phenomenon, with the gaps in understanding supposedly acting as supporting evidence. However, gaps in understanding are not evidence per se, but merely point to gaps in the evidence, leaving certain possibilities open, but not confirmed, and often highly improbable. This specious form of argument is also used to attempt to bring mysticism into the study of consciousness via the "mysteries" of quantum mechanics. It is important to recognize that this form of argument is not logically sound, so it should not be convincing to, nor made by, a reasonable individual.

This is why I would like to see a thorough explanation of how the laws of physics as presently understood constrain the possibility of extraterrestrial travel, as well as some explanation of how and why we know these laws to be reliable and accurate descriptions of physical reality. Also interesting would be to know about gaps in our current scientific understanding and which of these gaps might facilitate interstellar travel, as well as theoretically qualified speculation on the possibility that any such notions could hold true in reality.

Finally, my view on this topic is based on my desire to have a set of beliefs that are evidentially supported and consistent with our best current scientific understanding of reality. I aim to fit my beliefs to the best current understanding of reality and that requires solid evidence. I rely greatly on science for this because I, like all humans, am personally limited and fallible in terms of ascertaining information about reality. My skepticism goes so deep that if I were to witness a UFO personally, I would want scientists and medical professionals to check me out to ensure that my experience was not due to some sensory or cognitive issue. That said, I see unknown moving objects pretty much every time I use my telescope, assuming that most are probably satellites, with perhaps the odd meteor.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Plake
Probability and statistics are only valid when applied to real data.

Presently we have knowledge of life evolving on exactly one planet.

Probability and statistics are meaningless when applied to one data point.

We dont have to like it, but that's what the science says.

P&S as applied to a set of conditions that resulted in the formation of ‘life’ (as we know it). Now expand that even more to include non-carbon based life forms. The sets of conditions are out there - stop limiting your viewpoint by claiming science supports it.
 
P&S as applied to a set of conditions that resulted in the formation of ‘life’ (as we know it). Now expand that even more to include non-carbon based life forms. The sets of conditions are out there - stop limiting your viewpoint by claiming science supports it.

The "viewpoint" is limited by the fact that we have knowledge of only one planet with life on it in the entire universe.

By definition, anything we "expand" to further than that is pure speculation.

No one is stopping scientists from thinking about extraterrestrial life. In fact, I actively support it. I've been a dues paying member of The Planetary Society since 1980, and I once even did a stint of using my home computer to participate in the SETI data crunching project.
 
  • Like
Reactions: fig
I believed as a youngster watching Sci-Fi movies and seeing photos and videos of blurry blobs of light that UFO's were real but as time went on (and now today considering that 90% of the world has phone cameras) why are the photos still blurry, fuzzy dots just like the 50's ~ 60's?
I have seen the most outrageous videos that have captured pretty detailed plane crashes, rockets blowing up, weird animals, etc.
OK where are all of the decent UFO photos or videos? I would think at least dozens if not hundreds or thousands of pieces of clear photo or video evidence would be out there since there are video cameras EVERYWHERE now.

CAUTION! Graphic video of WTC plane crash - Watch at your own discretion!

Show me a CLEAR...not an AI produced or photoshopped video or photo of a UFO more detailed like the example video above and maybe I'll start to change my mind.

upload_2023-8-19_16-23-51.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: fig
I would tend to trust the opinion of Carl Jung over someone like Carl Sagan.

This sort of view is rather puzzling. Sagan was a scientist, committed to using the scientific method to find the truth about reality, while Jung's views tended toward pseudoscience. However, I think that psychology may tell us quite a bit about purported human extraterrestrial experiences as it seems more likely that a psychological explanation would offer useful answers than anything from beyond Earth. Humans are extremely fallible, unreliable, unobjective, observers. Rather than privilege a human point of view, I would tend to discount it in favor of dispassionate scientific analysis. Humans have been anthropomorphically projecting for millennia. See also pareidolia. If I wanted to know the truth about extraterrestrials, Sagan's methodology is the obvious choice.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gln1955